Experts Raise Expectations for Home Price Growth in 2018

Biggest surprise of the 2017 housing market was the lack of single-family home building

Seattle, WA – Dec. 5, 2017 (PRNewswire) Housing experts are increasing their expectations for home price appreciation as rising prices show no signs of slowing.

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Experts expect home prices to climb 4.1 percent in 2018, according to the 2017 Q4 Zillow® Home Price Expectations Survey(i), an increase in their expectations for 2018. One year ago, experts predicted home prices would grow 3 percent in 2018.

The quarterly survey, sponsored by Zillow and conducted by Pulsenomics LLC, asked more than 100 housing experts, market strategists, and economists about their expectations for the U.S. housing market in 2018 and beyond.

The United States is in the middle of a supply crisis – the number of homes for sale has fallen on an annual basis for the past 33 straight months. Although building activity picked up slightly toward the end of the year, the biggest surprise of the 2017 housing market was the slow pace of single-family home building, according to the panelists. Only 16.7 percent expect it to change in 2018, a sign that limited inventory will still be a driving force in the housing market next year.

Experts believe 2017’s low mortgage rates are likely to rise next year to around 4.5 percent from the current rate of about 3.9 percent. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has hovered around historical lows for years, and is well below the 6 percent rates seen during the run up to the housing bubble.

“The American labor market is stronger than it’s been in decades and Americans, particularly young Americans, are increasingly feeling confident enough to buy homes,” said Zillow senior economist Aaron Terrazas. “Home building has not kept pace with this surge in demand and remains well below historical norms. We don’t expect that these demand-supply imbalances will fundamentally shift in 2018: Demand will continue to grow and, though supply should increase somewhat, we still won’t build enough new homes to meet this demand, contributing to higher prices. Higher mortgage rates will eat into buyers’ budgets, putting even more price pressure on the most affordable homes for sale. Unless there is a fundamental shift in the number and type of homes for sale, this is the new normal of the American housing market.”

The panelists were also asked to predict the 30-year fixed mortgage rate, the homeownership rate, unemployment rate, and real income growth rate at the end of next year. These are their expectations:

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Although unusual supply-demand dynamics will likely generate home value appreciation in the foreseeable future, most experts believe that the nation-wide rate of increase will diminish. “All but two of the 108 panelists who responded to this quarter’s survey expect weaker home value growth next year relative to 2017, and panel-wide, returns are expected to average less than three percent per year after 2018,” said Pulsenomics founder Terry Loebs. “In a low-inflation environment, nominal housing gains in the three- to four-percent neighborhood will still create homeowner wealth at a pace exceeding the pre-bubble norm.”

Despite the positive overall outlook concerning home values in the near-to-intermediate term, disparate views persist within the panel. “Our most optimistic group of experts projects average annual home value appreciation of almost 5 percent annually through the five-year period ending in 2022, while the most pessimistic group expects an average annual rate of just 1.4 percent,” Loebs said. “I don’t foresee a stronger consensus emerging until we have greater clarity concerning tax reform and the pace of entry-level home building.”

Zillow
Zillow is the leading real estate and rental marketplace dedicated to empowering consumers with data, inspiration and knowledge around the place they call home, and connecting them with the best local professionals who can help. In addition, Zillow operates an industry-leading economics and analytics bureau led by Zillow’s Chief Economist Dr. Svenja Gudell. Dr. Gudell and her team of economists and data analysts produce extensive housing data and research covering more than 450 markets at Zillow Real Estate Research. Zillow also sponsors the quarterly Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey, which asks more than 100 leading economists, real estate experts and investment and market strategists to predict the path of the Zillow Home Value Index over the next five years. Launched in 2006, Zillow is owned and operated by Zillow Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: Z and ZG), and headquartered in Seattle.

Zillow is a registered trademark of Zillow, Inc.

Pulsenomics:
Pulsenomics LLC (www.pulsenomics.com) is an independent research and consulting firm that specializes in data analytics, new product and index development for institutional clients in the financial and real estate arenas. Pulsenomics also designs and manages expert surveys and consumer polls to identify trends and expectations that are relevant to effective business management and monitoring economic health. Pulsenomics LLC is the author of The Home Price Expectations Survey™, The U.S. Housing Confidence Survey, and The U.S. Housing Confidence Index. Pulsenomics®, The Housing Confidence Index™, and The Housing Confidence Survey™ are trademarks of Pulsenomics LLC.

(i) This edition of the Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey surveyed 108 experts between October 24-November 6, 2017. The survey was conducted by Pulsenomics LLC on behalf of Zillow, Inc. and asked the experts about their expectations for the housing market.

(ii) Freddie Mac PMMS on Nov. 22, 2017

(iii) https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/files/currenthvspress.pdf

(iv) https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

(v) https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/realer_10132017.pdf

Where’s a Marketing Budget to Go?

Source: Statista

Creating content is the top goal for marketing pros around the world. According to figures compiled by communications and marketing agency Cognito, 61 percent of the 165 marketing leaders they interviewed for a survey named creating content as the area where more of their marketing budget will be invested in 2018. This makes sense, as in the previous report only 18 percent of respondents were happy with the content they could market.

Investor relations (71 percent) and public affairs (69 percent) featured in the two top positions of areas where investment will remain the same. The top loser according to the survey will be traditional advertising, with 40 percent of marketing leaders wanting to invest less.

These developments could have negative implications for traditional media outlets, as the volume of content published or disseminated by company marketers could more strongly compete with traditional publishing content. Diverting dollars from traditional advertising could also negatively affect heritage media ad revenue. This chart was first published by our partner FIPP.

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A Look at the 2017 Foreclosure Market and the Future in 2018

Analysis of 2017 foreclosures real estate market and forecast for 2018

Miami, FL – Nov. 20, 2017 (PRNewswire) The following is an analysis on the 2017 foreclosure market and the future in 2018 from BankForeclosuresSale.com.

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With 2017 coming to an end, real estate investors and homebuyers alike are taking a look back at the development of the foreclosure market over the past 10 months. They’re also turning their attention to the 2018 market, with a focus on market trends, recent changes in real estate law, and if the political landscape will have any impact.

“It’s important for real estate investors and homebuyers to have a clear understanding of the foreclosure market, as past data and current trends can have a big impact on future decisions,” said Simon Campbell, Foreclosure Specialist of Bankforeclosuressale.com. “Even when the market appears to be steady, one thing we’ve seen in the past is that things don’t always stay the same for long.”

According to ATTOM Data Solutions, a provider of publicly recorded tax, deed, mortgage and foreclosure data, there were 424,800 foreclosure filings on United States properties during the first six months of 2017, signifying a decrease of 20 percent from the same period of 2016.

While the overall national trend was a decrease in foreclosure filings, some states and cities bucked the trend with an increase in activity. Here are some key data points provided by ATTOM:

  • Eight states, along with Washington, D.C., saw a year over year increase in foreclosures during the fix six months of the year.
  • Washington, D.C. experienced the largest increase, with foreclosure activity jumping 60 percent over the previous year.
  • Of the 217 metropolitan areas included in the report, 28 experienced an increase in foreclosures, with Oklahoma City leading the way at 22 percent.
  • New Jersey had the highest foreclosure rate during the first half of the year, with 0.99 percent of properties with a foreclosure.
  • The highest metro foreclosure rates belong to Atlantic City, New Jersey at 1.71 percent of properties, followed by Trenton, Philadelphia, Chicago and Pennsylvania.

Daren Blomquist, senior vice president with ATTOM Data Solutions, added the following in regards to the market in general:

“Although foreclosures are fading overall, there has been a notable an uptick in foreclosures completed by some non-bank entities — counter to the sharp downward foreclosure trend among big banks and government-backed loans.”

2018: A Big Year for the Real Estate Market
The Great Recession finally came to an end in 2009, after millions upon millions of Americans were forced into foreclosure.

According to Fannie Mae, the waiting period following a foreclosure is seven years, with the agency noting the following: “A seven-year waiting period is required, and is measured from the completion date of the foreclosure action as reported on the credit report or other foreclosure documents provided by the borrower.”

With this seven-year period coming to an end for those who faced foreclosure toward the end of the Great Recession, there’s reason to believe that the real estate market could pick back up.

Campbell said, “There’s no way of knowing if these buyers will dip their toes into the homeowner pool once again, but the possibility is definitely there. This alone could have a big impact on the real estate market as a whole in the year to come.”

To learn more about the foreclosure listings market or to search for foreclosed homes please visit Bankforeclosuressale.com online.

Media Contact:
Simon Campbell
Email: scampbell@bankforeclosuressale.com

National Association of REALTORS® Installs 2018 Leadership

Chicago, IL – November 6, 2017 (nar.realtor) Elizabeth Mendenhall, a sixth-generation Realtor® from Columbia, Missouri was installed today as 2018 president of the National Association of Realtors® during the REALTORS® Conference & Expo in Chicago.

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Mendenhall was NAR’s 2017 president-elect and 2016 first vice president. She has been a Realtor® for 20 years and is CEO of RE/MAX Boone Realty. On the national level, Mendenhall currently serves on the Executive Committee and board of directors. She holds numerous designations and chaired NAR’s Strategic Planning Committee in 2012, served as vice president of committees in 2011 and was the NAR liaison to association leadership in 2008. In 2010, Mendenhall served as president of Missouri Realtors®, and in 2003 she was elected president of the Columbia Board of Realtors® and was named their Realtor® of the Year.

John Smaby is 2018 NAR president-elect. Smaby is a second-generation Realtor® and has been in the industry for 38 years. He is a broker at Edina Realty in Edina, Minnesota, where he specializes in residential real estate. Smaby has held numerous positions nationally and with Minnesota Realtors®, where he served as president in 2015 and treasurer in 2013. In 2013, Smaby received Minnesota’s Ed Anderson Political Achievement Award, and in 2014, he was named their Realtor® of the Year.

Vince Malta is 2018 first vice president. He is a third-generation Realtor® and CEO and broker of Malta & Co. Inc. in San Francisco. Malta has been in real estate for nearly 40 years and has served in countless roles. On the national level, he has testified before Congress multiple times on behalf of NAR, served on the board of directors since 2002, and was the 2011 vice president of government affairs. In 2002, Malta became a California Association of Realtors® honorary member for life, in 2006 he served as CAR president, and in 2007, he was awarded the state’s Realtor® of the Year.

Thomas Riley, a Realtor® from Bedford, New Hampshire is the 2018 treasurer. He has been a Realtor® for more than 36 years and is president of Riley Enterprises Inc., specializing in residential and commercial real estate and property management. Riley was NAR treasurer in 2017 and chaired both the Finance Committee and the Reserve Investment Advisory Board. In 2015, he was NAR vice president for Region 1, serving Connecticut, Massachusetts, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont. Riley served as president of New Hampshire Realtors® in 2011 and president of the Greater Manchester/Nashua Board of Realtors® in 1998.

Colleen Badagliacco from Morgan Hill, California is 2018 NAR vice president, association affairs. She has been a Realtor® for nearly 40 years and is the broker/associate for Legacy Real Estate & Associates, where she specializes in single-family brokerage. Badagliacco holds numerous professional designations and in 2016 served as NAR’s vice president for Region 13, comprised of California, Hawaii and Guam. She has been a member of the board of directors since 1995 and is a Realtor® Political Action Committee Hall of Fame member. The California Association of Realtors® elected her president in 2007, the same year Badagliacco was named as the state’s Realtor® of the Year; the Santa Clara County Association of Realtors® elected her president in 1992.

Kenny Parcell is 2018 NAR vice president, government affairs. Parcell, a Realtor® for nearly 20 years, is from Salt Lake City, Utah, and is the director of business development for Equity Real Estate, where he specializes in single-family brokerage. Kenny served as an NAR liaison to committees in 2017, 2015, 2013 and 2012, and as vice president in 2016 for Region 11, representing Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming. The Utah Association of Realtors® elected him president in 2011 and named him Realtor® of the Year in 2013. He served as president of the Utah County Association of Realtors® in 2008.

William E. Brown is 2018 immediate past president. He has been active in real estate for 36 years and is the founder of Investment Properties, a division of the family real estate business. Brown has served in numerous positions at the local, state and national levels, including as NAR’s 2017 president, 2016 first vice president and 2015 president-elect. Brown was an NAR committee liaison in 2006 and 2011, and 2012 vice president for Region 13, comprised of California, Hawaii and Guam. In 2008, he served as the California Association of Realtors® president and was honored as Realtor® of the Year. Brown was elected president of the Oakland Association of Realtors® in 1984.

NAR’s 2018 regional vice presidents are:

  • Dave Wluka, Sharon, Massachusetts, Region 1: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Vermont;
  • Linda Page, Rhinebeck, New York, Region 2: New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania;
  • Mark Mansour, Barboursville, West Virginia, Region 3: Delaware, District of Columbia, Maryland, Virginia and West Virginia;
  • Randall Thomas, Kingsport, Tennessee Region 4: Kentucky, North Carolina, South Carolina and Tennessee;
  • Steven Fischer, Savannah, Georgia, Region 5: Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands;
  • John J. Lynch, Westlake, Ohio, Region 6: Michigan and Ohio;
  • K.C. Maurer, Appleton, Wisconsin, Region 7: Illinois, Indiana and Wisconsin;
  • Dewey Uhlir, Fargo, North Dakota, Region 8: Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota;
  • Jim Gamble, Overland Park, Kansas, Region 9: Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri and Oklahoma;
  • Scott Kesner, El Paso, Texas, Region 10: Louisiana and Texas;
  • Cathy Colvin, Albuquerque, New Mexico, Region 11: Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming;
  • Collin Mullane, Talent, Oregon, Region 12: Alaska, Idaho, Montana, Oregon and Washington; and
  • Beth Peerce, Los Angeles, California, Region 13: California, Hawaii and Guam.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.