Tag Archives: corelogic

US Annual Home Price Growth Slows but Still Up by Over 5% in February

Posted on by
Reply
  • U.S. single-family home prices rose by 5.5% year over year in February and are expected to taper to 3.1% growth by February 2025.
  • Four of the top five states with the highest annual home price growth are in the Northeast: New Jersey, Rhode Island, Maine and Connecticut
  • The five states where home prices remain furthest from the summer 2022 peak are Idaho, Washington, Utah, Vermont and Montana
  • The Miami and San Diego metro areas continued to lead the country for annual growth in February, both at about 10%.

Irvine, CA – April 02, 2024 (BUSINESS WIRE) CoreLogic®, a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for February 2024.

U.S. annual home price growth remained mostly consistent with numbers seen since last fall in February but finally slowed as the residual impact of comparing gains with weak 2022 home prices wore off. CoreLogic projects that year-over-year home price gains will continue to rise at a slower pace for the rest of 2024, which suggests more certainty for potential homebuyers who have been waiting to get a foot in the door. As noted in the most recent US CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index report, an increase in for-sale inventory also benefits potential homebuyers, though affordability remains a concern, particularly if mortgage rates remain elevated throughout the spring homebuying season.

“Home price growth pivoted in February, as the impact of the January 2023 Home Price Index bottom finally faded,” said Dr. Selma Hepp, chief economist for CoreLogic. “As a result, the U.S. should begin to see slowing annual home price gains moving forward.”

“Nevertheless,” Hepp continued, “with a 0.7% increase from January to February 2024, which is almost double the monthly increase recorded before the pandemic, spring home price gains are already off to a strong start despite continued mortgage rate volatility. That said, more inventory finally coming to market will likely translate to more options for buyers and fewer bidding wars, which typically keeps outsized price growth in check. Still, despite affordability challenges, homebuyer demand appears to favor already expensive, coastal markets with a limited availability of properties for sale.”

Top Takeaways:

  • U.S. single-family home prices (including distressed sales) increased by 5.5% year over year in February 2024 compared with February 2023. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 0.7% compared with January 2024.
  • In February, the annual appreciation of detached properties (5.8%) was 1.2 percentage points higher than that of attached properties (4.6%).
  • CoreLogic’s forecast shows annual U.S. home price gains relaxing to 3.1% in February 2025.
  • Miami posted the highest year-over-year home price increase of the country’s 10 highlighted metro areas in January, at 10.2%. San Diego saw the next-highest gain at 9.9%.
  • Among states, South Dakota ranked first for annual appreciation in January (up by 13.8%), followed by New Jersey (up by 12.5%) and Rhode Island (up by 11.6%). Only Idaho recorded a year-over-year home price loss of -0.1%.

The next CoreLogic HPI press release, featuring March 2024 data, is scheduled to be issued on May 7, 2024, at 8 a.m. EST.

Methodology

The CoreLogic HPI™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 45 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the Single-Family Combined tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.

CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers — Single-Family Combined (both attached and detached) and Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales. As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index.

About Market Risk Indicators

Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics solution that provide monthly updates on the overall health of housing markets across the country. CoreLogic data scientists combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price reduction.

About the Market Condition Indicators

As part of the CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecasts offerings, Market Condition Indicators are available for all metropolitan areas and identify individual markets as overvalued, at value or undervalued. These indicators are derived from the long-term fundamental values, which are a function of real disposable income per capita. Markets are labeled as overvalued if the current home price indexes exceed their long-term values by greater than 10% and undervalued where the long-term values exceed the index levels by greater than 10%.

Source: CoreLogic

The data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient’s publication or broadcast. This data may not be resold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient’s parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact Robin Wachner at newsmedia@corelogic.com. For sales inquiries, visit https://www.corelogic.com/support/sales-contact/. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. The data are compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.

About CoreLogic

CoreLogic is a leading provider of property insights and innovative solutions, working to transform the property industry by putting people first. Using its network, scale, connectivity and technology, CoreLogic delivers faster, smarter, more human-centered experiences that build better relationships, strengthen businesses and ultimately create a more resilient society. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.

CORELOGIC, the CoreLogic logo, CoreLogic HPI and CoreLogic HPI Forecast are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

Contacts

Media Contact:
Robin Wachner
newsmedia@corelogic.com

Sales Contact:
https://www.corelogic.com/support/sales-contact/

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Continues To Trend Upward In January 2024

Posted on by
Reply

New York, NY – March 26, 2024 (PRNewswire) S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the January 2024 results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. The leading measure of U.S. home prices shows that three out of the 20 major metro markets reported month-over-month price increases. More than 27 years of history are available for the data series and can be accessed in full by going to www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-family/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.0% annual gain in January, up from a 5.6% rise in the previous month. The 10-City Composite showed an increase of 7.4%, up from a 7.0% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 6.6%, up from a 6.2% increase in the previous month. San Diego again reported the highest year-over-year gain among the 20 cities with an 11.2% increase in January, followed by Los Angeles, with an increase of 8.6%. Portland, though holding the lowest rank after reporting the smallest year-over-year growth, retained an upward trend with a 0.9% increase this month.

MONTH-OVER-MONTH

The U.S. National Index and the 20-City Composite showed a continued decrease of 0.1%, and 10-City Composite remained unchanged in January.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index, the 20-City Composite, and the 10-City Composite all posted month-over-month increases of 0.4%, 0.1%, and 0.2% respectively.

ANALYSIS

“U.S. home prices continued their drive higher,” says Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Our National Composite rose by 6% in January, the fastest annual rate since 2022.  Stronger gains came from our 10- and 20-City Composite indices, rising 7.4% and 6.6%, respectively.  For the second consecutive month, all cities reported increases in annual prices, with San Diego surging 11.2%.  On a seasonal adjusted basis, home prices have continued to break through previous all-time highs set last year.”

“We’ve commented on how consistent each market performed during 2023 and that continues to be the case. While there is a large disparity between leaders such as San Diego versus laggards such as with Portland, the broad market performance is tightly bunched up.  This is also true of high and low tiers.  The average annual gains between high and low tiers across cities tracked by the indices is just 1.1%.  Low price tiered indices have outperformed high priced indices for 17 months.  Homeowners most likely saw healthy gains in the last year, no matter what city you were in, or if it was in an expensive or inexpensive neighborhood.  No matter which way you slice it, the index performance closely resembled the broad market.”

“On a monthly basis, home prices continue to struggle in the face of elevated borrowing costs.  Seventeen markets dropped over the last month, while Minneapolis has posted a 2.4% decline over the prior three months.  Only Southern California and Washington D.C. have stood up the rising wave of interest rates and deliver positive returns to start the year.  San Diego rose 1.8% in January, followed by DC with 0.5% and Los Angeles at 0.1%.”

SUPPORTING DATA

Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.

2006 Peak2012 TroughCurrent
IndexLevelDateLevelDateFrom Peak
(%)		LevelFrom Trough
(%)		From Peak
(%)
National184.61Jul-06134.00Feb-12-27.4 %310.46131.7 %68.2 %
20-City206.52Jul-06134.07Mar-12-35.1 %317.07136.5 %53.5 %
10-City226.29Jun-06146.45Mar-12-35.3 %332.78127.2 %47.1 %

Table 2 below summarizes the results for January 2024. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices could be revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.

January 2024January 24/December 23December/November1-Year
Metropolitan AreaLevelChange (%)Change (%)Change (%)
Atlanta240.61-0.1 %-0.1 %6.4 %
Boston318.55-0.5 %-0.7 %7.0 %
Charlotte270.49-0.1 %-0.1 %8.1 %
Chicago196.22-0.5 %-0.2 %8.0 %
Cleveland181.03-0.9 %-0.8 %6.9 %
Dallas289.85-0.2 %-0.7 %2.9 %
Denver308.82-0.5 %-0.5 %2.7 %
Detroit179.05-0.7 %-0.7 %8.2 %
Las Vegas284.74-0.1 %0.2 %5.6 %
Los Angeles421.790.1 %0.1 %8.6 %
Miami429.02-0.1 %0.3 %7.5 %
Minneapolis230.48-0.6 %-1.0 %3.1 %
New York293.24-0.3 %-0.1 %7.6 %
Phoenix321.34-0.5 %-0.6 %4.6 %
Portland315.24-0.2 %-1.0 %0.9 %
San Diego421.341.8 %-0.8 %11.2 %
San Francisco340.88-0.1 %-0.9 %4.5 %
Seattle362.040.0 %-0.5 %4.4 %
Tampa381.28-0.2 %-0.3 %4.6 %
Washington313.820.5 %0.0 %6.3 %
Composite-10332.780.0 %-0.2 %7.4 %
Composite-20317.07-0.1 %-0.3 %6.6 %
U.S. National310.46-0.1 %-0.4 %6.0 %
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic
Data through January 2024

Table 3 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data. Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.

January 24/December 23 Change (%)December/November  Change (%)
Metropolitan AreaNSASANSASA
Atlanta-0.1 %0.3 %-0.1 %0.5 %
Boston-0.5 %0.0 %-0.7 %0.1 %
Charlotte-0.1 %0.5 %-0.1 %0.6 %
Chicago-0.5 %0.2 %-0.2 %0.6 %
Cleveland-0.9 %-0.1 %-0.8 %0.0 %
Dallas-0.2 %0.3 %-0.7 %0.0 %
Denver-0.5 %-0.5 %-0.5 %0.0 %
Detroit-0.7 %-0.1 %-0.7 %0.1 %
Las Vegas-0.1 %0.4 %0.2 %0.8 %
Los Angeles0.1 %0.2 %0.1 %0.7 %
Miami-0.1 %0.0 %0.3 %0.7 %
Minneapolis-0.6 %0.1 %-1.0 %0.0 %
New York-0.3 %0.0 %-0.1 %0.0 %
Phoenix-0.5 %-0.4 %-0.6 %0.4 %
Portland-0.2 %-0.1 %-1.0 %-0.2 %
San Diego1.8 %1.4 %-0.8 %-0.1 %
San Francisco-0.1 %0.3 %-0.9 %-0.2 %
Seattle0.0 %-0.1 %-0.5 %0.3 %
Tampa-0.2 %0.4 %-0.3 %0.3 %
Washington0.5 %0.9 %0.0 %0.2 %
Composite-100.0 %0.2 %-0.2 %0.3 %
Composite-20-0.1 %0.1 %-0.3 %0.3 %
U.S. National-0.1 %0.4 %-0.4 %0.2 %
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic
Data through January  2024

For more information about S&P Dow Jones Indices, please visit www.spglobal.com/spdji.

ABOUT S&P DOW JONES INDICES

S&P Dow Jones Indices is the largest global resource for essential index-based concepts, data and research, and home to iconic financial market indicators, such as the S&P 500® and the Dow Jones Industrial Average®. More assets are invested in products based on our indices than products based on indices from any other provider in the world. Since Charles Dow invented the first index in 1884, S&P DJI has been innovating and developing indices across the spectrum of asset classes helping to define the way investors measure and trade the markets.

S&P Dow Jones Indices is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI), which provides essential intelligence for individuals, companies, and governments to make decisions with confidence. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/spdji.

FOR MORE INFORMATION:

April Kabahar
Global Head of Communications
New York, USA
(+1) 212 438 7530
april.kabahar@spglobal.com

S&P Dow Jones Indices’ interactive blog, IndexologyBlog.com, delivers real-time commentary and analysis from industry experts across S&P Global on a wide range of topics impacting residential home prices, homebuilding and mortgage financing in the United States. Readers and viewers can visit the blog at www.indexologyblog.com, where feedback and commentary are welcomed and encouraged.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are published on the last Tuesday of each month at 9:00 am ET. They are constructed to accurately track the price path of typical single-family homes located in each metropolitan area provided. Each index combines matched price pairs for thousands of individual houses from the available universe of arms-length sales data. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index tracks the value of single-family housing within the United States. The index is a composite of single-family home price indices for the nine U.S. Census divisions and is calculated quarterly. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 10 original metro area indices. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 20 metro area indices. The indices have a base value of 100 in January 2000; thus, for example, a current index value of 150 translates to a 50% appreciation rate since January 2000 for a typical home located within the subject market.

These indices are generated and published under agreements between S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic, Inc.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are produced by CoreLogic, Inc. In addition to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, CoreLogic also offers home price index sets covering thousands of zip codes, counties, metro areas, and state markets. The indices, published by S&P Dow Jones Indices, represent just a small subset of the broader data available through CoreLogic.

Case-Shiller® and CoreLogic® are trademarks of CoreLogic Case-Shiller, LLC or its affiliates or subsidiaries (“CoreLogic”) and have been licensed for use by S&P Dow Jones Indices. None of the financial products based on indices produced by CoreLogic or its predecessors in interest are sponsored, sold, or promoted by CoreLogic, and neither CoreLogic nor any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, or predecessors in interest makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such products.

SOURCE S&P Dow Jones Indices

Job Growth Continues to Drive Annual Home Price Gains in December, CoreLogic Reports

Posted on by
Reply
  • Annual U.S. home price growth was 5.5% in December 2023, the highest rate of appreciation recorded since January 2023.
  • Year-over-year U.S. home prices have recorded annual gains since early 2012.
  • In 2023, the average CoreLogic Home Price Index gain was 3.9%, down from 14.5% in 2022 but the same as the annual average in 2019.
  • Northeastern states continued to lead the U.S. for annual price gains, with Rhode Island on top at 13.3%.
  • Among large metro areas, Miami returned to the No 1. spot for year-over-year home price increases in December, posting a gain of almost 11%.

Irvine, CA – February 06, 2024 (BUSINESS WIRE) CoreLogic®, a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for December 2023.

U.S. annual single-family home price growth continued its gradual upward momentum in December 2023 to 5.5%. Northeastern states still saw the largest gains, although no states or districts posted year-over-year losses, the first time that the latter trend has been observed since late 2022. As noted in CoreLogic’s most recent Loan Performance Index report, a healthy job market continues to drive mortgage performance and housing demand. In January 2024, the country added 353,000 new jobs, according to current U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data. These economic and housing market dynamics are happening while the inventory of homes for sale remains slim.

“Last winter’s mortgage rate surge impacted seasonal home price changes in many markets and suggests that annual gains may have reached the cycle peak and will level off in the coming months,” said Dr. Selma Hepp, chief economist for CoreLogic. “But while appreciation is projected to slow, home prices will continue to extend to new highs entering the typically busy spring homebuying season. Also, while the recent dip in mortgage rates help improve some affordability challenges, additional rate declines may not arrive until the second half of 2024.”

“The 2024 homebuying season should enjoy a boost because of pent-up demand, as well as a robust job market and wage growth,” Hepp continued. “Geographic patterns in price gains continued to favor housing markets in the Northeast and the South, especially those that remain more affordable and have lagged in home price increases over the past couple of years.”

Top Takeaways:

  • U.S. single-family home prices (including distressed sales) increased by 5.5% year over year in December 2023 compared with December 2022. On a month-over-month basis, home prices declined by – 0.1% compared with November 2023.
  • In December, the annual appreciation of detached properties (5.7%) was 1.1 percentage point higher than that of attached properties (4.6%).
  • CoreLogic’s forecast shows annual U.S. home price gains slowing to 2.8% in December 2024.
  • Miami posted the highest year-over-year home price increase of the country’s 20 tracked metro areas in December, at 10.7%. Detroit saw the next-highest gain (9.3%), followed by San Diego (8.1%).
  • Among states, Rhode Island ranked first for annual appreciation in December (up by 13.3%), followed by New Jersey (up by 11.3%) and Connecticut (up by 10.5%). No states recorded year-over-year home price losses.

The next CoreLogic HPI press release, featuring January 2024 data, is scheduled to be issued on March 5, 2024, at 8 a.m. EST.

Methodology

The CoreLogic HPI™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 45 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the Single-Family Combined tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.

CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers — Single-Family Combined (both attached and detached) and Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales. As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index.

About Market Risk Indicators

Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics solution that provide monthly updates on the overall health of housing markets across the country. CoreLogic data scientists combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price reduction.

About the Market Condition Indicators

As part of the CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecasts offerings, Market Condition Indicators are available for all metropolitan areas and identify individual markets as overvalued, at value or undervalued. These indicators are derived from the long-term fundamental values, which are a function of real disposable income per capita. Markets are labeled as overvalued if the current home price indexes exceed their long-term values by greater than 10% and undervalued where the long-term values exceed the index levels by greater than 10%.

Source: CoreLogic

The data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient’s publication or broadcast. This data may not be resold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient’s parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact Robin Wachner at newsmedia@corelogic.com. For sales inquiries, visit https://www.corelogic.com/support/sales-contact/. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. The data are compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.

About CoreLogic

CoreLogic is a leading provider of property insights and innovative solutions, working to transform the property industry by putting people first. Using its network, scale, connectivity and technology, CoreLogic delivers faster, smarter, more human-centered experiences that build better relationships, strengthen businesses and ultimately create a more resilient society. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.

CORELOGIC, the CoreLogic logo, CoreLogic HPI and CoreLogic HPI Forecast are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

Contacts

Media Contact:
Robin Wachner
newsmedia@corelogic.com

Sales Contact:
https://www.corelogic.com/support/sales-contact/