Tag Archives: home price

Annual Home Price Growth Slows to Two-Year Low in November, CoreLogic Reports

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  • Year-over-year home price appreciation was up for the 130th consecutive month in November, but growth fell to single digits at 8.6%
  • CoreLogic expects annual price changes to move into negative territory by the spring of 2023 before rebounding to about 2% to 3% growth in the fall

Irvine, CA – January 03, 2023 (BUSINESS WIRE) CoreLogic®, a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for November 2022.

Year-over-year home price growth ended its 21-month streak of double-digit momentum in November, posting an 8.6% gain, the lowest rate of appreciation in exactly two years. Although 16 states bucked the national trend and saw annual double-digit increases, appreciation is decelerating in many popular housing markets across the country. Southeastern states still led the country for price growth in November but also saw some of the most pronounced cooling. Similarly, relatively more expensive Western areas also posted substantial combined declines in recent months since spring’s peak.

Nationwide, the recent price deceleration pushed November home values 2.5% below the spring 2022 peak. In 2023, home values will likely move even further from that high point, as CoreLogic expects price growth to begin recording negative year-over-year readings in the second quarter.

“Although home price growth has been slowing rapidly and will continue to do so in 2023, strong gains in the first half of last year suggest that total 2022 appreciation was only slightly lower than that recorded in 2021,” said Selma Hepp, executive, deputy chief economist at CoreLogic. “However, 2023 will present its own challenges, as consumers remain wary of both the housing market and the overall economic outlook.”

Figure 1: HPI & HPI Forecast Percentage Change YOY (Graphic: Business Wire)

Figure 1: HPI & HPI Forecast Percentage Change YOY (Graphic: Business Wire)

“And while the recent decline in mortgage rates may bode well for the housing market,” Hepp continued, “potential homebuyers are grappling with the idea of buying amid possible further price declines and a continued inventory shortage. Nevertheless, with slowly improving affordability and a more optimistic economic outlook than previously believed, the housing market could show resilience in 2023.”

Table 1: Single Family Combined HPI Percentage Change & Market Condition Indicators for Select Metros (Graphic: Business Wire)

Top Takeaways:

  • U.S. home prices (including distressed sales) increased 8.6% year over year in November 2022 compared to November 2021. On a month-over-month basis, home prices declined by 0.2% compared to October 2022.
  • In November, annual appreciation of attached properties (8.8%) was 0.3 percentage points higher than that of detached properties (8.5%).
  • Annual U.S. home price gains are forecast to slow to 2.8% by November 2023.
  • Miami posted the highest year-over-year home price increase of the country’s 20 largest metro areas in November, at 21.3%, while Tampa, Florida retained the No. 2 spot at 17.3%.
  • Florida and South Carolina recorded the highest annual home price gains, 18% and 13.9%, respectively. Georgia posted the third-highest growth, with a 13.6% year-over-year increase. Washington, D.C. ranked last for appreciation at 1.2%.
Table 2: Top Markets at Risk of Home Price Decline (Graphic: Business Wire)

The next CoreLogic HPI press release, featuring December 2022 data, will be issued on February 7, 2023, at 8 a.m. EST.

Methodology

The CoreLogic HPI™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 45 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the “Single-Family Combined” tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.

CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers — “Single-Family Combined” (both attached and detached) and “Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales.” As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index.

About Market Risk Indicators

Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics solution that provide monthly updates on the overall “health” of housing markets across the country. CoreLogic data scientists combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price reduction.

About the Market Condition Indicators

As part of the CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecasts offerings, Market Condition Indicators are available for all metropolitan areas and identify individual markets as “overvalued”, “at value”, or “undervalued.” These indicators are derived from the long-term fundamental values, which are a function of real disposable income per capita. Markets are labeled as overvalued if the current home price indexes exceed their long-term values by greater than 10% and undervalued where the long-term values exceed the index levels by greater than 10%.

Source: CoreLogic

The data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient’s publication or broadcast. This data may not be resold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient’s parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact Robin Wachner at newsmedia@corelogic.com. For sales inquiries, contact sales@corelogic.com. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. The data are compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.

About CoreLogic

CoreLogic is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider. The company’s combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 4.5 billion records spanning more than 50 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.

CORELOGIC, the CoreLogic logo, CoreLogic HPI and CoreLogic HPI Forecast are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

Contacts

Media Contact:
Robin Wachner
newsmedia@corelogic.com

Sales Contact:

Nation’s Longest Home Price Boom Ends with Prices Declining from Peaks in Almost All of the Nation’s 60 Largest Metros

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Washington, D.C. – Oct. 21, 2022 (PRNewswire) The Nation’s longest home price boom has ended after a run-up lasting 10½ years. Since prices peaked in June, we have had Month-on-Month declines of 0.5%, 0.4%, & 0.2% in September, August, & July respectively, according to data from the American Enterprise Institute’s Housing Center.

Out of the 60 largest metros, 51 have had a decline from their respective peak home price levels, and only 2 are still growing. San Jose, San Francisco, & Seattle had the biggest declines from their peaks at -10.7%, -8.5%, and -8.2% respectively (see #1 in graphic).  

(1) Map of Month-on-Month HPA displaying change from peak prices. (2) Map of Year-on-Year HPA. (3) Month's supply by price tier.
(1) Map of Month-on-Month HPA displaying change from peak prices. (2) Map of Year-on-Year HPA. (3) Month’s supply by price tier.

September’s Year-on-Year HPA was 10.3%, down from 11.6% a month ago, a YoY peak of 17.2% in March 2022 and 15.8% a year ago. Based on Optimal Blue rate lock data, YoY HPA is projected to decline to further 9.2% in October 2022 and 7.4% in November and YoY HPA is expected to slow to 4%-6% for December 2022.

YoY HPA varied significantly among the 60 largest metros. It ranged from 2.6% and 3.4% in San Francisco and San Jose to 21.2% and 20.6% in Cape Coral and North Port (see #2 in graphic).   

Historically, HPA in the low price tier outpaced HPA in the upper price tiers. This trend continues to hold true. Although home prices were down across all four price tiers, the high end and low end of the market were hit differently. In September, high price tier was down 3.7% from its peak in May 2022, while low price tier was down 0.5% from its peak in July.

September months’ supply & active listings both increased above seasonal trends, but remain at historically low levels. Months’ supply stood at 1.9 months in September 2022, down from 2.8 months in September 2019, but up from 1.7 months in August 2022, and 0.7 months in April 2022 (see #3 in graphic).

 Link to National Home Price Appreciation (HPA) Index – September 2022

Media Contact Details:

Arthur Gailes
American Enterprise Institute Housing Center
Washington, DC 
aei.org/california-housing-conference
Arthur.gailes@aei.org
804-662-0874

SOURCE AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH

U.S. Median Home Price Appreciation Decelerates In Q2 2018 To Slowest Pace In Two Years

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Median Home Prices Above Pre-Recession Levels in 65 Percent of Local Markets; Average Homeownership Tenure Increases to New Record High; Distressed Sales Share Drops to 11-Year Low

Irvine, CA – July 26, 2018 (PRNewswire) ATTOM Data Solutions, curator of the nation’s premier property database, today released its Q2 2018 U.S. Home Sales Report, which shows that U.S. single family homes and condos sold for a median price of $255,000 in the second quarter, up 6.3 percent from a year ago to a new all-time high but the slowest annual appreciation since Q2 2016.

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“Annual home price appreciation nationwide has now slowed for five consecutive quarters following a post-election spike to double-digit appreciation in the first quarter of 2017,” said Daren Blomquist, senior vice president at ATTOM Data Solutions. “Although home sellers are still in the driver’s seat of this housing market, moderating home price appreciation is good news for prospective homebuyers and signals that rising mortgage rates and other housing headwinds are cooling red-hot home price appreciation in some areas.”

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Annual home price appreciation slows in 66 percent of local markets

Annual home price appreciation in Q2 2018 decelerated from the previous quarter in 80 of the 122 metros (66 percent) analyzed for median home prices, including Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston and Philadelphia.

Counter to the national trend, annual home price appreciation accelerated from the previous quarter in 42 of the 122 metros analyzed (34 percent), including New York, Washington, D.C., Boston, San Francisco and Detroit.

Price-per-square foot appreciation accelerates for homes selling above $1 million

The median price per square foot for homes that sold for $1 million or more in the second quarter increased 5.4 percent from a year ago, accelerating from 3.2 percent annual appreciation in the previous quarter and from 3.4 percent annual appreciation in Q2 2017.

The median price per square foot for homes that sold for under $1 million in the first quarter increased 6.5 percent from a year ago, but that was down from 8.2 percent annual appreciation in the previous quarter and down from 9.0 percent annual appreciation in Q2 2017.

In 49 counties with at least 100 single family and condo sales above $1 million in Q2 2018, median price per square foot appreciation accelerated compared to a year ago in the above-$1 million category in 32 of those counties (65 percent), including Santa Clara County (San Jose), California; Orange County, California; King County (Seattle), Washington; Alameda County (San Francisco), California; and San Diego County, California.

Median price per square foot appreciation decelerated compared to a year ago in the above-$1 million category in 17 of the 49 counties (35 percent) with at least 100 single family home and condo sales above $1 million in Q2 2018, including Los Angeles County, California; Miami-Dade County, Florida; Marin County (San Francisco area), California; Maricopa County (Phoenix), Arizona; and New York County (Manhattan), New York.

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Fastest home price appreciation in San Jose, Flint, Seattle, Boise, San Francisco

Among 122 metropolitan statistical areas analyzed in the report, those with the biggest year-over-year increase in median prices were San Jose, California (up 25.0 percent); Flint, Michigan (up 23.7 percent); Seattle, Washington (up 14.3 percent); Boise, Idaho (up 14.3 percent); and San Francisco, California (up 14.2 percent).

“Home prices in the greater Seattle region continue to grow at well above long-term averages for several reasons,” said Matthew Gardner, chief economist with Windermere Real Estate, covering the Seattle market. “Firstly, the area’s booming economy continues to add jobs, driving up demand for housing. Compounding this demand is a lack of new construction housing, which puts substantial upward pressure on home prices in the resale market. Housing affordability is unquestionably a major issue in Seattle; however, ironically enough, the many California buyers relocating to the Seattle area actually think our home prices are a bargain!”

Q2 2018 Home Price Appreciation Heat Map

Median home prices above pre-recession levels in 65 percent of markets

The U.S. median home price of $255,000 in Q2 2018 was 6 percent above the pre-recession peak of $241,648 in Q3 2005.

Median home prices in 79 of the 122 metro areas analyzed for median home prices in the report (65 percent) were above their pre-recession peaks in Q2 2018, led by Houston, Texas (79 percent above); Dallas-Fort Worth (78 percent above); Greeley, Colorado (76 percent above); Denver, Colorado (75 percent above); and San Antonio, Texas (68 percent above).

Median home prices in Q2 2018 were still below pre-recession peaks in 43 of the 122 metros analyzed for median home prices (35 percent), led by Atlantic City, New Jersey (36 percent below); York, Pennsylvania (34 percent below); Salisbury, Maryland (21 percent below); Naples, Florida (19 percent below); and Trenton, New Jersey (18 percent below).

Average homeownership tenure increases to new all-time high of 8.09 years

Homeowners who sold in Q2 2018 had owned their homes for an average of 8.09 years, up from an average homeownership tenure of 7.91 years in Q1 2018 and up from an average homeownership tenure of 7.83 years in Q2 2017.

Counter to the national trend, average homeownership tenure declined in 22 of 108 (20 percent) metropolitan statistical areas analyzed for homeownership tenure, including Sacramento, California; Nashville, Tennessee; Salt Lake City, Utah; Honolulu, Hawaii; and New Haven, Connecticut.

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Average home seller gains increase to highest level since Q3 2007

Homeowners who sold in Q2 2018 sold for an average of $58,000 more than their original purchase price, the highest average home seller price gain since Q3 2007.

The $58,000 average home seller price gain in Q2 2018 represented an average 30.2 percent return on the original purchase price, up from an average 28.9 percent return in the first quarter but down from a recent peak of 30.8 percent in Q4 2017.

Among 147 metropolitan statistical areas analyzed for average home seller gains, those with the highest average percentage gain were San Jose, California (116.6 percent); San Francisco, California (85.0 percent); Seattle, Washington (76.5 percent); Boston, Massachusetts (64.3 percent); and Portland, Oregon (62.1 percent).

Distressed sales drop to an 11-year low

Distressed sales — sales of bank-owned homes, short sales, and sales to third-party investors at foreclosure auction — accounted for 11.9 percent of all single family home and condo sales in Q2 2018, down from 14.9 percent in the previous quarter and down from 13.5 percent in Q2 2017 to the lowest level since Q2 2007, an 11-year low.

States with the highest share of distressed sales in Q2 2018 were New Jersey (23.9 percent), Delaware (22.5 percent), Rhode Island (18.6 percent), Connecticut (17.6 percent), and Illinois (17.3 percent).

Among 148 metropolitan statistical areas analyzed for distressed sales, those with the highest share in Q2 2018 were Atlantic City, New Jersey (42.1 percent); Trenton, New Jersey (26.0 percent); Youngstown, Ohio (25.4 percent); Syracuse, New York (24.8 percent); and Hagerstown, Maryland (22.1 percent).

Among 52 metro areas with a population of 1 million or more, those with the highest share of distressed sales in Q2 2018 were Baltimore, Maryland (20.7 percent); Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (20.2 percent); New York-Newark-Jersey City (20.0 percent); Cleveland, Ohio (19.0 percent); and Providence, Rhode Island (18.7 percent).

Other report findings

  • Sales to buyers using FHA loans — typically first-time homebuyers — accounted for 10.7 percent of all sales of single family homes and condos in Q2 2018, down from 11.9 percent in the previous quarter and down from 14.0 percent in Q2 2017 to the lowest level since Q1 2008 — a more than 10-year low.
  • All-cash purchases accounted for 27.2 percent of all single family home and condo sales in Q2 2018, down from 28.8 percent in the previous quarter and down from 27.6 percent in Q2 2017 to the lowest level since Q3 2016.
  • Sales to institutional investors (entities buying at least 10 properties in a calendar year) accounted for 2.0 percent of all single family home and condo sales in Q2 2018, up from 1.9 percent in the previous quarter but still down from 2.3 percent in Q2 2017.

Report methodology

The ATTOM Data Solutions U.S. Home Sales Report provides percentages of distressed sales and all sales that are sold to investors, institutional investors and cash buyers, at the state and metropolitan statistical area. Data is also available at the county and zip code level upon request. The data is derived from recorded sales deeds, foreclosure filings and loan data. Statistics for previous quarters are revised when each new report is issued as more deed data becomes available for those previous months. Median sales prices are calculated based on the sales price on the publicly recorded sales deed when available. If no sales price is recorded then the purchase loan amount is used to calculate median price, and if no purchase loan amount is available, the property’s Automated Valuation Model (AVM) at time of sale is used to calculate the median price.

Definitions

All-cash purchases: sales where no loan is recorded at the time of sale and where ATTOM has coverage of loan data.

Institutional investor purchases: residential property sales to non-lending entities that purchased at least 10 properties in a calendar year.

REO sale: a sale of a property that occurs while the property is actively bank owned (REO).

Third-party foreclosure auction sale: a sale of a property that occurs at the public foreclosure auction (trustee’s sale or sheriff’s sale) in which the property is sold to a third-party buyer and does not transfer back to the foreclosing bank.

Short sale: a sale of a property where the sale price is less than (short) the combined amount of loans secured by the property.

About ATTOM Data Solutions

ATTOM Data Solutions provides premium property data to power products that improve transparency, innovation, efficiency and disruption in a data-driven economy. ATTOM multi-sources property tax, deed, mortgage, foreclosure, environmental risk, natural hazard, and neighborhood data for more than 155 million U.S. residential and commercial properties covering 99 percent of the nation’s population. A rigorous data management process involving more than 20 steps validates, standardizes and enhances the data collected by ATTOM, assigning each property record with a persistent, unique ID — the ATTOM ID. The 9TB ATTOM Data Warehouse fuels innovation in many industries including mortgage, real estate, insurance, marketing, government and more through flexible data delivery solutions that include bulk file licenses, APIs, market trends, marketing lists, match & append and more.

Media Contact:

Christine Stricker
(949) 748-8428
christine.stricker@attomdata.com

Data and Report Licensing:
(949) 502-8313
datareports@attomdata.com