Redfin: Home Prices and Buyer Competition Hit New Highs in June as Inventory Drought Dragged into 21st Consecutive Month

New records set: 26.6 percent of homes sold in June went for more than their asking price and the typical home found a buyer in 36 days

In Denver, Seattle and Portland, the typical home sold in June was off the market in a week

Seattle, WA – July 13, 2017 (BUSINESS WIRE) U.S. home prices rose 7.3 percent to a median sale price of $298,000 in June, according to Redfin (www.redfin.com), the next-generation real estate brokerage. This is the highest national median sale price Redfin has recorded since the company began keeping track in 2010.

Redfin Logo

Home sales increased 1.9 percent compared to last year, constrained by a long-standing inventory shortage. The number of homes for sale fell 10.7 percent, leaving just 2.5 months of supply—the lowest supply on record since 2010—and well below the six months that represents a market balanced between buyers and sellers.

Every record in market speed and competition that was set in May was broken again in June. The typical home that sold in June went under contract in 36 days, one day faster than in May, setting a new record-fast pace for home sales. Denver, Portland and Seattle were the fastest-moving markets, with the typical home in each market finding a buyer in just seven days. More than a quarter (26.6%) of homes sold above their list price, the highest percentage Redfin has recorded. The average sale-to-list price ratio hit a record high of 95.5 percent in June.

“This market is unlike any we’ve ever seen before,” said Redfin chief economist Nela Richardson. “Month after month, new records are set for the pace at which homes are going under contract. Demand continues to swell while supply troughs. For buyers competing in this market, it’s survival of the fittest. The strongest offers that are most likely to close quickly and smoothly rise to the top of the pile.”

Regional June Highlights

Competition

  • Denver, CO, Portland, OR and Seattle, WA tied for fastest market at 7 median days on market, followed by Grand Rapids, MI (8) and Boston, MA (9).
  • The most competitive market in June was San Jose, CA where 73.7% of homes sold above list price, followed by 70.6% in San Francisco, CA, 69.8% in Oakland, CA, 62.3% in Seattle, WA, and 52.6% in Tacoma, WA.

Prices

  • Fort Lauderdale, FL had the nation’s highest price growth, rising 15.6% since last year to $260,000, followed by Nashville, TN (14%), Seattle, WA (13.5%), Tacoma, WA (12.2%), and Deltona, FL (12.1%).
  • Two metros saw price declines in June: Greensboro, NC (-1.2%), and Tulsa, OK (-0.3%).

Sales

  • Ten out of 89 metros saw sales surge by double digits from last year. Poughkeepsie, NY led the nation in year-over-year sales growth, up 42.6%, followed by Camden, NJ, up 23.1%. Lakeland, FL rounded out the top three with sales up 16.3% from a year ago.
  • Buffalo, NY saw the largest decline in sales since last year, falling 26.9%. Home sales in Rochester, NY and Fort Lauderdale, FL declined by 21.2% and 15.5%, respectively.

Inventory

  • San Jose, CA had the largest decrease in overall inventory, falling 42.2% since last June. Rochester, NY (-29.7%), San Francisco, CA (-26.6%), and Tampa, FL (-26.5%) also saw far fewer homes available on the market than a year ago.
  • Three metros in Utah saw the highest increases in the number of homes for sale. Ogden, UT had the highest increase in inventory, up 40.5% year over year, followed by Provo, UT (36.7%) and Salt Lake City, UT (30.1%).

To read the full report, complete with data and charts, click here.

About Redfin

Redfin (www.redfin.com) is the next-generation real estate brokerage, combining its own full-service agents with modern technology to redefine real estate in the consumer’s favor. Founded by software engineers, Redfin has the country’s #1 brokerage website and offers a host of online tools to consumers, including the Redfin Estimate, the automated home-value estimate with the industry’s lowest published error rate for listed homes. Homebuyers and sellers enjoy a full-service, technology-powered experience from Redfin real estate agents, while saving thousands in commissions. Redfin serves more than 80 major metro areas across the U.S. The company has closed more than $40 billion in home sales.

Contacts

Redfin Journalist Services:
Alina Ptaszynski, 206-588-6863
press@redfin.com

CoreLogic US Home Price Report Shows Prices Up 6.9 Percent in April 2017

  • Multiple Offers Drive Prices Upward in Select Markets
  • Mortgage Rates Fluctuate During Spring Buying Season
  • Home Price Gains Strongest in the West

Irvine, CA – June 6th, 2017 (BUSINESS WIRE) CoreLogic® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released its CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for April 2017 which shows home prices are up both year over year and month over month.

CoreLogic Logo

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 6.9 percent in April 2017 compared with April 2016 and increased month over month by 1.6 percent in April 2017 compared with March 2017,* according to the CoreLogic HPI.

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase by 5.1 percent on a year-over-year basis from April 2017 to April 2018, and on a month-over-month basis home prices are expected to increase by 0.7 percent from April 2017 to May 2017. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

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“Mortgage rates in April dipped back to their lowest level since November of last year, spurring home-buying activity,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “In some metro areas, there has been a bidding frenzy as multiple contracts are placed on a single home. This has led home-price growth to outpace rent gains. Nationally, home prices were up 6.9 percent over the last year, while rent growth for single-family rental homes recorded a 3 percent rise through April, according to the CoreLogic Single-Family Rental Index.”

“Interest rates on fixed-rate mortgages are down by one-fourth of a percentage point since mid-March, just in time to support the spring home-buying season,” said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “Some metro areas have low for-sale inventory, short time-on-market trends and homes that sell above the list price. Geographically, gains were strongest in the West with Washington and Utah posting double-digit gains.”

* March 2017 data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results.

Methodology

The CoreLogic HPI™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the “Single-Family Combined” tier representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indexes are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.

CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers—“Single-Family Combined” (both attached and detached) and “Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales.” As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, CBSA and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95-percent statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2.0 percent margin of error for the index.

Source: CoreLogic

The data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient’s publication or broadcast. This data may not be resold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient’s parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact Lori Guyton at lguyton@cvic.com or Bill Campbell at bill@campbelllewis.com. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. The data are compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.

About CoreLogic

CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX) is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider. The company’s combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 4.5 billion records spanning more than 50 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.

CORELOGIC, the CoreLogic logo, CoreLogic HPI, CoreLogic HPI Forecast and HPI are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries.

Contacts

CoreLogic

For real estate industry and trade media:

Bill Campbell
(212) 995-8057
bill@campbelllewis.com

or

For general news media:

Lori Guyton
(901) 277-6066
lguyton@cvic.com

Median Prices Continue to Rise in Florida’s Housing Market in April 2017

Orlando, FL – May 24, 2017 (PRNewswire) Rising median prices and constrained inventory remained a prevailing trend in Florida’s housing market in April, according to the latest housing data released by Florida Realtors®. The trend resulted in a loss of momentum for home sales: Sales of single-family homes statewide totaled 23,829 last month, easing slightly (-1.2 percent) when compared to April 2016.

Florida Realtors Logo

“Low inventory means fewer homes on the market and increased competition for those homes,” said 2017 Florida Realtors President Maria Wells, broker-owner with Lifestyle Realty Group in Stuart. “It puts consumers in a position where they have to be prepared and ready to buy, as many Realtors around the state report seeing more instances of multiple offers. And, without more for-sale homes, median prices will continue to rise due to demand. In April, sellers of existing single-family homes received 96.2 percent (median percentage) of their original listing price, while those selling townhouse-condo properties received 94.7 percent – an indication that the listed price is extremely close to market value.

“Working with a local Realtor enables consumers to have the advice of an expert in their local housing market – someone who can guide them through their home search and help them find the right home that fits their budget and their lifestyle.”

The statewide median sales price for single-family existing homes last month was $234,900, up 10.3 percent from the previous year, according to data from Florida Realtors research department in partnership with local Realtor boards/associations. The statewide median price for townhouse-condo properties in April was $172,000, up 7.2 percent over the year-ago figure. April was the 65th month in a row that statewide median prices for both sectors rose year-over-year. The median is the midpoint; half the homes sold for more, half for less.

According to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR), the national median sales price for existing single-family homes in March 2017 was $237,800, up 6.6 percent from the previous year; the national median existing condo price was $224,700. In California, the statewide median sales price for single-family existing homes in March was $517,020; in Massachusetts, it was $350,000; in Maryland, it was $269,204; and in New York, it was $249,000.

Looking at Florida’s townhouse-condo market, statewide closed sales totaled 10,292 last month, down 4 percent compared to April 2016. Closed sales data reflected fewer short sales and cash-only sales last month: Short sales for townhouse-condo properties declined 38.5 percent while short sales for single-family homes also dropped 33.8 percent. Closed sales may occur from 30- to 90-plus days after sales contracts are written.

“Closed sales of single-family homes were down in 14 of Florida’s 22 metro areas compared to last April, and fell by 1.2 percent statewide – but there is no indication that demand is falling off,” said Florida Realtors® Chief Economist Dr. Brad O’Connor. “Rather, all signs continue to point to a market being held back by a shortage of homes for sale. As of the end of April, the statewide inventory of single-family homes for sale was down by nearly 5 percent compared to where it was a year ago.

“Additionally, single-family homes that did sell in April were snapped up as quickly as in any month in recent years. According to Florida Realtors median-time-to-sale metric, half of the single-family homes selling in April of last year went from listing to close in 90 days or less, but this April, that figure fell to 85 days or less – a 5.6 percent decline.”

He noted that the townhouse-condo market has been relatively more balanced than the single-family market from a statewide perspective for several months, but local markets experience more variance in townhouse-condo inventory levels.

April’s inventory remained constricted with a 4-months’ supply for single-family homes and a 6.1-months’ supply for townhouse-condo properties, according to Florida Realtors.

According to Freddie Mac, the interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.05 percent in April 2017, up significantly from the 3.61 percent average recorded during the same month a year earlier.

To see the full statewide housing activity reports, go to Florida Realtors Media Center at http://media.floridarealtors.org/ and look under Latest Releases, or download the April 2017 data report PDFs under Market Data at: http://media.floridarealtors.org/market-data

Florida Realtors® serves as the voice for real estate in Florida. It provides programs, services, continuing education, research and legislative representation to its more than 165,000 members in 55 boards/associations. Florida Realtors® Media Center website is available at media.floridarealtors.org.

Metro Home-Price Growth Heats Up 6.9 Percent in First Quarter

Washington, D.C. – May 15, 2017 (nar.realtor) The strongest quarterly sales pace in exactly a decade put significant downward pressure on inventory levels and caused price growth to further accelerate during the first three months of 2017, according to the latest quarterly report by the National Association of Realtors®. Metro home prices have now accelerated for three consecutive quarters.

NAR logo

The national median existing single-family home price in the first quarter was $232,100, which is up 6.9 percent from the first quarter of 2016 ($217,200) and the fastest growth since the second quarter of 2015 (8.2 percent). The median price during the fourth quarter of 2016 increased 5.9 percent from the fourth quarter of 2015.

Single-family home prices last quarter increased in 85 percent of measured markets, with 152 out of 178 metropolitan statistical areas(1) (MSAs) showing sales price gains in the first quarter compared with the first quarter of 2016. Twenty-five areas (14 percent) recorded lower median prices from a year earlier.

Lawrence Yun

Lawrence Yun

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says continual supply shortages ignited faster price appreciation across the country in the first quarter. “Prospective buyers poured into the market to start the year, and while their increased presence led to a boost in sales, new listings failed to keep up and hovered around record lows all quarter,” he said. “Those able to successfully buy most likely had to outbid others – especially for those in the starter-home market – which in turn quickened price growth to the fastest quarterly pace in almost two years.”

Added Yun, “Several metro areas with the healthiest job gains in recent years continue to see a large upswing in buyer demand but lack the commensurate ramp up in new home construction. This is why many of these areas – in particular several parts of the South and West – are seeing unhealthy price appreciation that far exceeds incomes.”

Thirty metro areas in the first quarter (17 percent) experienced double-digit increases (unchanged from the fourth quarter of 2016). Overall, there were slightly fewer rising markets in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter of 2016, when price gains were recorded in 89 percent of metro areas.

Total existing-home sales(3), including single family and condos, climbed 1.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.62 million in the first quarter (highest since first quarter of 2007 at 5.66 million) from 5.55 million in the fourth quarter of 2016, and are 5.0 percent higher than the 5.36 million pace during the first quarter of 2016.

At the end of the first quarter, there were 1.83 million existing homes available for sale(2), which was 6.6 percent below the 1.96 million homes for sale at the end of the first quarter in 2016. The average supply during the first quarter was 3.7 months – down from 4.2 months in the first quarter of last year.

Despite a rise in the national family median income ($71,201)(4), the combination of higher mortgage rates and home prices slightly weakened affordability compared to a year ago. To purchase a single-family home at the national median price, a buyer making a 5 percent down payment would need an income of $52,251, a 10 percent down payment would require an income of $49,501, and $44,001 would be needed for a 20 percent down payment.

“Last quarter’s robust pace of sales was especially impressive considering the affordability sting buyers experienced from higher prices and mortgage rates,” said Yun. “High demand is poised to continue heading into the summer as long as job gains continue. However, many metro areas need to see a significant rise in new and existing inventory to meet this demand and cool down price growth.”

The five most expensive housing markets in the first quarter were the San Jose, California, metro area, where the median existing single-family price was $1,070,000; San Francisco, $815,000; Anaheim-Santa Ana, California, $750,000; urban Honolulu, $746,000; and San Diego, $564,000.

The five lowest-cost metro areas in the first quarter were Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, Ohio, $79,200; Cumberland, Maryland, $81,800; Decatur, Illinois, $86,100; Elmira, New York, $90,000; and Binghamton, New York, $91,200.

Metro area condominium and cooperative prices – covering changes in 61 metro areas – showed the national median existing-condo price was $218,600 in the first quarter, up 7.1 percent from the first quarter of 2016 ($204,200). Eighty-five percent of metro areas showed gains in their median condo price from a year ago.

Regional Breakdown
Total existing-home sales in the Northeast declined 2.2 percent in the first quarter but are 4.2 percent above the first quarter of 2016. The median existing single-family home price in the Northeast was $255,000 in the first quarter, up 2.2 percent from a year ago.

In the Midwest, existing-home sales dipped 4.3 percent in the first quarter but are 1.6 percent above a year ago. The median existing single-family home price in the Midwest increased 5.7 percent to $176,600 in the first quarter from the same quarter a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the South jumped 5.8 percent in the first quarter and are 5.8 percent higher than the first quarter of 2016. The median existing single-family home price in the South was $209,000 in the first quarter, 8.8 percent above a year earlier.

In the West, existing-home sales rose 1.6 percent in the first quarter and are 7.4 percent above a year ago. The median existing single-family home price in the West increased 8.4 percent to $342,500 in the first quarter from the first quarter of 2016.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing over 1.2 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

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NOTE: NAR releases quarterly median single-family price data for approximately 175 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). In some cases the MSA prices may not coincide with data released by state and local Realtor® associations. Any discrepancy may be due to differences in geographic coverage, product mix, and timing. In the event of discrepancies, Realtors® are advised that for business purposes, local data from their association may be more relevant.

Data tables for MSA home prices (single family and condo) are posted at http://www.realtor.org/topics/metropolitan-median-area-prices-and-affordability/data. If insufficient data is reported for a MSA in particular quarter, it is listed as N/A. For areas not covered in the tables, please contact the local association of Realtors®.

1. Areas are generally metropolitan statistical areas as defined by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget. NAR adheres to the OMB definitions, although in some areas an exact match is not possible from the available data. A list of counties included in MSA definitions is available at: http://www.census.gov/population/estimates/metro-city/List4.txt (link is external).

Regional median home prices are from a separate sampling that includes rural areas and portions of some smaller metros that are not included in this report; the regional percentage changes do not necessarily parallel changes in the larger metro areas. The only valid comparisons for median prices are with the same period a year earlier due to seasonality in buying patterns. Quarter-to-quarter comparisons do not compensate for seasonal changes, especially for the timing of family buying patterns.

Median price measurement reflects the types of homes that are selling during the quarter and can be skewed at times by changes in the sales mix. For example, changes in the level of distressed sales, which are heavily discounted, can vary notably in given markets and may affect percentage comparisons. Annual price measures generally smooth out any quarterly swings.

NAR began tracking of metropolitan area median single-family home prices in 1979; the metro area condo price series dates back to 1989.

Because there is a concentration of condos in high-cost metro areas, the national median condo price often is higher than the median single-family price. In a given market area, condos typically cost less than single-family homes. As the reporting sample expands in the future, additional areas will be included in the condo price report.

2. Total inventory and month’s supply data are available back through 1999, while single-family inventory and month’s supply are available back to 1982 (prior to 1999, single-family sales accounted for more than 90 percent of transactions and condos were measured only on a quarterly basis).

3. The seasonally adjusted annual rate for a particular quarter represents what the total number of actual sales for a year would be if the relative sales pace for that quarter was maintained for four consecutive quarters. Total home sales include single family, townhomes, condominiums and co-operative housing.

Seasonally adjusted rates are used in reporting quarterly data to factor out seasonal variations in resale activity. For example, sales volume normally is higher in the summer and relatively light in winter, primarily because of differences in the weather and household buying patterns.

4. Income figures are rounded to the nearest hundred, based on NAR modeling of Census data. Qualifying income requirements are determined using several scenarios on downpayment percentages and assume 25 percent of gross income devoted to mortgage principal and interest at a mortgage interest rate of 4.0%.

NOTE: Existing-Home Sales for April will be released May 24, and the Pending Home Sales Index for April will be released May 31; release times are 10:00 a.m. ET.

Media Contact:

Adam DeSanctis
(202) 383-1178
Email

CoreLogic US Home Price Report Shows Prices Up 7.1 Percent in March 2017

  • National Forecast Indicates Home Prices Will Increase 4.9 Percent by March 2018
  • Home Prices Projected to Increase 0.6 Percent between March and April 2017
  • Home Prices Increased 1.6 Percent between February and March 2017

Irvine, CA – May 2nd, 2017 (BUSINESS WIRE) CoreLogic® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released its CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for March 2017, which shows home prices are up both year over year and month over month.

CoreLogic Logo

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 7.1 percent in March 2017 compared with March 2016 and increased month over month by 1.6 percent in March 2017 compared with February 2017,* according to the CoreLogic HPI.

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase by 4.9 percent on a year-over-year basis from March 2017 to March 2018, and on a month-over-month basis home prices are expected to increase by 0.6 percent from March 2017 to April 2017. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

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“Home prices posted strong gains in March 2017, and the CoreLogic Home Price Index is only 2.8 percent from its 2006 peak,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “With a forecasted increase of almost 5 percent over the next 12 months, the index is expected to reach the previous peak during the second half of this year. Prices in more than half the country have already surpassed their previous peaks, and almost 20 percent of metropolitan areas are now at their price peaks. Nationally, price growth has gradually accelerated over the past half-year, while rent growth for single-family rental homes has slowly decelerated over the same period, according to the CoreLogic Single-Family Rental Index, recording a 3 percent rise over the year through March.”

“A potent mix of strong job gains, household formation, population growth and still-attractive mortgage rates in the face of tight inventories are fueling a continuing surge in home prices across the U.S.,” said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “Price gains were broad-based with 90 percent of metropolitan areas posting year-over-year gains. Major metropolitan areas were especially hot with CoreLogic data indicating that four of the largest 10 markets are now overvalued. Geographically, gains were strongest in the West with Washington showing the highest appreciation at almost 13 percent, and Seattle, Tacoma and Bellingham posting gains of 13 to 14 percent.”

* February data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results.

Methodology

The CoreLogic HPI™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the Single-Family Combined tier representing the most comprehensive set of properties (including all sales for Single-Family Attached and Single-Family Detached properties). The indexes are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.

CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a thirty-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers—Single-Family Combined (both Attached and Detached) and Single-Family Combined excluding distressed sales. As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, CBSA and ZIP Code-levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95-percent statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2.0 percent margin of error for the index.

Source: CoreLogic

The data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient’s publication or broadcast. This data may not be resold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient’s parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact Lori Guyton at lguyton@cvic.com or Bill Campbell at bill@campbelllewis.com. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. The data are compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.

About CoreLogic

CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX) is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider. The company’s combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 4.5 billion records spanning more than 50 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.

CORELOGIC, the CoreLogic logo, CoreLogic HPI, CoreLogic HPI Forecast and HPI are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries.

Contacts

CoreLogic
For real estate industry and trade media:
Bill Campbell, 212-995-8057
bill@campbelllewis.com

or

For general news media:
Lori Guyton, 901-277-6066
lguyton@cvic.com

Real House Prices Surge in Under-Supplied Markets, According to First American Real House Price Index

Combined with unfaltering demand, the lack of supply continues to pressure unadjusted prices higher in one of the strongest spring sellers’ markets seen in recent memory, says Chief Economist Mark Fleming

Santa Ana, CA – April 24th, 2017 (BUSINESS WIRE) First American Financial Corporation (NYSE: FAF), a leading global provider of title insurance, settlement services and risk solutions for real estate transactions, today released the February 2017 First American Real House Price Index (RHPI). The RHPI measures the price changes of single-family properties throughout the U.S. adjusted for the impact of income and interest rate changes on consumer house-buying power over time and across the United States at national, state and metropolitan area levels. Because the RHPI adjusts for house-buying power, it also serves as a measure of housing affordability.

First American Logo

February 2017 Real House Price Index

  • Real house prices increased 0.7 percent between January and February.
  • Real house prices increased by 11.0 percent year-over-year
  • Consumer house-buying power, how much one can buy based on changes in income and the interest rate, decreased 0.2 percent between January and February, and fell 4.7 percent year-over-year.
  • Real house prices are 32.8 percent below their housing-boom peak in July 2006 and 9.7 percent below the level of prices in January 2000.
  • Unadjusted house prices increased by 5.7 percent in February on a year-over-year basis and are 3.1 percent above the housing boom peak in 2007.

Chief Economist Analysis: Main Story in Most Markets is Lack of Supply

“Real, purchasing-power adjusted house prices increased 11 percent in February compared to a year ago. The lack of homes listed for sale is causing unadjusted house price growth to remain strong. Additionally, increasing interest rates are reducing consumer purchasing power. The result is a substantial year-over-year increase in the real price of homes,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American.

“Most of the markets we follow experienced double-digit real house price increases in February, compared with a year ago. The main story in most markets this spring is the lack of supply. Combined with unfaltering demand, the lack of supply continues to pressure unadjusted prices higher in one of the strongest spring sellers’ markets seen in recent memory. Even so, it’s important to note that wages continue to grow and the level of affordability in most markets remains high by historical standards,” said Fleming.

Additional Quotes from Chief Economist Mark Fleming

  • “The average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage increased two basis points between January and February, and has held fairly steady after increasing almost 75 basis points between November and December 2016.”
  • “Wages continue to move higher, growing at an annual pace of 2.8 percent in February 2017, partially offsetting the impact of higher mortgage rates and increasing house prices on affordability.”
  • “Homes, on a real purchasing-power adjusted basis, are 11.0 percent more expensive than they were a year ago.”
  • “For the second consecutive month, real house prices increased on a year-over-year basis in all the metropolitan areas tracked by First American.”
  • “Jacksonville, Fla. continues to lead the nation in declining housing affordability, which fell 20.6 percent in the last 12 months. Like many others markets, Jacksonville has a very low supply of homes listed for sale.”

February 2017 Real House Price State Highlights

  • The five states with the greatest year-over-year increase in the RHPI are: New York (+15.1 percent), Colorado (+4.9 percent), Wisconsin (+14.9 percent), Alabama (+14.3 percent) and Vermont (+14.1 percent).
  • The only state with a year-over-year decrease in the RHPI is: Mississippi (-2.7 percent).

February 2017 Real House Price Local Market Highlights

  • Among the Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) tracked by First American, the five markets with the greatest year-over-year increase in the RHPI are: Jacksonville, Fla. (+20.6 percent), Milwaukee (+17.3 percent), Charlotte, N.C. (+16.5 percent), Cincinnati (+16.3 percent), and Denver (+15.4 percent).
  • Among the CBSAs tracked by First American, the markets with the smallest year-over-year increase in the RHPI are: Virginia Beach, Va. (+5.3 percent), Hartford, Conn. (+5.5 percent), Pittsburgh (+6.3 percent), San Francisco (+6.6 percent), and Boston (+8.2 percent)

Next Release

The next release of the First American Real House Price Index will be the week of May 29, 2017 for March 2017 data.

Methodology

The methodology statement for the First American Real House Price Index is available here.

Disclaimer

Opinions, estimates, forecasts and other views contained in this page are those of First American’s Chief Economist, do not necessarily represent the views of First American or its management, should not be construed as indicating First American’s business prospects or expected results, and are subject to change without notice. Although the First American Economics team attempts to provide reliable, useful information, it does not guarantee that the information is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. © 2017 by First American. Information from this page may be used with proper attribution.

About First American

First American Financial Corporation (NYSE: FAF) is a leading provider of title insurance, settlement services and risk solutions for real estate transactions that traces its heritage back to 1889. First American also provides title plant management services; title and other real property records and images; valuation products and services; home warranty products; property and casualty insurance; and banking, trust and investment advisory services. With revenues of $5.6 billion in 2016, the company offers its products and services directly and through its agents throughout the United States and abroad. In both 2016 and 2017, First American was recognized by Fortune® magazine as one of the 100 best companies to work for in America. More information about the company can be found at www.firstam.com.

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