What Happens to the Real Estate Market When Supply Falls for 25 Straight Months?

Home Prices Rose 7.1 Percent as Home Sales Stalled in October

Seattle, WA – November 16, 2017 (BUSINESS WIRE) (NASDAQ: RDFN) — Home price growth was strong in October, up 7.6 percent compared to a year ago, according to Redfin (www.redfin.com), the next-generation real estate brokerage. The median sale price was $288,000 across the markets Redfin serves. Sales were essentially unchanged from October of last year, down 0.1 percent. Home sales have declined year over year for the past four months.

Redfin

“Despite strong buyer demand, sales are sputtering due to low inventory,” said Redfin chief economist Nela Richardson. “The last time we saw a substantial increase in the number of homes for sale, Donald Trump was a candidate in a Republican field of 11.”

Nationally, the number of homes for sale plunged 12.2 percent, the sharpest year-over-year decline in inventory since 2013. There was a 3.1-month supply of homes in October. Less than six months of supply signals the market is tilted in favor of sellers. We have not seen more than 6 months of supply in any month since January 2012.

The low-inventory situation is particularly stark in West Coast markets. The San Jose metro area saw the steepest year-over-year inventory drop and the sharpest corresponding price increase. There were fewer than half as many homes for sale in October as there were a year earlier, sending prices up 19.2 percent to a median of $1.05 million. In San Jose the typical home that sold last month found a buyer in 12 days.

Just eight of the 74 metros Redfin tracks posted year-over-year increases in inventory. These rare supply gains were seen primarily in smaller markets in the Midwest and the South, including Austin, New Orleans, St. Louis, Dallas, and Nashville.

Nationally, the typical home spent 44 days on the market, five days fewer than last October. Last month, average sale-to-list price ratio was 98.2 percent, up from 97.9 percent a year earlier, and 22.5 percent of homes sold above their list price, compared with 21.5 percent in October 2016.

“The House of Representatives and Senate are debating tax reform proposals that could have a significant impact on homeowners, particularly in states with expensive homes and high property taxes like California, New York and New Jersey,” said Richardson. Both the House and Senate versions of the tax-overhaul proposal include some reduction of the state and local income- and property-tax (SALT) deductions, and the House version of the bill proposes changes to the Mortgage Interest Deduction.

Nick Boniakowski, Redfin market manager in Northern New Jersey, reports that the uncertainty is leading some prospective homebuyers to take a step back from the market while they wait to see what happens with the tax bill and how it could affect their budgets. Still, many are pressing forward with their home purchases, knowing the bills are subject to change and both the timeline and likelihood of passage are unclear.

“If either of the current bills were to pass, it’s likely that buyer demand would weaken in expensive, high-tax states, especially for homes at higher price points, though any market shifts will be gradual,” said Richardson.

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Other October Highlights

Competition

  • Seattle, WA was the fastest market with the typical home finding a buyer in just 10 days, down from 13 days a year earlier. San Jose, CA and Boston, MA were the next fastest markets with 12 and 14 median days on market, followed by Oakland, CA (15) and San Francisco, CA (15).
  • The most competitive market in October was San Francisco, CA where 78.6% of homes sold above list price, followed by 76.3% in San Jose, CA, 63.7% in Oakland, CA, 45.6% in Seattle, WA, and 42.8% in Tacoma, WA.

Prices

  • 9 metro areas had double-digit increases in the median sale price. San Jose, CA led the nation in price growth, rising 19.2% since last year to $1,049,000. Seattle, WA had the second highest growth at 16.5%, followed by Las Vegas, NV (14.6%), Oakland, CA (13.1%), and Salt Lake City, UT (12.6%).
  • 6 metros saw price declines in October. Prices in Columbia, SC declined the most since last year falling 5.4 percent to $139,000.

Sales

  • 7 out of 74 metros saw sales surge by double digits from last year. Camden, NJ led the nation in year-over-year sales growth, up 31%, followed by Baltimore, MD, up 19%. Tacoma, WA rounded out the top three with sales up 18% from a year ago.
  • Baton Rouge, LA saw the largest decline in sales since last year, falling 20.3%. Home sales in Fort Lauderdale, FL declined by 18.0%.

Inventory

  • San Jose, CA had the largest decrease in overall inventory, falling 51.6% since last October. San Francisco, CA (-28.5%), Atlanta, GA (-27.8%), and Buffalo, NY (-26.7%) also saw far fewer homes available on the market than a year ago.
  • Only 8 of 74 metros posted inventory gains, these were primarily smaller metro areas in the South and Midwest. Raleigh, NC had the largest increase in the number of homes for sale, up 16.1% year over year, followed by Baton Rouge, LA (12.9%), Austin, TX (8.8%), New Orleans, LA (7.5%), St. Louis, MO (4.8%), Dallas, TX (4.1%), Nashville, TN (2.7%) and Allentown, PA (2.5%).

To read the full report, complete with data and charts, please visit the following link: https://www.redfin.com/blog/2017/11/market-tracker-october-2017.html

About Redfin

Redfin (www.redfin.com) is the next-generation real estate brokerage, combining its own full-service agents with modern technology to redefine real estate in the consumer’s favor. Founded by software engineers, Redfin has the country’s #1 brokerage website and offers a host of online tools to consumers, including the Redfin Estimate, the automated home-value estimate with the industry’s lowest published error rate for listed homes. Homebuyers and sellers enjoy a full-service, technology-powered experience from Redfin real estate agents, while saving thousands in commissions. Redfin serves more than 80 major metro areas across the U.S. The company has closed more than $50 billion in home sales.

Contacts
Redfin Journalist Services
Alina Ptaszynski
(206) 588-6863
press@redfin.com

Home Prices Boom 10 Years After Housing Crisis

New report reveals surprising data as prices return to bubble levels

Santa Clara, CA – November 13, 2017 (PRNewswire) Home prices have returned to the boom levels of a decade ago — which foreshadowed the bursting of the real estate “bubble” and the onset of The Great Recession — but today’s housing market is starkly different, according to data released today from realtor.com®, a leading online real estate destination. Backed by tighter lending standards and more solid economic fundamentals, current price appreciation is being driven by strong supply-and-demand dynamics with no signs of boom era flipping or over-construction.

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On the surface, today’s housing market looks suspiciously similar to the pre-recession years with rising home prices and feverish buyer demand. However, a deeper analytical assessment reveals material differences — historically low inventory levels, much tighter lending standards and significant job and household growth — and a strong housing market backed by economic fundamentals.

Home Prices are Soaring
The U.S. median home sales price in 2016 was $236,000, 2 percent higher than in 2006.1 In fact, 31 of the 50 largest U.S. metros are back to pre-recession price levels. Austin, Texas, has seen the largest price growth in the last decade with a 63 percent increase.(1) It’s followed by Denver, at 54 percent and Dallas at 52 percent. Three markets — Las Vegas, Tucson, Ariz., and Riverside, Calif., — remained more than 20 percent below 2006 price levels at the end of 2016, at 25 percent, 22 percent and 22 percent, respectively.1 Additionally, realtor.com® national data shows that listing prices have been up double-digits for the majority of 2017.

“As we compare today’s market dynamics to those of a decade ago, it’s important to remember rising prices didn’t cause the housing crash,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist for realtor.com®. “It was rising prices stoked by subprime and low documentation mortgages, as well as people looking for short term gains — versus today’s truer market vitality — that created the environment for the crash.”

Lending Standards are Tight
The largest difference in the last decade is that lending standards are the tightest they have been in almost 20 years. Today, the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act requires loan originators to show verified documentation that a borrower is able to repay the loan. As a result, the median 2017 home loan FICO score was 734, significantly up from 700 in 2006, on a scale of 330 – 830.(2)

The bottom 10 percent of borrowers also have much higher credit scores with a FICO of 649 in 2017, from 602 in 2006.2 While veterans and others with specialized mortgages can still put zero percent down, these mortgages include additional restrictions to ensure they can be paid back.

“Lending standards are critical to the health of the market,” added Hale. “Unlike today, the boom’s under-regulated lending environment allowed borrowing beyond repayable amounts and atypical mortgage products, which pushed up home prices without the backing of income and equity.”

Flipping and Over-Building Are in Check
A decade ago, the widespread belief that prices could never go down spurred rampant home flipping and building. Today, tight lending standards have kept flipping and over-building in check, but are contributing to severely constrained construction levels.

Prior to the crash, flipping became increasingly mainstream with amateur flippers taking on multiple loans. In 2006, the share of flipped homes reached 8.6 percent of all sales, exceeding 20 percent in some metros such as Washington, D.C. and Chicago.(3) With today’s tight lending environment limiting borrowing power, flipping accounted for 5 percent of sales in 2016, a more restrained level.(3)

Over-building was another indicator of the unhealthy market conditions in the early 2000s. As prices rose, builders kept building, regardless of demand. In 2006, there were 1.4 single-family housing starts for every household formed, well above the healthy level of one necessary to keep up with the market.4 Today’s market is well below normal construction levels at only 0.7 single-family household starts per household formation.4 While the lack of over-building is generally positive for the market, the current environment of under-building is having a material impact on supply and escalating prices.

Today’s Home Prices Driven by Economic Fundamentals
Strong employment and demand paired with severely limited supply is driving price escalation today. Employment was also strong in 2006, but years of over-building put an oversupply drag on the market.

In October 2017, unemployment is now at 4.1 percent — a 17-year low, with more than 150,000 jobs created on average each month in 2017.(5) In 30 of the 50 largest U.S. metros, unemployment is less than half of 2010 levels.5 In 2016, there were 8 million more workers on payrolls than in 2006 and 10 million more households.(5) At the same time, there are 600,000 fewer total housing starts and nearly 700,000 fewer single-family housing starts.(4)

Hale added, “The healthy economy is creating more jobs and households, but not giving these people enough places to live. Rapid price increases will not last forever. We expect a gradual tapering as buyers are priced out of the market – not a market correction, but an easing of demand and price growth as renting or adding roommates becomes a more affordable alternative.”

Millennial job growth has also contributed to rising demand. In September, employment reached 79 percent in the 25-34 age group, back up to 2006 levels and 5 percent higher than 2010. In fact, millennials made up 52 percent of home shoppers this past spring and with the largest cohort of millennials expected to turn 30 in 2020, their demand for homes is only expected to increase.

On top of escalating demand, the supply of homes available also is significantly constrained. In 2016, single-family inventory reached a 22-year historic low at 1.45 million homes for sale.(6) October 2017 marked the 26th consecutive month of year-over-year declines in realtor.com inventory. The market is currently averaging 4.2 months supply, which is significantly faster than 2007’s 6.4 months supply.(6) Vacancies also are very tight with for-sale vacancies dropping to 1.3 million in 2016, compared to 1.9 million in 2006. Rental vacancies hit 3.2 million in 2016, compared to 3.7 in 2006.(7)

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Largest 50 Markets Price Appreciation Since 2006

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About realtor.com®
Realtor.com® is the trusted resource for home buyers, sellers and dreamers, offering the most comprehensive source of for-sale properties, among competing national sites, and the information, tools and professional expertise to help people move confidently through every step of their home journey. It pioneered the world of digital real estate 20 years ago, and today helps make all things home simple, efficient and enjoyable. Realtor.com® is operated by News Corp [NASDAQ: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc. under a perpetual license from the National Association of REALTORS®. For more information, visit realtor.com®.

(1) Single-family home price sales – NAR/Moody’s Analytics Estimates
(2) Urban Institute
(3) Corelogic
(4) U.S. Census Bureau – Moody’s Analytics Estimates
(5) Bureau of Labor Statistics
(6) National Association of Realtors
(7) Census, Housing Vacancy Survey

Media Contact:
Realtor.com®
Lexie Puckett Holbert
lexie.puckett@move.com

CoreLogic US Home Price Report Reveals Nearly Half of the Nation’s Largest 50 Markets are Overvalued

  • National Home Prices Up 7 Percent in September 2017
  • Home Prices Projected to Increase 4.7 Percent by September 2018
  • West Virginia Was the Only State That Lost Ground, Down 0.3 Percent

IRVINE, CA – November 7th 2017 (BUSINESS WIRE) CoreLogic® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released its CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for September 2017, which shows home prices are up strongly both year over year and month over month. Home prices nationally increased year over year by 7 percent from September 2016 to September 2017, and on a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 0.9 percent in September 2017 compared with August 2017,* according to the CoreLogic HPI.

CoreLogic Logo

Looking ahead, the CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase by 4.7 percent on a year-over-year basis from September 2017 to September 2018, and on a month-over-month basis home prices are expected to decrease by 0.1 percent from September 2017 to October 2017. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

“Heading into the fall, home price growth continues to grow at a brisk pace,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “This appreciation reflects the low for-sale inventory that is holding back sales and pushing up prices. The CoreLogic Single-Family Rent Index rose about 3 percent over the last year, less than half the rise in the national Home Price Index.”

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According to CoreLogic Market Condition Indicators (MCI) data, an analysis of housing values in the country’s 100 largest metropolitan areas based on housing stock, 36 percent of cities have an overvalued housing stock as of September 2017. The MCI analysis categorizes home prices in individual markets as undervalued, at value or overvalued by comparing home prices to their long-run, sustainable levels, which are supported by local market fundamentals such as disposable income. Also, as of September, 28 percent of the top 100 metropolitan areas were undervalued and 36 percent were at value. When looking at only the top 50 markets based on housing stock, 48 percent were overvalued, 16 percent were undervalued and 36 percent were at value. The MCI analysis defines an overvalued housing market as one in which home prices are at least 10 percent higher than the long-term, sustainable level, while an undervalued housing market is one in which home prices are at least 10 percent below the sustainable level.

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“A strengthening economy, healthy consumer balance sheets and low mortgage interest rates are supporting the continued strong demand for residential real estate,” said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “While demand and home price growth is in a sweet spot, a third of metropolitan markets are overvalued and this will become more of an issue if prices continue to rise next year as we anticipate.“

*August 2017 data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results.

Methodology
The CoreLogic HPI™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the “Single-Family Combined” tier representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indexes are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.

CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers—“Single-Family Combined” (both attached and detached) and “Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales.” As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA) and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95-percent statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2.0 percent margin of error for the index.

Source: CoreLogic
The data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient’s publication or broadcast. This data may not be resold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient’s parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact Lori Guyton at lguyton@cvic.com or Bill Campbell at bill@campbelllewis.com. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. The data are compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.

About CoreLogic
CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX) is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider. The company’s combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 4.5 billion records spanning more than 50 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.

CORELOGIC, the CoreLogic logo, CoreLogic HPI, CoreLogic HPI Forecast and HPI are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries.

Contacts

CoreLogic

For real estate industry and trade media:
Bill Campbell
(212) 995-8057
bill@campbelllewis.com

or

For general news media:
Lori Guyton
(901) 277-6066
lguyton@cvic.com

Redfin: Home Prices Surged 7.7 Percent in August as Inventory Fell 12.4 Percent

Hurricane Harvey sent Houston home sales down 29 percent while new listings tumbled 12 percent

Seattle, WA – September 14, 2017 (BUSINESS WIRE) (NASDAQ: RDFN) — Home prices in August surged 7.7 percent, the largest year-over-year price gain since May 2015, according to Redfin (www.redfin.com), the next-generation real estate brokerage. The national median sale price was $293,000, flat from July. None of the metro areas Redfin tracks saw prices decline in August. The median value of off-market homes in August was $251,000, as measured by the Redfin Estimate, up 0.7 percent from July.

Redfin Logo

Sales in August fell 5.5 percent compared to last year, the largest decline posted since July 2016. This follows the 5 percent decline posted in July by the Redfin Housing Demand Index.

The number of homes for sale plunged 12.4 percent, the largest year-over-year decline in a 23-month streak of declining inventory. The number of new listings in August was down 1 percent from a year ago, leaving just 2.8 months of supply. Less than six months of supply signals the market is tilted in favor of sellers.

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Nearly a quarter (24.9%) of homes sold above their list price. The average sale-to-list ratio was 98.5 percent. The typical home that sold in August went under contract in 39 days, two days longer than July’s record-setting pace, typical of a seasonal slowdown.

“The real estate market still favors sellers, with strong demand and rising prices, but perhaps less so now than earlier in the year,” said Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman. “Newly listed homes are selling faster in 2017 than in 2016, but whereas in April the market was nine days faster than the 2016 market, in August it was five; the gap between 2016 and 2017 is narrowing slightly. Normally such differences wouldn’t be worth mentioning, but Redfin managers of coastal markets where demand has been strongest are now reporting that some buyers are stepping back from higher prices.”

Hurricane Harvey’s Impact on the Houston Real Estate Market

Hurricane Harvey sent Houston sales falling 29 percent year over year, as buyers backed out of purchasing flooded homes and home settlements were delayed awaiting required reinspections. Flood damage is limiting the number of homes being listed for sale. New listings declined 12.2 percent compared to last August. Despite the decline in new listings, inventory was still up 5.7 percent compared to last year.

While most real estate activity halted for a few days immediately following the storm, Redfin agents reported rebounding buyer interest, tours and offers in the final days of the month.

Other August Data

Competition

  • Seattle, WA was the fastest market, with nearly half of all homes pending sale in just 8 days, down from 10 days from a year earlier. Portland, OR and Denver, CO were the next fastest markets with 11 and 12 median days on market, followed by Boston, MA (13) and Tacoma, WA (13).
  • The most competitive market in August was San Jose, CA where 73.8% of homes sold above list price, followed by 72.3% in San Francisco, CA, 67.3% in Oakland, CA, 51.3% in Seattle, WA, and 48.1% in Tacoma, WA.

Prices

  • Seattle, WA had the nation’s highest price growth, rising 16% since last year to $522,000. Fort Lauderdale, FL had the second highest growth at 15.6% year-over-year price growth, followed by Cincinnati, OH (14.5%), Las Vegas, NV (14%), and San Jose, CA (13.4%).
  • No metros saw a price decline in August.
  • Detroit, MI had the highest month-over-month increase in the value of off-market homes up 3%, as measured by the Redfin Estimate; this mirrored price growth for on-market homes, up 5.3% year over year.

Sales

  • Columbia, SC saw the largest decline in sales since last year, falling 93.2%. Home sales in Newark, NJ and Houston, TX declined by 75.3% and 29.1%, respectively.
  • 4 out of 75 metros saw sales surge by double digits from last year. Camden, NJ led the nation in year-over-year sales growth, up 22%, followed by Baton Rouge, LA, up 21%. Baltimore, MD rounded out the top three with sales up 19% from a year ago.

Inventory

  • San Jose, CA had the largest decrease in overall inventory, falling 49.9% since last August. Oakland, CA (-31.8%), San Francisco, CA (-30.9%), and Tampa, FL (-26.8%) also saw far fewer homes available on the market than a year ago.
  • Austin, TX had the highest increase in the number of homes for sale, up 13.9% year over year, followed by New Orleans, LA (8.3%) and Houston, TX (5.7%).

Redfin Estimate

  • The median list price-to-Redfin Estimate ratio was 94.1% in San Francisco, the lowest of any market. This indicates the typical home for sale in August was listed at a price 5.9% below its estimated value. Only 8.9% of homes in San Francisco were listed for more than their Redfin Estimate.
  • Conversely, the median list price-to-Redfin Estimate ratio was 103% in Miami, FL and 102.6% in West Palm Beach, which means sellers are listing their homes for more than the estimated value in those metro areas. In Miami, 64.6% of homes were listed above their Redfin Estimate.

To read the full report, complete with data and charts, click here.

About Redfin

Redfin (www.redfin.com) is the next-generation real estate brokerage, combining its own full-service agents with modern technology to redefine real estate in the consumer’s favor. Founded by software engineers, Redfin has the country’s #1 brokerage website and offers a host of online tools to consumers, including the Redfin Estimate, the automated home-value estimate with the industry’s lowest published error rate for listed homes. Homebuyers and sellers enjoy a full-service, technology-powered experience from Redfin real estate agents, while saving thousands in commissions. Redfin serves more than 80 major metro areas across the U.S. The company has closed more than $50 billion in home sales.

Contacts

Redfin Journalist Services:
Alina Ptaszynski
(206) 588-6863
press@redfin.com

Redfin: Home Prices and Buyer Competition Hit New Highs in June as Inventory Drought Dragged into 21st Consecutive Month

New records set: 26.6 percent of homes sold in June went for more than their asking price and the typical home found a buyer in 36 days

In Denver, Seattle and Portland, the typical home sold in June was off the market in a week

Seattle, WA – July 13, 2017 (BUSINESS WIRE) U.S. home prices rose 7.3 percent to a median sale price of $298,000 in June, according to Redfin (www.redfin.com), the next-generation real estate brokerage. This is the highest national median sale price Redfin has recorded since the company began keeping track in 2010.

Redfin Logo

Home sales increased 1.9 percent compared to last year, constrained by a long-standing inventory shortage. The number of homes for sale fell 10.7 percent, leaving just 2.5 months of supply—the lowest supply on record since 2010—and well below the six months that represents a market balanced between buyers and sellers.

Every record in market speed and competition that was set in May was broken again in June. The typical home that sold in June went under contract in 36 days, one day faster than in May, setting a new record-fast pace for home sales. Denver, Portland and Seattle were the fastest-moving markets, with the typical home in each market finding a buyer in just seven days. More than a quarter (26.6%) of homes sold above their list price, the highest percentage Redfin has recorded. The average sale-to-list price ratio hit a record high of 95.5 percent in June.

“This market is unlike any we’ve ever seen before,” said Redfin chief economist Nela Richardson. “Month after month, new records are set for the pace at which homes are going under contract. Demand continues to swell while supply troughs. For buyers competing in this market, it’s survival of the fittest. The strongest offers that are most likely to close quickly and smoothly rise to the top of the pile.”

Regional June Highlights

Competition

  • Denver, CO, Portland, OR and Seattle, WA tied for fastest market at 7 median days on market, followed by Grand Rapids, MI (8) and Boston, MA (9).
  • The most competitive market in June was San Jose, CA where 73.7% of homes sold above list price, followed by 70.6% in San Francisco, CA, 69.8% in Oakland, CA, 62.3% in Seattle, WA, and 52.6% in Tacoma, WA.

Prices

  • Fort Lauderdale, FL had the nation’s highest price growth, rising 15.6% since last year to $260,000, followed by Nashville, TN (14%), Seattle, WA (13.5%), Tacoma, WA (12.2%), and Deltona, FL (12.1%).
  • Two metros saw price declines in June: Greensboro, NC (-1.2%), and Tulsa, OK (-0.3%).

Sales

  • Ten out of 89 metros saw sales surge by double digits from last year. Poughkeepsie, NY led the nation in year-over-year sales growth, up 42.6%, followed by Camden, NJ, up 23.1%. Lakeland, FL rounded out the top three with sales up 16.3% from a year ago.
  • Buffalo, NY saw the largest decline in sales since last year, falling 26.9%. Home sales in Rochester, NY and Fort Lauderdale, FL declined by 21.2% and 15.5%, respectively.

Inventory

  • San Jose, CA had the largest decrease in overall inventory, falling 42.2% since last June. Rochester, NY (-29.7%), San Francisco, CA (-26.6%), and Tampa, FL (-26.5%) also saw far fewer homes available on the market than a year ago.
  • Three metros in Utah saw the highest increases in the number of homes for sale. Ogden, UT had the highest increase in inventory, up 40.5% year over year, followed by Provo, UT (36.7%) and Salt Lake City, UT (30.1%).

To read the full report, complete with data and charts, click here.

About Redfin

Redfin (www.redfin.com) is the next-generation real estate brokerage, combining its own full-service agents with modern technology to redefine real estate in the consumer’s favor. Founded by software engineers, Redfin has the country’s #1 brokerage website and offers a host of online tools to consumers, including the Redfin Estimate, the automated home-value estimate with the industry’s lowest published error rate for listed homes. Homebuyers and sellers enjoy a full-service, technology-powered experience from Redfin real estate agents, while saving thousands in commissions. Redfin serves more than 80 major metro areas across the U.S. The company has closed more than $40 billion in home sales.

Contacts

Redfin Journalist Services:
Alina Ptaszynski, 206-588-6863
press@redfin.com

CoreLogic US Home Price Report Shows Prices Up 6.9 Percent in April 2017

  • Multiple Offers Drive Prices Upward in Select Markets
  • Mortgage Rates Fluctuate During Spring Buying Season
  • Home Price Gains Strongest in the West

Irvine, CA – June 6th, 2017 (BUSINESS WIRE) CoreLogic® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released its CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for April 2017 which shows home prices are up both year over year and month over month.

CoreLogic Logo

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 6.9 percent in April 2017 compared with April 2016 and increased month over month by 1.6 percent in April 2017 compared with March 2017,* according to the CoreLogic HPI.

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase by 5.1 percent on a year-over-year basis from April 2017 to April 2018, and on a month-over-month basis home prices are expected to increase by 0.7 percent from April 2017 to May 2017. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

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“Mortgage rates in April dipped back to their lowest level since November of last year, spurring home-buying activity,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “In some metro areas, there has been a bidding frenzy as multiple contracts are placed on a single home. This has led home-price growth to outpace rent gains. Nationally, home prices were up 6.9 percent over the last year, while rent growth for single-family rental homes recorded a 3 percent rise through April, according to the CoreLogic Single-Family Rental Index.”

“Interest rates on fixed-rate mortgages are down by one-fourth of a percentage point since mid-March, just in time to support the spring home-buying season,” said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “Some metro areas have low for-sale inventory, short time-on-market trends and homes that sell above the list price. Geographically, gains were strongest in the West with Washington and Utah posting double-digit gains.”

* March 2017 data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results.

Methodology

The CoreLogic HPI™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the “Single-Family Combined” tier representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indexes are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.

CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers—“Single-Family Combined” (both attached and detached) and “Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales.” As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, CBSA and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95-percent statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2.0 percent margin of error for the index.

Source: CoreLogic

The data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient’s publication or broadcast. This data may not be resold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient’s parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact Lori Guyton at lguyton@cvic.com or Bill Campbell at bill@campbelllewis.com. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. The data are compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.

About CoreLogic

CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX) is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider. The company’s combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 4.5 billion records spanning more than 50 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.

CORELOGIC, the CoreLogic logo, CoreLogic HPI, CoreLogic HPI Forecast and HPI are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries.

Contacts

CoreLogic

For real estate industry and trade media:

Bill Campbell
(212) 995-8057
bill@campbelllewis.com

or

For general news media:

Lori Guyton
(901) 277-6066
lguyton@cvic.com