American Dream Revised: New Study Says Homeowners Shouldn’t Count on Property Appreciation Creating Wealth

Home Ownership Should be Seen More as Forced Savings, Says FAU Expert

Boca Raton, FL – Nov. 16, 2017 (PRNewswire-USNewswire) The American Dream of homeownership as the path to creating wealth may be due for a revision. A new study by faculty at Florida Atlantic University, Florida International University and the University of Wyoming finds that the property appreciation most homeowners expect when buying a home may be relatively meaningless in terms of building wealth.

The study, published in the Journal of Housing Research, found that households through their own actions have more control over their overall wealth than do uncontrollable market variables. That is, any gains from property appreciation have been historically offset by greater gains in the stock and bond markets.

“When considering buying and building wealth through equity appreciation versus renting and reinvesting in a portfolio of stocks and bonds, property appreciation does not change the results,” said study co-author Ken Johnson, Ph.D., real estate economist at FAU’s College of Business and co-developer of the Beracha, Hardin and Johnson Buy vs. Rent Index. “On average, renting and reinvesting wins in terms of wealth creation regardless of property appreciation, because property appreciation is highly correlated with gains in the traditional financial asset classes of stocks and bonds.”

So, the old adage that those who choose not to buy a home are “throwing their money away on rent” isn’t necessarily true. That statement inherently assumes that any monies that someone would have used for a down payment and/or any rent savings are spent on consumption. But what if the renter instead reinvests those monies and earns a return?

“When you assume that those monies are reinvested at a rate of return, renting, on average, wins in terms of wealth creation,” Johnson said.

The analysis showed that households that are likely to not reinvest buy-rent cash differentials should mostly own rather than rent their primary residence as ownership forces them to save.

“The American Dream is alive and well but in need of revision,” Johnson said. “To that end, we suggest not all but most should own rather than rent due to ownership’s embedded commitment to save. Owning real estate should be sold as a strategy to create better set of risk-adjusted returns rather than create wealth alone.”

CoreLogic Reports Mortgage Delinquency Rates Lowest in More Than a Decade

  • Overall Mortgage Delinquency Rate Fell 0.6 Percentage Points Year Over Year
  • Foreclosure Rate Declined 0.3 Percentage Points Year Over Year
  • Serious Delinquency Rate Declined 0.5 Percentage Points Year Over Year

Irvine, CA – November 14, 2017 (BUSINESS WIRE) CoreLogic® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released its monthly Loan Performance Insights Report which shows that, nationally, 4.6 percent of mortgages were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due including those in foreclosure) in August 2017. This represents a 0.6 percentage point year-over-year decline in the overall delinquency rate compared with August 2016 when it was 5.2 percent.

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As of August 2017, the foreclosure inventory rate, which measures the share of mortgages in some stage of the foreclosure process, was 0.6 percent, down from 0.9 percent in August 2016. This was the lowest foreclosure inventory rate for the month of August in 11 years since August 2006 when it was 0.5 percent.

Measuring early-stage delinquency rates is important for analyzing the health of the mortgage market. To monitor mortgage performance comprehensively, CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency as well as transition rates, which indicate the percentage of mortgages moving from one stage of delinquency to the next.

The rate for early-stage delinquencies, defined as 30-59 days past due, was 2 percent in August 2017, down slightly from 2.1 percent in August 2016. The share of mortgages that were 60-89 days past due in August 2017 was 0.7 percent, unchanged from August 2016. The serious delinquency rate (90 days or more past due) declined 0.5 percentage points year over year from 2.4 percent in August 2016 to 1.9 percent in August 2017. The 1.9 percent serious delinquency rate in June, July and August of this year marks the lowest level for any month since October 2007 when it was also 1.9 percent, and is also the lowest for the month of August since 2007 when the serious delinquency rate was 1.7 percent. Alaska was the only state to experience a year-over-year increase in its serious delinquency rate in August 2017.

“The effect of the drop in crude oil prices since 2014 has taken a toll on mortgage loan performance in some markets,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Crude oil prices this August were less than half their level three years ago. This has led to oil-related layoffs and an increase in loan delinquency rates in states like Alaska and in oil-centric metro areas like Houston.”

Since early-stage delinquencies can be volatile, CoreLogic also analyzes transition rates. The share of mortgages that transitioned from current to 30-days past due was 0.9 percent in August 2017, unchanged from August 2016. By comparison, in January 2007 just before the start of the financial crisis, the current-to-30-day transition rate was 1.2 percent and it peaked in November 2008 at 2 percent.

“Serious delinquency and foreclosure rates are at their lowest levels in more than a decade, signaling the final stages of recovery in the U.S. housing market,” said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “As the construction and mortgage industries move forward, there needs to be not only a ramp up in homebuilding, but also a focus on maintaining prudent underwriting practices to avoid repeating past mistakes.”

For ongoing housing trends and data, visit the CoreLogic Insights Blog: www.corelogic.com/blog.

Methodology

The data in this report represents foreclosure and delinquency activity reported through August 2017.

The data in this report accounts for only first liens against a property and does not include secondary liens. The delinquency, transition and foreclosure rates are measured only against homes that have an outstanding mortgage. Homes without mortgage liens are not typically subject to foreclosure and are, therefore, excluded from the analysis. Approximately one-third of homes nationally are owned outright and do not have a mortgage. CoreLogic has approximately 85 percent coverage of U.S. foreclosure data.

Source: CoreLogic

The data provided is for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient’s publication or broadcast. This data may not be re-sold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient’s parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data is illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact Lori Guyton at lguyton@cvic.com or Bill Campbell at bill@campbelllewis.com. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. This data is compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.

About CoreLogic

CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX) is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider. The company’s combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 4.5 billion records spanning more than 50 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.

CORELOGIC and the CoreLogic logo are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries.

Contacts

CoreLogic
For real estate industry and trade media:
Bill Campbell, 212-995-8057
bill@campbelllewis.com
or
For general news media:
Lori Guyton, 901-277-6066
lguyton@cvic.com

Home Prices Boom 10 Years After Housing Crisis

New report reveals surprising data as prices return to bubble levels

Santa Clara, CA – November 13, 2017 (PRNewswire) Home prices have returned to the boom levels of a decade ago — which foreshadowed the bursting of the real estate “bubble” and the onset of The Great Recession — but today’s housing market is starkly different, according to data released today from realtor.com®, a leading online real estate destination. Backed by tighter lending standards and more solid economic fundamentals, current price appreciation is being driven by strong supply-and-demand dynamics with no signs of boom era flipping or over-construction.

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On the surface, today’s housing market looks suspiciously similar to the pre-recession years with rising home prices and feverish buyer demand. However, a deeper analytical assessment reveals material differences — historically low inventory levels, much tighter lending standards and significant job and household growth — and a strong housing market backed by economic fundamentals.

Home Prices are Soaring
The U.S. median home sales price in 2016 was $236,000, 2 percent higher than in 2006.1 In fact, 31 of the 50 largest U.S. metros are back to pre-recession price levels. Austin, Texas, has seen the largest price growth in the last decade with a 63 percent increase.(1) It’s followed by Denver, at 54 percent and Dallas at 52 percent. Three markets — Las Vegas, Tucson, Ariz., and Riverside, Calif., — remained more than 20 percent below 2006 price levels at the end of 2016, at 25 percent, 22 percent and 22 percent, respectively.1 Additionally, realtor.com® national data shows that listing prices have been up double-digits for the majority of 2017.

“As we compare today’s market dynamics to those of a decade ago, it’s important to remember rising prices didn’t cause the housing crash,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist for realtor.com®. “It was rising prices stoked by subprime and low documentation mortgages, as well as people looking for short term gains — versus today’s truer market vitality — that created the environment for the crash.”

Lending Standards are Tight
The largest difference in the last decade is that lending standards are the tightest they have been in almost 20 years. Today, the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act requires loan originators to show verified documentation that a borrower is able to repay the loan. As a result, the median 2017 home loan FICO score was 734, significantly up from 700 in 2006, on a scale of 330 – 830.(2)

The bottom 10 percent of borrowers also have much higher credit scores with a FICO of 649 in 2017, from 602 in 2006.2 While veterans and others with specialized mortgages can still put zero percent down, these mortgages include additional restrictions to ensure they can be paid back.

“Lending standards are critical to the health of the market,” added Hale. “Unlike today, the boom’s under-regulated lending environment allowed borrowing beyond repayable amounts and atypical mortgage products, which pushed up home prices without the backing of income and equity.”

Flipping and Over-Building Are in Check
A decade ago, the widespread belief that prices could never go down spurred rampant home flipping and building. Today, tight lending standards have kept flipping and over-building in check, but are contributing to severely constrained construction levels.

Prior to the crash, flipping became increasingly mainstream with amateur flippers taking on multiple loans. In 2006, the share of flipped homes reached 8.6 percent of all sales, exceeding 20 percent in some metros such as Washington, D.C. and Chicago.(3) With today’s tight lending environment limiting borrowing power, flipping accounted for 5 percent of sales in 2016, a more restrained level.(3)

Over-building was another indicator of the unhealthy market conditions in the early 2000s. As prices rose, builders kept building, regardless of demand. In 2006, there were 1.4 single-family housing starts for every household formed, well above the healthy level of one necessary to keep up with the market.4 Today’s market is well below normal construction levels at only 0.7 single-family household starts per household formation.4 While the lack of over-building is generally positive for the market, the current environment of under-building is having a material impact on supply and escalating prices.

Today’s Home Prices Driven by Economic Fundamentals
Strong employment and demand paired with severely limited supply is driving price escalation today. Employment was also strong in 2006, but years of over-building put an oversupply drag on the market.

In October 2017, unemployment is now at 4.1 percent — a 17-year low, with more than 150,000 jobs created on average each month in 2017.(5) In 30 of the 50 largest U.S. metros, unemployment is less than half of 2010 levels.5 In 2016, there were 8 million more workers on payrolls than in 2006 and 10 million more households.(5) At the same time, there are 600,000 fewer total housing starts and nearly 700,000 fewer single-family housing starts.(4)

Hale added, “The healthy economy is creating more jobs and households, but not giving these people enough places to live. Rapid price increases will not last forever. We expect a gradual tapering as buyers are priced out of the market – not a market correction, but an easing of demand and price growth as renting or adding roommates becomes a more affordable alternative.”

Millennial job growth has also contributed to rising demand. In September, employment reached 79 percent in the 25-34 age group, back up to 2006 levels and 5 percent higher than 2010. In fact, millennials made up 52 percent of home shoppers this past spring and with the largest cohort of millennials expected to turn 30 in 2020, their demand for homes is only expected to increase.

On top of escalating demand, the supply of homes available also is significantly constrained. In 2016, single-family inventory reached a 22-year historic low at 1.45 million homes for sale.(6) October 2017 marked the 26th consecutive month of year-over-year declines in realtor.com inventory. The market is currently averaging 4.2 months supply, which is significantly faster than 2007’s 6.4 months supply.(6) Vacancies also are very tight with for-sale vacancies dropping to 1.3 million in 2016, compared to 1.9 million in 2006. Rental vacancies hit 3.2 million in 2016, compared to 3.7 in 2006.(7)

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Largest 50 Markets Price Appreciation Since 2006

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About realtor.com®
Realtor.com® is the trusted resource for home buyers, sellers and dreamers, offering the most comprehensive source of for-sale properties, among competing national sites, and the information, tools and professional expertise to help people move confidently through every step of their home journey. It pioneered the world of digital real estate 20 years ago, and today helps make all things home simple, efficient and enjoyable. Realtor.com® is operated by News Corp [NASDAQ: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc. under a perpetual license from the National Association of REALTORS®. For more information, visit realtor.com®.

(1) Single-family home price sales – NAR/Moody’s Analytics Estimates
(2) Urban Institute
(3) Corelogic
(4) U.S. Census Bureau – Moody’s Analytics Estimates
(5) Bureau of Labor Statistics
(6) National Association of Realtors
(7) Census, Housing Vacancy Survey

Media Contact:
Realtor.com®
Lexie Puckett Holbert
lexie.puckett@move.com

National Association of Realtors® Selects Bank of America Merrill Lynch to Develop Financial Wellness Program for Members

Chicago, IL – November 4th, 2017 (nar.realtor) Nearly nine in 10 Realtors® are independent contractors of their real estate firms and typically don’t have access to traditional employer-provided benefits, such as retirement savings plans. To help Realtors® better secure their financial futures and reach their retirement savings goals, the National Association of Realtors® has selected Bank of America Merrill Lynch to develop a financial wellness program with customized benefits to members who participate.

NAR logo

While the age and business activity of NAR’s membership varies, the median gross income of Realtors® in 2016 was $42,500; 43 percent are not saving for retirement and only 30 percent own investment properties. Upon assuming office, 2017 NAR President Bill Brown pledged to help Realtors® take charge of their financial lives and develop new education and resources for wealth building, business planning and investing in real estate.

“Despite finding great success in their careers, far too many real estate professionals are falling short with their retirement savings goals,” said Brown, a Realtor® from Alamo, California and founder of Investment Properties, a division of his family real estate business. “I’m incredibly excited about this opportunity with Bank of America Merrill Lynch, and I think it’s going to offer tremendous benefit for our members.”

As part of the REALTOR Benefits® Program, the financial wellness program will provide Realtors® with personalized financial education services, as well as online resources and financial workshops. The program will help assess financial wellness delivering a multi-channel program designed to assist NAR members achieve their financial goals based on age, life stage and needs.

“NAR does so much to help homebuyers overcome financial challenges to achieve their dreams, so I made it a priority to help our members build a sustainable financial plan to carry them through slower sales years and into their retirement,” said Brown. “This is a positive step toward making sure our members are on strong financial footing.”

In 2016, NAR launched the eight-hour course Real Estate Investing (link is external): Build Wealth Representing Investors and Becoming One Yourself, which offers strategies to help members with smart practices for investing. The association plans to identify and roll out additional member programs, tools and services to promote financial wellness and wealth building.

Additional information about the Bank of America Merrill Lynch program being developed for Realtors® will soon be available at www.nar.realtor/RealtorBenefits.

The REALTOR Benefits® Program is the official member benefits program of the National Association of Realtors®, connecting members with discounts and unique offers on products and services just for Realtors® from more than 30 companies recognized as leaders in their respective industries.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

Existing-Home Sales to Grow 3.7 Percent in 2018, but Inventory Shortages and Tax Reform Effects Loom

Chicago, IL – November 3rd, 2017 (PRNewswire) The steadily improving U.S economy, sustained job growth, and rising confidence that now is a good time to buy a home should pave the way for an increase in existing-home sales in 2018, but continued supply shortages, and passage of a tax bill that disincentives homeownership, threaten to handcuff what should be stronger activity. That is according to a residential housing and economic forecast session here at the 2017 REALTORS® Conference & Expo.

NAR logo

Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors®, presented his 2018 housing and economic forecast and was joined onstage by Ken Rosen, chairman of Rosen Consulting Group and UC Berkeley’s Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics. Rosen addressed the primary causes for the depressed U.S. homeownership rate and shared his proposed ideas, highlighted in a white paper released earlier today, on how to ensure more creditworthy households can enjoy the personal and financial benefits of owning a home.

“Despite considerable demand all year, pending sales have lost a step in recent months because low supply is pushing prices higher and making homebuying less affordable in several parts of the country,” said Yun.

With a few months of data remaining in 2017, Yun estimates that existing-home sales will finish at a pace of 5.47 million – the best since 2006 (6.47 million), but only a modest improvement (0.4 percent) from 2016 (5.45 million). In 2018, sales are forecast to expand 3.7 percent to 5.67 million. The national median existing-home price is expected to rise to around 5.5 percent this year and next year.

Yun and Rosen, however, both cautioned that the House Ways and Means Committee’s release yesterday of its legislative proposal to overhaul the American tax code could very well affect home sales and prices next year and beyond. The tax bill in its current form is a direct tax hike on homeowners and nullifies the homeownership incentive for all but the top 5 percent of tax filers. Earlier this year, NAR released a full analysis of the House Republican blueprint for reform, finding that it could negatively affect home values by about 10 percent and raise taxes on middle-class homeowners by an average of $815.

Much of Yun and Rosen’s presentation focused on the reasons why many would-be buyers are not reaching the market. NAR’s 2017 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, released earlier this week, revealed that first-time buyers were only 34 percent of sales over the past year, which was the fourth lowest since the survey began 36 years ago.

Rosen, presenting findings from Rosen Consulting Group’s three white papers released this year on the depressed homeownership rate, said a perverse mix of affordability challenges, student loan debt, tight credit conditions and housing supply shortages continue to hamper many households from owning a home. This is despite extremely low mortgage rates that should be fostering the biggest for-sale housing boom in American history.

“Ownership rates are currently below their peak across the younger age groups and in cities that have seen sharp price increases, and it’s not a good thing,” said Rosen, “A higher rate of homeownership makes sense. It is so important to the financial health of the economy. Homeownership helps households accumulate wealth over time, reduces inequality, increases investments in communities and boosts economic growth.”

According to Yun, the biggest impediment to sales right now and into next year is the massive shortage of supply in relation to overall demand. The lagging pace of new home construction in recent years is further creating a logjam in housing turnover. Without enough new homes on the market, homeowners are typically staying put for a longer period of time before selling, typically 10 years, which is keeping inventory low and hurting affordability.

“The lack of inventory has pushed up home prices by 48 percent from the low point in 2011, while wage growth over the same period has been only 15 percent,” said Yun. “Despite improving confidence this year from renters that now is a good time to buy a home, the inability for them to do so is causing them to miss out on the significant wealth gains that homeowners have benefitted from through rising home values.”

Pointing to Los Angeles and the Bay Area as examples of areas with significant affordability constraints, Yun said unhealthy levels of price appreciation are also occurring in many other markets with strong job growth, but without the commensurate rise in housing starts. As a result, the ability to buy a home has become extremely difficult for even those with well-paying jobs and is forcing households to flee expensive areas in the West and Mountain regions for more affordable parts of the country. This in turn could affect future job growth in these areas and ultimately soften housing demand.

Although Yun forecasts single-family housing starts to jump 9.4 percent to 950,000 next year, this is still below the 50-year average of around 1.2 million starts. New single-family home sales are likely to total 606,000 this year and rise to around 690,000 in 2018.

Rosen agreed with Yun’s remarks that a significant boost in residential construction is needed to improve affordability and increase sales. He explained that the white paper released today, “Rebuilding the American Dream: Strategies to Sustainably Increase Homeownership,” identifies 25 ideas to bolster homeownership. They include: overriding restrictive zoning laws, promoting modular construction [to increase supply], a down payment savings program, tackling the burden of student debt, and a nationwide counseling program for homeowners who previously experienced foreclosure and may be hesitant to consider buying a home again, among others.

“A willingness to embrace new ideas will go a long way towards easing the constraints of low supply, student debt and weaker affordability that are currently suppressing homeownership,” said Rosen.

After two consecutive quarters of economic growth of 3 percent, Yun expects GDP to come in around 2.2 percent for the year and to expand to 2.7 percent overall in 2018, as long as job growth remains solid and residential construction picks up.

With the Federal Reserve unwinding its balance sheet and continuing its plan to slowly raise short-term rates, Yun believes mortgage rates will gradually climb towards 4.50 percent by the end of 2018.

“An overwhelming majority of renters want to own a home in the future and believe it is part of their American Dream,” said Yun. “Assuming there are no changes to the tax code that hurt homeownership, the gradually expanding economy and continued job creation should set the stage for a more meaningful increase in home sales in 2018.”

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

Information about NAR is available at www.nar.realtor. This and other news releases are posted in the newsroom in the “About NAR” tab.

CoreLogic US Home Price Report Reveals Nearly Half of the Nation’s Largest 50 Markets are Overvalued

  • National Home Prices Up 7 Percent in September 2017
  • Home Prices Projected to Increase 4.7 Percent by September 2018
  • West Virginia Was the Only State That Lost Ground, Down 0.3 Percent

IRVINE, CA – November 7th 2017 (BUSINESS WIRE) CoreLogic® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released its CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for September 2017, which shows home prices are up strongly both year over year and month over month. Home prices nationally increased year over year by 7 percent from September 2016 to September 2017, and on a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 0.9 percent in September 2017 compared with August 2017,* according to the CoreLogic HPI.

CoreLogic Logo

Looking ahead, the CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase by 4.7 percent on a year-over-year basis from September 2017 to September 2018, and on a month-over-month basis home prices are expected to decrease by 0.1 percent from September 2017 to October 2017. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

“Heading into the fall, home price growth continues to grow at a brisk pace,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “This appreciation reflects the low for-sale inventory that is holding back sales and pushing up prices. The CoreLogic Single-Family Rent Index rose about 3 percent over the last year, less than half the rise in the national Home Price Index.”

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According to CoreLogic Market Condition Indicators (MCI) data, an analysis of housing values in the country’s 100 largest metropolitan areas based on housing stock, 36 percent of cities have an overvalued housing stock as of September 2017. The MCI analysis categorizes home prices in individual markets as undervalued, at value or overvalued by comparing home prices to their long-run, sustainable levels, which are supported by local market fundamentals such as disposable income. Also, as of September, 28 percent of the top 100 metropolitan areas were undervalued and 36 percent were at value. When looking at only the top 50 markets based on housing stock, 48 percent were overvalued, 16 percent were undervalued and 36 percent were at value. The MCI analysis defines an overvalued housing market as one in which home prices are at least 10 percent higher than the long-term, sustainable level, while an undervalued housing market is one in which home prices are at least 10 percent below the sustainable level.

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“A strengthening economy, healthy consumer balance sheets and low mortgage interest rates are supporting the continued strong demand for residential real estate,” said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “While demand and home price growth is in a sweet spot, a third of metropolitan markets are overvalued and this will become more of an issue if prices continue to rise next year as we anticipate.“

*August 2017 data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results.

Methodology
The CoreLogic HPI™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the “Single-Family Combined” tier representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indexes are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.

CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers—“Single-Family Combined” (both attached and detached) and “Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales.” As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA) and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95-percent statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2.0 percent margin of error for the index.

Source: CoreLogic
The data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient’s publication or broadcast. This data may not be resold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient’s parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact Lori Guyton at lguyton@cvic.com or Bill Campbell at bill@campbelllewis.com. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. The data are compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.

About CoreLogic
CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX) is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider. The company’s combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 4.5 billion records spanning more than 50 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.

CORELOGIC, the CoreLogic logo, CoreLogic HPI, CoreLogic HPI Forecast and HPI are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries.

Contacts

CoreLogic

For real estate industry and trade media:
Bill Campbell
(212) 995-8057
bill@campbelllewis.com

or

For general news media:
Lori Guyton
(901) 277-6066
lguyton@cvic.com