Owner Perception of Home Values Dropped 50% in March, According to Quicken Loans Study

  • Quicken Loans’ National HPPI shows appraised values 0.78% lower than homeowners estimated in March
  • Home values dipped 0.20% nationally in March, but posted a 3.37% year-over-year increase, according to the Quicken Loans HVI

Detroit, MI – April 9, 2019 (PRNewswire) Homeowners’ average estimate of their home’s value stayed consistent in March, while appraised values dipped – widening the gap between the two more than 50 percent since February. In March, the average appraisal was 0.78 percent lower than homeowners expected, according to Quicken Loans’ National Home Price Perception Index (HPPI), compared to the previous month when appraisers’ opinions were 0.50 percent lower than what owners estimated.

Quicken Loans’ National HPPI shows appraised values 0.78% lower than homeowners estimated in March
Quicken Loans’ National HPPI shows appraised values 0.78% lower than homeowners estimated in March

Despite the widening of the difference between homeowners’ and appraisers’ opinion in the National HPPI, owners shouldn’t be too surprised in most of the country’s metro areas. Nearly 60% of the areas measured received appraisals that were within 1 percent higher or lower than what was expected. Boston remains the top of the area where appraisals are coming back higher than estimated. On the flipside, Chicago continues to remain at the bottom of the list with the average appraisal nearly 2 percent less than the homeowner expected.

“This month’s fluctuation in the HPPI was driven more by a dip in home values than a change in the owners’ viewpoint. Homeowners are often reluctant to believe their house has lowered in value, even at a slight monthly fluctuation,” said Banfield. “Depending on the area, appraised values are either growing at a much more measured pace, or have taken a step back from their meteoric rise. Homeowners are usually slower to realize change – in either direction – than the appraisers who study the market on a daily basis. This can lead to a slight widening of the perception gap when there is a turn in the market.”

The National Home Value Index (HVI) reported appraisal values dipped 0.20 percent from February to March. Home values continued to grow annually, rising 3.37 percent year-over-year. This is a slowdown from the growth in February, when appraised values rose 5.47 percent year-over year.

At a regional level, home values followed a similar blueprint – making minuscule monthly moves, and modest annual increases. The least-performing area was the South, with a 1.45 percent dip in appraisal values. The largest month-to-month growth was in the West, where home values increased 0.79 percent. The annual growth ranged from a 2.19 percent year-over-year increase in appraisal values in the West, to a 4.11 percent annual rise the Midwest. These are much more modest increases than we have seen over the last few years, but more in line with inflation and wage growth.

“Some of the rampant buyer demand that we’ve seen over the last few years has subsided because of the affordability issues many areas are having, driven by a lack of availability,” said Banfield. “Would-be buyers have decided to sit on the sidelines to see if more home inventory becomes available at the price-points where they’re shopping. The entire housing industry is watching to see what will happen in the coming months – whether owners and builders will provide the home inventory the buyers have been waiting for, amid the recent drop in interest rates.”

HVIMarch 2019 January 2005 = 100HVIMarch 2019vs.February 2019% ChangeHVIMarch 2019vs.March 2018% ChangeHPPIMarch 2019 Appraiser Value vs. Homeowner Perception of Value*HPPIMarch 2018 Appraiser Value vs. Homeowner Perception of Value*
National Composite111.78-0.20%+3.37%-0.78%-0.50%

*A positive value represents appraiser opinions that are higher than homeowner perceptions. A negative value represents appraiser opinions that are lower than homeowner perceptions.

 Geographic Regions HVIMarch 2019 January 2005 = 100HVIMarch 2019vs.February 2019% ChangeHVIMarch 2019vs.March 2018% ChangeHPPIMarch 2019 Appraiser Value vs. Homeowner Perception of Value*HPPIMarch 2018 Appraiser Value vs. Homeowner Perception of Value*
West136.57+0.79%+2.79%-0.70%-0.16%
South103.01-1.45%+2.31%-0.76%-0.39%
Northeast113.52-0.19%+3.65%-0.78%-0.44%
Midwest91.79+0.68%+4.11%-0.90%-0.43%

*A positive value represents appraiser opinions that are higher than homeowner perceptions. A negative value represents appraiser opinions that are lower than homeowner perceptions.

 MetropolitanAreas HPPIMarch 2019 Appraiser Value vs. Homeowner Perception of Value*HPPIFebruary 2019 Appraiser Value vs. Homeowner Perception of Value*HPPIMarch 2018 Appraiser Value vs. Homeowner Perception of Value*
Boston, MA+2.23%+2.51%+2.40%
Charlotte, NC+2.11%+2.10%+1.22%
Denver, CO+1.58%+1.98%+2.26%
Minneapolis, MN+1.37%+1.50%+1.53%
San Jose, CA+1.27%+1.63%+2.71%
Seattle, WA+1.23%+1.48%+2.20%
Las Vegas, NV+1.16%+1.09%+0.72%
Dallas, TX+0.99%+1.02%+2.61%
Atlanta, GA+0.81%+0.93%+0.06%
San Francisco, CA+0.70%+0.73%+1.99%
San Diego, CA+0.55%+0.67%+1.41%
Phoenix, AZ+0.39%+0.52%+0.40%
Washington, D.C.+0.31%+0.57%+0.46%
Portland, OR+0.30%+0.26%+1.03%
Sacramento, CA+0.28%+0.46%+0.72%
Kansas City, MO+0.24%+0.43%+1.09%
Los Angeles, CA-0.03%+0.06%+0.91%
New York, NY-0.31%-0.37%+0.42%
Riverside, CA-0.32%-0.02%+0.84%
Houston, TX-0.47%-0.48%-0.92%
Tampa, FL-0.59%-0.57%+0.21%
Miami, FL-0.70%-0.46%+0.66%
Detroit, MI-0.88%-0.70%+0.69%
Baltimore, MD-1.08%-1.12%-1.18%
Philadelphia, PA-1.42%-1.38%-1.62%
Cleveland, OH-1.63%-1.53%-1.44%
Chicago, IL-1.94%-1.93%-1.47%

*A positive value represents appraiser opinions that are higher than homeowner perceptions. A negative value represents appraiser opinions that are lower than homeowner perceptions.

About the HPPI & HVI

The Quicken Loans HPPI represents the difference between appraisers’ and homeowners’ opinions of home values. The index compares the estimate that the homeowner supplies on a refinance mortgage application to the appraisal that is performed later in the mortgage process. This is an unprecedented report that gives a never-before-seen analysis of how homeowners are viewing the housing market. The HPPI national composite is determined by analyzing appraisal and homeowner estimates throughout the entire country, including data points from both inside and outside the metro areas specifically called out in the above report.

The Quicken Loans HVI is the only view of home value trends based solely on appraisal data from home purchases and mortgage refinances. This produces a wide data set and is focused on appraisals, one of the most important pieces of information to the mortgage process.

The HPPI and HVI are released on the second Tuesday of every month. Both of the reports are created with Quicken Loans’ propriety mortgage data from the 50-state lenders’ mortgage activity across all 3,000+ counties. The indexes are examined nationally, in four geographic regions and the HPPI is reported for 27 major metropolitan areas. All indexes, along with downloadable tables and graphs can be found at QuickenLoans.com/Indexes.

About Quicken Loans

Detroit-based Quicken Loans Inc. is the nation’s largest home mortgage lender. The company closed nearly half a trillion dollars of mortgage volume across all 50 states from 2013 through 2018. Quicken Loans moved its headquarters to downtown Detroit in 2010. Today, Quicken Loans and its Family of Companies employ more than 17,000 full-time team members in Detroit’s urban core. The company generates loan production from web centers located in Detroit, Cleveland and Phoenix. Quicken Loans also operates a centralized loan processing facility in Detroit, as well as its San Diego-based One Reverse Mortgage unit. Quicken Loans ranked highest in the country for customer satisfaction for primary mortgage origination by J.D. Power for the past nine consecutive years, 2010 – 2018, and also ranked highest in the country for customer satisfaction among all mortgage servicers the past five consecutive years, 2014 – 2018.

Quicken Loans was once again named to FORTUNE magazine’s “100 Best Companies to Work For” list in 2019 and has been included in the magazine’s top 1/3rd of companies named to the list for the past 16 consecutive years. In addition, Essence Magazine named Quicken Loans “#1 Place to Work in the Country for African Americans.”

For more information and company news visit QuickenLoans.com/press-room.

Quicken Loans Study: Less Than Half a Percent Difference Between Owner and Appraiser Opinions of Home Values

– Quicken Loans’ National HPPI shows appraised values 0.45% lower than homeowners estimated in December

– Home values rose 0.79% nationally in December, and posted a 5.15% year-over-year increase, according to the Quicken Loans HVI

Detroit, MI – Jan. 8, 2019 (PRNewswire) The year ended with owner and appraiser perceptions of home values slightly moving in different directions, although the difference remains less than half a percent nationally. Appraisal values were an average of 0.45 percent lower than homeowners expected in December, according to the National Quicken Loans Home Price Perception Index (HPPI). This is compared to November, when there was just a 0.36 difference between the two data points.

Quicken Loans Logo

Despite the dip in perception, appraisal values themselves rose in December at a faster pace than they did in November. The National Quicken Loans Home Value Index (HVI) reported a 0.79 percent monthly increase in the average appraisal value. The national index also showed the average appraisal jumped 5.15 percent year-over-year.

Home Price Perception Index (HPPI)

The HPPI – Quicken Loans’ exclusive measure of homeowners’ opinion of home values – continued to show a small difference between owners’ and appraisers’ opinions on a national level, but the appraisals in the vast majority of metro areas were higher than the owner expected in December. Homeowners in Boston, for example, saw appraisals coming back an average of 2.98 percent higher than what the homeowners expected. Based on the area’s median home value, that is an average of about $15,000 in extra equity the owners don’t realize they had.

“Many consumers don’t think about their home’s value until they start thinking about selling it. They may not be watching their local housing market as closely as appraisers who are reviewing home sales every day – leading the owners to incorrectly estimate their home’s value,” said Bill Banfield, Quicken Loans Executive Vice President of Capital Markets. “The fact of the matter is that the there are many ways a homeowner can make their equity can work for them if they have a realistic estimate of their home’s value. Tapping into home equity to consolidate high-interest debt, or make home improvements are very popular options right now.”

Home Value Index (HVI)

The Quicken Loans HVI, the only measure of home value change based exclusively on appraisal data, reported increasingly rising appraisal values across the country. The National HVI showed that home values rose steadily from November to December, increasing 0.79 percent. The annual growth is even stronger, with the average appraisal rising 5.15 percent over last year’s level. Another sign of the housing market’s health is that all four regions measured by the study reported modest growth on both the monthly and annual measures. The appraisal values ranged from 4.41 percent annual growth in the Northeast to a 5.98 percent year-over-year increase in the West.

“Any consumer who has read recent news about the housing market and has the impression that it is slowing to a halt should see that the HVI proves that this could not be farther from the truth,” said Banfield. “Home value growth is now at a more normal, sustainable clip – keeping pace with inflation and wage growth more than we have seen in the past few years.”

Chart

* A positive value represents appraiser opinions that are higher than homeowner perceptions. A negative value represents appraiser opinions that are lower than homeowner perceptions.

Chart

*A positive value represents appraiser opinions that are higher than homeowner perceptions. A negative value represents appraiser opinions that are lower than homeowner perceptions.

Chart

*A positive value represents appraiser opinions that are higher than homeowner perceptions. A negative value represents appraiser opinions that are lower than homeowner perceptions.

About the HPPI & HVI

The Quicken Loans HPPI represents the difference between appraisers’ and homeowners’ opinions of home values. The index compares the estimate that the homeowner supplies on a refinance mortgage application to the appraisal that is performed later in the mortgage process. This is an unprecedented report that gives a never-before-seen analysis of how homeowners are viewing the housing market. The HPPI national composite is determined by analyzing appraisal and homeowner estimates throughout the entire country, including data points from both inside and outside the metro areas specifically called out in the above report.

The Quicken Loans HVI is the only view of home value trends based solely on appraisal data from home purchases and mortgage refinances. This produces a wide data set and is focused on appraisals, one of the most important pieces of information to the mortgage process.

The HPPI and HVI are released on the second Tuesday of every month. Both of the reports are created with Quicken Loans’ propriety mortgage data from the 50-state lenders’ mortgage activity across all 3,000+ counties. The indexes are examined nationally, in four geographic regions and the HPPI is reported for 27 major metropolitan areas. All indexes, along with downloadable tables and graphs can be found at QuickenLoans.com/Indexes.

About Quicken Loans

Detroit-based Quicken Loans Inc. is the nation’s largest home mortgage lender. The company closed nearly half a trillion dollars of mortgage volume across all 50 states from 2013 through 2018. Quicken Loans moved its headquarters to downtown Detroit in 2010. Today, Quicken Loans and its Family of Companies employ more than 17,000 full-time team members in Detroit’s urban core. The company generates loan production from web centers located in Detroit, Cleveland and Phoenix. Quicken Loans also operates a centralized loan processing facility in Detroit, as well as its San Diego-based One Reverse Mortgage unit. Quicken Loans ranked highest in the country for customer satisfaction for primary mortgage origination by J.D. Power for the past nine consecutive years, 2010 – 2018, and also ranked highest in the country for customer satisfaction among all mortgage servicers the past five consecutive years, 2014 – 2018.

Quicken Loans was once again named to FORTUNE magazine’s “100 Best Companies to Work For” list in 2018 and has been included in the magazine’s top 1/3rd of companies named to the list for the past 15 consecutive years. In addition, Essence Magazine named Quicken Loans “#1 Place to Work in the Country for African Americans.”



Owner Perception of Home Values at Best Level in More Than Three Years

– Quicken Loans’ National HPPI shows appraised values 0.33% lower than homeowners estimated in April

– Home values dipped 0.05% nationally in April, but posted a 6.47% year-over-year increase, according to the Quicken Loans HVI

Detroit, MI – May 8, 2018 (PRNewswire) Home appraisals are more likely be in line with, or even higher than, owners estimate. In April, appraised values were only 0.33 percent lower than what homeowners expected, according to the National Quicken Loans Home Price Perception Index (HPPI). The positive trend is apparent at the local level as well. Only five of the 27 metro areas observed in the HPPI reported appraisals lower than what owners estimated.

Quicken Loans Logo

While they are more in line with what owners expected, home values are continuing their ascent over last year’s level. The National Quicken Loans Home Value Index (HVI) reported a healthy 6.47 percent year-over-year increase, despite near stagnant monthly change, with a 0.05 percent dip in home values since March.

Home Price Perception Index (HPPI)

Homeowners are less likely to get a rude awakening when going through mortgage process. When viewed at a national level, the HPPI shows appraisers’ opinions of home value is an average of 0.33 percent lower than homeowners’ estimates. This is a move closer to equilibrium and the closest the national appraiser and owner opinions have been in more than three years. Homeowner opinions are also improving when viewed locally. Less than 20 percent of the areas measured have appraisal values lower than estimated. San Jose is leading the way with the average appraisal 2.75 percent higher than expected and Chicago is trailing all cities with appraisals an average of 1.68 percent lower than estimated.

“The appraisal is one of the most important, although sometimes least predictable, parts of the mortgage process,” said Bill Banfield, Quicken Loans Executive Vice President of Capital Markets. “The Home Price Perception Index is a way to illustrate the differences of opinion, and these differences affect everything from the type of mortgage a borrower can get to the expectations a seller has about the proceeds available upon sale of their home.”

Chart

Home Value Index (HVI)

The Quicken Loans HVI, the only measurement of home value changes based solely on appraisal data, showed annual growth in the national index, increasing 6.47 percent from this time last year. Monthly changes were more tempered, with the national index dipping 0.05 percent. The national index was pulled into the negative by the Northeast, the only region showing a decrease in home value at a 1.24 percent decline. The Northeast was still the lowest when reviewing annual changes however all regions were positive – ranging from the Northeast’s 2.22 percent growth to the 9.44 percent jump in the West.

“The skyrocketing home values in the West is a trend with no end in sight. Until home building pace picks up, in combination with more existing homes being listed for sale, affordability will continue to wane,” Banfield said. “The other regions of the country are showing annual price gains as well but at a more moderate pace. Time will tell if the slightly higher interest rates in 2018 start to slow demand or if the inventory shortage ends up being a larger contributor to price changes.”

Chart

*A positive value represents appraiser opinions that are higher than homeowner perceptions. A negative value represents appraiser opinions that are lower than homeowner perceptions.

Chart

*A positive value represents appraiser opinions that are higher than homeowner perceptions. A negative value represents appraiser opinions that are lower than homeowner perceptions.

Chart

*A positive value represents appraiser opinions that are higher than homeowner perceptions. A negative value represents appraiser opinions that are lower than homeowner perceptions.

About the HPPI & HVI

The Quicken Loans HPPI represents the difference between appraisers’ and homeowners’ opinions of home values. The index compares the estimate that the homeowner supplies on a refinance mortgage application to the appraisal that is performed later in the mortgage process. This is an unprecedented report that gives a never-before-seen analysis of how homeowners are viewing the housing market. The HPPI national composite is determined by analyzing appraisal and homeowner estimates throughout the entire country, including data points from both inside and outside the metro areas specifically called out in the above report.

The Quicken Loans HVI is the only view of home value trends based solely on appraisal data from home purchases and mortgage refinances. This produces a wide data set and is focused on appraisals, one of the most important pieces of information to the mortgage process.

The HPPI and HVI are released on the second Tuesday of every month. Both of the reports are created with Quicken Loans’ propriety mortgage data from the 50-state lenders’ mortgage activity across all 3,000+ counties. The indexes are examined nationally, in four geographic regions and the HPPI is reported for 27 major metropolitan areas. All indexes, along with downloadable tables and graphs can be found at QuickenLoans.com/Indexes.

About Quicken Loans

Detroit-based Quicken Loans Inc. is the nation’s largest home mortgage lender. The company closed more than $400 billion of mortgage volume across all 50 states from 2013 through 2017. Quicken Loans moved its headquarters to downtown Detroit in 2010. Today, Quicken Loans and its Family of Companies employ more than 17,000 full-time team members in Detroit’s urban core. The company generates loan production from web centers located in Detroit, Cleveland and Phoenix. Quicken Loans also operates a centralized loan processing facility in Detroit, as well as its San Diego-based One Reverse Mortgage unit. Quicken Loans ranked highest in the country for customer satisfaction for primary mortgage origination by J.D. Power for the past eight consecutive years, 2010 – 2017, and also ranked highest in the country for customer satisfaction among all mortgage servicers the past four consecutive years, 2014 – 2017.

Quicken Loans was once again named to FORTUNE magazine’s “100 Best Companies to Work For” list in 2018 and has been included in the magazine’s top 1/3rd of companies named to the list for the past 15 consecutive years. The company was also named the #1 place to work in technology in 2017 by Computerworld magazine’s “100 Best Places to Work in IT,” a recognition it has received 8 times in the past 12 years.