For Least Valuable U.S. Homes, Housing Crisis Recovery Lagging

Homes in the bottom third of the market lost 30 percent of their value during the housing bust and have yet to regain it

– National home values rose 6.9 percent from August 2016, to a Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) of $201,900. Home values in Seattle, Tampa, Fla. and San Jose saw the strongest appreciation.

– Rents across the country are up 1.9 percent year-over-year, to a Zillow Rent Index (ZRI) of $1,430 per month, with rent in Sacramento, Calif. and Seattle appreciating the most.

– The top and bottom thirds of the market in Detroit have seen the most uneven recovery in terms of homes regaining the value lost following the housing crisis.

Seattle, WA – Sept. 21, 2017 (PRNewswire) Median home values are reaching new peaks in more than half of the nation’s largest housing markets, but a closer look at which homes are regaining value reveals an uneven recovery in the biggest markets.

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More than 50 percent of U.S. homes have reached or surpassed the value they reached during the housing boom period, according to the August Zillow® Real Estate Market Report(i), but the types of homes that are recovering are not the same, particularly in the most populated places. In 24 of the nation’s largest 35 markets, the homes in the bottom third of the market are least likely to have recovered the value lost when the housing bubble burst.

Detroit has seen one of the least balanced recoveries following the Great Recession. Nearly two-thirds of the most expensive homes in Detroit have regained the value lost when the market collapsed. The typical top-tier home value in Detroit is $284,800, higher than it was during the housing bubble. In comparison, homes in the bottom third have only regained 33.7 percent of their lost value, and are now worth a median of $53,000. Only 10.6 percent of these homes have fully returned to their peak values.

As homes are often the most expensive asset someone owns, the recovery contributes to the growing wealth gap across the country. Household incomes show a similar pattern of inequality, according to newly released Census data(ii). The median household income across the United States increased in 2016, but those in the top 20 percent of earners took home more than half of the overall income.

“The housing market as a whole is moving at a steady clip, with high demand and low inventory combining to maintain strong home value appreciation,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Svenja Gudell. “Most new construction has been at the higher end of the market, so demand for the limited supply of entry-level homes is pushing up their values, but these homes also lost more value when the bubble burst. Many of these homeowners are still waiting to see their homes come back to where they were about 10 years ago. Even as headline numbers show an overall recovery, there are still thousands of Americans struggling to bounce back from the housing bust.”

The median home value in the U.S. rose 6.9 percent over the last year to a Zillow Home Value Index(iii) of $201,900. Seattle is the only major U.S. market where home values rose at a double-digit annual pace, up 12.4 percent since last August to a median home value of $453,100. Tampa home values rose 9.3 percent, and the median home is worth $187,400.

Annual rent appreciation grew for the fourth consecutive month, with rents increasing 1.9 percent from last August to a Zillow Rent Index(iv) of $1,430.

Limited inventory leaves few options for buyers. Nationally there were 12.6 percent fewer homes available in August 2017 than there were in August 2016. San Jose and San Diego saw the biggest annual declines in inventory, down 59.4 percent and 37.2 percent respectively.

Mortgage rates(v) on Zillow ended August at 3.62 percent, near the lowest level of the month. Rates moved steadily lower throughout the month after starting at a high of 3.72 percent(vi). Zillow’s real-time mortgage rates are based on thousands of custom mortgage quotes submitted daily to anonymous borrowers on the Zillow Mortgages site and reflect the most recent changes in the market.

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Zillow® is the leading real estate and rental marketplace dedicated to empowering consumers with data, inspiration and knowledge around the place they call home, and connecting them with the best local professionals who can help. In addition, Zillow operates an industry-leading economics and analytics bureau led by Zillow’s Chief Economist Dr. Svenja Gudell. Dr. Gudell and her team of economists and data analysts produce extensive housing data and research covering more than 450 markets at Zillow Real Estate Research. Zillow also sponsors the quarterly Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey, which asks more than 100 leading economists, real estate experts and investment and market strategists to predict the path of the Zillow Home Value Index over the next five years. Launched in 2006, Zillow is owned and operated by Zillow Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: Z and ZG), and headquartered in Seattle.

Zillow is a registered trademark of Zillow, Inc.

(i) The Zillow Real Estate Market Reports are a monthly overview of the national and local real estate markets. The reports are compiled by Zillow Real Estate Research. For more information, visit www.zillow.com/research/. The data in Zillow’s Real Estate Market Reports are aggregated from public sources by a number of data providers for 928 metropolitan and micropolitan areas dating back to 1996. Mortgage and home loan data are typically recorded in each county and publicly available through a county recorder’s office. All current monthly data at the national, state, metro, city, ZIP code and neighborhood level can be accessed at www.zillow.com/local-info/ and www.zillow.com/research/data.

(ii) https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2017/demo/p60-259.html

(iii) The Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) is the median estimated home value for a given geographic area on a given day and includes the value of all single-family residences, condominiums and cooperatives, regardless of whether they sold within a given period. It is expressed in dollars, and seasonally adjusted.

(iv) The Zillow Rent Index (ZRI) is the median Rent Zestimate® (estimated monthly rental price) for a given geographic area on a given day, and includes the value of all single-family residences, condominiums, cooperatives and apartments in Zillow’s database, regardless of whether they are currently listed for rent. It is expressed in dollars.

(v) Mortgage rates for a 30-year fixed mortgage

(vi) Monthly high occurred on August 1st

Home Prices Rising Twice As Fast In U.S. Cities With Highest Natural Hazard Risk Than In Lowest-Risk Cities

Homeowners in Highest-Risk Cities Have More Equity, Longer Homeownership Tenures; Appreciation Slower in Florida and Louisiana Cities with Highest Flood Risk, Bucking Trend

Irvine, CA – Sept. 21, 2017 (PRNewswire) ATTOM Data Solutions, curator of the nation’s largest multi-sourced property database, today released its 2017 U.S. Natural Hazard Housing Risk Index, which found that median home prices in U.S. cities in the 80th percentile for natural hazard risk (top 20 percent with highest risk) have increased more than twice as fast over the past five years and over the past 10 years than median home prices in U.S cities in the 20th percentile for natural hazard risk (bottom 20 percent with lowest risk).

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For the report ATTOM indexed natural hazard risk in more than 3,000 counties and more than 22,000 U.S. cities based on the risk of six natural disasters: earthquakes, floods, hail, hurricane storm surge, tornadoes, and wildfires.

Median home prices in cities in the top 20 percent for natural hazard risk have appreciated 65 percent on average over the past five years and 9 percent on average over the past 10 years while median home prices cities in the bottom 20 percent for natural hazard risk have appreciated 32 percent on average over the past five years and 3 percent on average over the past 10 years.

“Strong demand for homes in high-risk natural hazard areas has helped to accelerate price appreciation in those areas over the past decade despite the potential for devastating damage to homes that can be caused by a natural disaster — as evidenced by the recent hurricanes that made landfall in Texas and Florida,” said Daren Blomquist, senior vice president at ATTOM Data Solutions. “That strong demand is driven largely by economic fundamentals, primarily the presence of good-paying jobs, although the natural beauty that often comes hand-in-hand with high natural hazard risk in these areas is also attractive to many homebuyers.”

Appreciation slower in Florida cities with highest flood risk

In the state of Florida, median home prices in cities with the highest flood risk were up 8 percent on average from a year ago and up 66 percent from five years ago while median prices in cities with the lowest flood risk were up 10 percent from a year ago and 70 percent from five years ago.

Median home prices in Florida cities with the highest hurricane storm surge risk were up 8 percent from a year ago and 47 percent from five years ago, while median prices in cities with the lowest hurricane storm surge risk were up 11 percent from a year ago and up 67 percent from five years ago.

Homeowners in highest-risk cities have more equity, longer homeownership tenures

Homeowners in cities in the top 20 percent for natural hazard risk have 32 percent home equity on average compared to 21 percent home equity on average for homeowners in cities in the bottom 20 percent for natural hazard risk.

Seriously underwater homes (LTV of 125 percent or higher) account for 6.4 percent of all homes in cities in the top 20 percent for natural hazard risk compared to a seriously underwater rate of 9.9 percent on average for homes in cities in the bottom 20 percent for natural hazard risk.

Homeowners who sold in the first six months of 2017 had owned for an average of 8.89 years in cities in the top 20 percent for natural hazard risk compared to an average homeownership tenure of 8.03 years in cities in the bottom 20 percent for natural hazard risk.

Counties and cities with highest natural hazard risk

Among the 735 U.S. counties included in the housing trends analysis, those with the highest overall natural hazard index were Oklahoma County, Oklahoma; Wakulla County (Tallahassee), Florida; Monroe County (Key West), Florida; Cleveland County (Oklahoma City), Oklahoma; and Nevada County (Truckee), California.

Among 50 U.S. cities included in the analysis with a population of at least 500,000, those with the highest overall natural hazard housing risk index were Oklahoma City, Oklahoma; San Jose, California; Los Angeles, California; Bakersfield, California; and Seattle, Washington.

View full report & methodology and county heat map.

About ATTOM Data Solutions

ATTOM Data Solutions is the curator of the ATTOM Data Warehouse, a multi-sourced national property database that blends property tax, deed, mortgage, foreclosure, environmental risk, natural hazard, health hazards, neighborhood characteristics and other property characteristic data for more than 150 million U.S. residential and commercial properties. The ATTOM Data Warehouse delivers actionable data to businesses, consumers, government agencies, universities, policymakers and the media in multiple ways, including bulk file licenses, APIs and customized reports.

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