Declining mortgage rates and a double-digit increase in new listings are bringing house hunters off the sidelines, with pending sales posting their smallest decline in about 20 months
Seattle, WA – December 28, 2023 (BUSINESS WIRE) (NASDAQ: RDFN) —U.S. pending home sales have dropped 4% year over year during the four weeks ending December 24, the smallest decline since March 2022, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.
Redfin is taking a break from full analysis this week, but please see the bullet points and charts below for more housing-market data. Redfin will be back with commentary next week.
Leading indicators
| Indicators of homebuying demand and activity | ||||
| Value (if applicable) | Recent change | Year-over-year change | Source | |
| Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate | 6.61% (Dec. 27) | Lowest level since May | Up slightly from 6.50% | Mortgage News Daily |
| Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate | 6.67% (week ending Dec. 21) | Lowest level since June | Up from 6.27% | Freddie Mac |
| Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted) | Down 1% from a week earlier; up 7% from a month earlier (as of week ending Dec. 15, the most recent week for which data is available) | Down 18% | Mortgage Bankers Association | |
| Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted) | Up 6% from a month earlier (as of the week ending Dec. 24) | Down 6% | Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents | |
| Google searches for “home for sale” | Up 8% from a month earlier (as of Dec. 23) | Unchanged | Google Trends | |
Key housing-market data
| U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending December 24, 2023Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision. | |||
| Four weeks ending December 24, 2023 | Year-over-year change | Notes | |
| Median sale price | $364,250 | 4.5% | Biggest increase since Oct. 2022. Prices are up partly because rapidly rising mortgage rates were hampering prices during this time last year. |
| Median asking price | $363,484 | 5.1% | |
| Median monthly mortgage payment | $2,401 at a 6.67% mortgage rate | 7.3% | Down $334 (-12.2%) from all-time high set during the four weeks ending Oct. 22. Lowest level since February. |
| Pending sales | 57,600 | -4% | Smallest decline since March 2022 |
| New listings | 53,243 | 12.2% | Biggest uptick since June 2021. The increase is partly because new listings were falling at this time last year. |
| Active listings | 817,863 | -3.8% | Smallest decline since June |
| Months of supply | 3.6 months | +0.2 pts. | 4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions |
| Share of homes off market in two weeks | 27.4% | Up from 25% | |
| Median days on market | 39 | -2 days | |
| Share of homes sold above list price | 25% | Up from 23% | |
| Share of homes with a price drop | 5% | +0.8 pts. | |
| Average sale-to-list price ratio | 98.5% | +0.5 pts. | |
| Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending December 24, 2023Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy. | |||
| Metros with biggest year-over-year increases | Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases | Notes | |
| Median sale price | Anaheim, CA (18.2%)Newark, NJ (17%)Fort Lauderdale, FL (13.6%)West Palm Beach, FL (13.2%)Miami (12.6%) | Austin, TX (-4%)Fort Worth, TX (-2.2%)San Francisco (-1.1%) | Declined in 3 metros |
| Pending sales | Dallas (8.5%)Milwaukee (8.4%)Austin (5.1%)Orlando, FL (5%)Fort Worth, TX (4.6%) | Providence, RI (-15.2%)Virginia Beach, VA (-10.6%)Jacksonville, FL (-10.2%)West Palm Beach (-10.2%)Tampa, FL (-9.6%) | Increased in 14 metros |
| New listings | Phoenix (31.5%)San Antonio (25.6%)Dallas (21.4%)Washington, D.C. (20.6%)Montgomery County, PA (19.6%) | San Francisco (-25.7%)Indianapolis, IN (-12.8%)Atlanta (-11.5%)Warren, MI (-6.4%)Newark (-3.9%) | Declined in 10 metros |
To view the full report, including charts, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-demand-improving-new-listings-rising
About Redfin
Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We also run the country’s #1 real estate brokerage site. Our home-buying customers see homes first with same day tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home in certain markets can have our renovations crew fix up their home to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Customers who buy and sell with Redfin pay a 1% listing fee, subject to minimums, less than half of what brokerages commonly charge. Since launching in 2006, we’ve saved customers more than $1.5 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000 people.
For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin’s press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com. To view Redfin’s press center, click here.
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20231228850441/en/
Redfin Journalist Services:
Kenneth Applewhaite, 206-414-8880
press@redfin.com
Source: Redfin