• Fifteen percent of California households could afford to purchase the $843,600 median-priced home in the third quarter of 2023, down from 16 percent in second-quarter 2023 and down from 18 percent in third-quarter 2022.
  
• A minimum annual income of $221,200 was needed to make monthly payments of $5,530, including principal, interest and taxes on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at a 7.14 percent interest rate.
  
• Twenty-three percent of home buyers were able to purchase the $650,000 median-priced condo or townhome. A minimum annual income of $170,400 was required to make a monthly payment of $4,260.
  
• Infographic: https://www.car.org/Global/Infographics/HAI-2023-Q3

Los Angeles, CA – Nov. 10, 2023 (PRNewswire) With borrowing costs reaching all-time highs and home prices continuing to climb, California housing affordability dialed back for the second straight quarter and dropped to the lowest level since 2007, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS^® (C.A.R.) said today.

Fewer than one in five (15 percent) home buyers could afford to purchase a median-priced, existing single-family home in California in third-quarter 2023, down from 16 percent in the second quarter of 2023 and down from 18 percent in the third quarter of 2022, according to C.A.R.’s Traditional Housing Affordability Index (HAI). The third-quarter 2023 figure is less than a third of the affordability index peak high of 56 percent in the first quarter of 2012.

C.A.R.’s HAI measures the percentage of all households that can afford to purchase a median-priced, single-family home in California. C.A.R. also reports affordability indices for regions and select counties within the state. The index is considered the most fundamental measure of housing well-being for home buyers in the state.

A minimum annual income of $221,200 was needed to qualify for the purchase of a $843,600 statewide median-priced, existing single-family home in the third quarter of 2023. The monthly payment, including taxes and insurance (PITI) on a 30-year, fixed-rate loan, would be $5,530, assuming a 20 percent down payment and an effective composite interest rate of 7.14 percent.

This marked the first time the effective interest rate jumped above 7 percent in more than two decades. The effective composite interest rate was 6.61 percent in second-quarter 2023 and 5.72 percent in third-quarter 2022. Interest rates appear to have peaked, and further economic slowdown could result in further rate drops before the end of the year. The rate decline should alleviate pressure on both the supply and demand sides of the housing market, which could help improve housing affordability in the coming quarters.

The median price of condominiums and townhomes in California declined from a year ago but was up from the previous quarter. As a result, the share of households that could afford a typical condo/townhome in third-quarter 2023 dipped from the 25 percent recorded in the previous quarter and was down from the 28 percent recorded in the third quarter of 2022. An annual income of $170,400 was required to make the monthly payment of $4,260 on the $650,000 median-priced condo/townhome in the third quarter of 2023.

Compared with California, more than a third of the nation’s households could afford to purchase a $406,900 median-priced home, which required a minimum annual income of $106,800 to make monthly payments of $2,670. Nationwide affordability was down from 39 percent a year ago.

Key points from the third-quarter 2023 Housing Affordability report include:

• When compared to the previous quarter, housing affordability declined in 36 counties and remained unchanged in 10. Only five counties showed a quarter-to-quarter improvement in affordability, thanks to steeper price declines than in other counties during the same time period. Compared to a year ago, six counties saw an improvement in affordability. A greater majority of counties (42) throughout the state recorded a decline in affordability on a year-over-year basis, and only three remained unchanged.
  
• Lassen (58 percent) remained the most affordable county in California and the only county to record an affordability of more than 50 percent in the third quarter of 2023. Tehama (39 percent) and Shasta (35 percent) trailed behind as distant second and third placers and together were the only three counties to record an affordability index of at least 35 percent – all located in the Far North region of the State. Of all counties in California, Lassen required the lowest minimum qualifying income ($55,600) to purchase a median-priced home in third-quarter 2023.
  
• Mono (5 percent), Monterey (9 percent), San Luis Obispo (10 percent), and Santa Barbara (10 percent), were the least affordable counties in California, with each of requiring at least a minimum income of $226,800 to purchase a median-priced home in the county. San Mateo continued to require the highest minimum qualifying income ($516,000) to buy a median-priced home in the third quarter of 2023 and was the only county in California that required a minimum qualifying income over $500,000. Santa Clara County came in second of all counties needing a minimum required income of $484,800, followed by Marin ($416,400).
  
• Housing affordability declined the most on a year-over-year basis in Kings, falling 13 points from third-quarter 2022 to third-quarter 2023. Amador registered the second biggest drop in affordability moving eight points below last year, followed by Kern, Sacramento, and Stanislaus, each dropping six points from a year ago. Despite higher household incomes, higher home prices and elevated mortgage rates continued to be the primary factors that kept the cost of borrowing near its all-time high and affordability near the all-time low across most counties.

See C.A.R.’s historical housing affordability data.
See first-time buyer housing affordability data.

Leading the way…® in California real estate for more than 117 years, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (www.car.org) is one of the largest state trade organizations in the United States with more than 200,000 members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate. C.A.R. is headquartered in Los Angeles.

CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Traditional Housing Affordability Index
Third quarter 2023

 r = revised

Traditional Housing Affordability Indices (HAI) were calculated based on the following effective composite interest rates: 7.14% (3Qtr. 2023), 6.61% (2Qtr. 2023) and 5.72% (3Qtr. 2022).

SOURCE CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.)

• Existing, single-family home sales totaled 240,940 in September on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, down 5.4 percent from August and down 21.5 percent from September 2022.
• September’s statewide median home price was $843,340, down 1.9 percent from August and up 3.2 percent from September 2022.
• Year-to-date statewide home sales were down 28.5 percent in September.

Los Angeles, CA – Oct. 18, 2023 (PRNewswire) Persistently high mortgage rates continue to test California’s housing market as home sales fell for the fourth consecutive month in September, while the median price rose from the year-ago level for the third straight month to record its largest year-over-year gain in more than a year, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS^® (C.A.R.) said today.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 240,940 in September, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR^® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2023 if sales maintained the September pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

September’s sales pace was down 5.4 percent on a monthly basis from 254,740 in August and down 21.5 percent from a year ago, when a revised 307,000 homes were sold on an annualized basis. Sales of existing single-family homes in California remained below the 300,000-unit pace for the 12th month in a row. The monthly decline was the fourth consecutive decrease, and the annual decline was the 27^th straight drop.

With the market being less competitive, there are greater opportunities for consumers who need to purchase a home for personal reasons or those who can qualify to purchase at today’s interest rates,” said C.A.R. President Jennifer Branchini, a Bay Area REALTOR^®. “More sellers are making concessions as homes are taking longer to sell, fewer homes are selling above asking price, and there are more homes to choose from.”

Infographic: https://www.car.org/en/Global/Infographics/2023-09-Sales-and-Price

Home prices rose again from the year-ago level for the third straight month, as the statewide median price recorded its largest year-over-year gain in 15 months. California’s statewide median price dipped 1.9 percent from August’s revised $859,800 to $843,340 in September and rose 3.2 percent from $817,150 a year ago. While September’s median price took a step back from the 15-month high recorded in August, the month-to-month decline was in line with the long-run August-to-September price adjustment of -1.8 percent observed in the last 44 years. Prices are likely to experience monthly declines in the next couple of months, following the traditional seasonal pattern. Positive year-over-year price growth is expected to persist through the remainder of the year as housing supply is expected to remain tight.

“As mortgage rates surge to new highs not seen in more than two decades, home sales are being tested and are likely to remain tepid for the next few months,” said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. “With the Fed planning on holding rates higher for longer, the cost of borrowing will remain elevated and may not come down much in the near term. Housing affordability will continue to hinder sales activity for the rest of the year, especially in the low- and mid-price ranges.”

Other key points from C.A.R.’s September 2023 resale housing report include:

• At the regional level, all major regions experienced a sales decrease in September on a year-over-year basis, with all five major regions dropping more than 20 percent. The San Francisco Bay Area region recorded the biggest annual sales decline at -23.7 percent, followed by the Central Valley (-22.5 percent), the Far North (-22.3 percent), Southern California (-21.7 percent) and the Central Coast (-20.8 percent).
• Forty-six of the 52 counties tracked by C.A.R. registered a sales decline from a year ago in September, with 43 counties dropping more than 10 percent and 28 counties falling more than 20 percent from last year. Home sales in Siskiyou (-52.4 percent) fell the most, followed by Mariposa (-46.7 percent) and Lassen (-39.1 percent). Five counties posted a sales increase from last year, with Mono (50 percent) gaining the most, followed by Sutter (14.5 percent) and Madera (10.3 percent).
• At the regional level, home prices increased from a year ago in all five major regions. The San Francisco Bay Area’s median price (6.6 percent) improved on a year-over-year basis for the second consecutive month and was the region with the biggest annual gain last month. Five out of nine counties within the region recorded an annual gain, with Santa Clara registering the highest growth of 9.0 percent from the prior year. Southern California (4.7 percent), the Central Valley (3.4 percent), Central Coast (3.3 percent) and the Far North region (1.4 percent) also posted mild annual increases.
• Home prices continued to improve in many counties across the state, but 21 counties still registered a year-over-year decline in their median prices in September. Lassen posted the biggest price decline with a drop of -32.6 percent from last September, followed by Lake (-23.4 percent) and Mendocino (-16.3 percent). Twenty-nine counties recorded an annual increase in median price, with Mariposa (26.4 percent) recording the biggest jump in its median price, followed by Calaveras (19.4 percent) and Tulare (14.9 percent).
• Housing supply in California continued to shrink from a year ago in September as mortgage rates remained elevated. The statewide unsold inventory index (UII), which measures the number of months needed to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate, was 2.8 in September 2023. It increased 16.7 percent on a month-over-month basis and was unchanged from last September.
• Active listings at the state level continued to dip on a year-over year basis for five straight months, with the decline in each of the last six months all registering more than 20 percent year-over-year. With rates remaining high and the market transitioning to the low season, active listings will not likely improve much, if at all, before the end of the year.
• Active listings declined in more than two-thirds of all counties from a year ago, with 26 counties dropping more than 10 percent on a year-over-year basis. Contra Costa (-49.5 percent) posted the biggest annual drop in September, followed by Sacramento (-42.5 percent) and Alameda (-41.5 percent). Fifteen counties recorded an annual gain, with Mariposa registering the largest yearly gain of 38.2 percent, followed by Amador (27.3 percent) and Siskiyou (24.0 percent). On a month-to-month basis, 11 counties experienced a drop in active listings in September, while 44 counties followed the seasonal pattern, increasing monthly from August as the market transitioned into the low home buying season.
• The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home was 18 days in September and 27 days in September 2022.
• C.A.R.’s statewide sales-price-to-list-price ratio* was 100 percent in September 2023 and 97.6 percent in September 2022.
• The statewide average price per square foot** for an existing single-family home was $417, up from $401 in September a year ago.
• The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 7.20 percent in September, up from 6.11 percent in September 2022, according to C.A.R.’s calculations based on Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage survey data.

Note:  The County MLS median price and sales data in the tables are generated from a survey of more than 90 associations of REALTORS^® throughout the state and represent statistics of existing single-family detached homes only. County sales data is not adjusted to account for seasonal factors that can influence home sales. Movements in sales prices should not be interpreted as changes in the cost of a standard home. The median price is where half sold for more and half sold for less; medians are more typical than average prices, which are skewed by a relatively small share of transactions at either the lower end or the upper end. Median prices can be influenced by changes in cost, as well as changes in the characteristics and the size of homes sold. The change in median prices should not be construed as actual price changes in specific homes.

*Sales-to-list-price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and home sellers under current market conditions. The ratio is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its original list price and is expressed as a percentage. A sales-to-list ratio with 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, and a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.

**Price per square foot is a measure commonly used by real estate agents and brokers to determine how much a square foot of space a buyer will pay for a property. It is calculated as the sale price of the home divided by the number of finished square feet. C.A.R. currently tracks price-per-square foot statistics for 51 counties.

Leading the way…® in California real estate for more than 110 years, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS^® (www.car.org) is one of the largest state trade organizations in the United States with more than 200,000 members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate. C.A.R. is headquartered in Los Angeles.

SOURCE CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.)