Tag Archives: December

Housing Market Cooldown Continues As Inventory Increases in December

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– Time on Market Grows in Some Large Metros

– Inventory increased 5 percent nationally in December, 10 percent in larger markets

– Overall, 15 percent of listings saw price reductions

– For-sale homes in 40 percent of large markets experienced a longer time on market

– Median listing price in December was $289,000

Santa Clara, CA – Jan. 3, 2019 (PRNewswire) The U.S. housing market showed continuing signs of cooling in many of the nation’s largest metros in December. According to realtor.com®’s December housing report today, the largest markets saw a 10 percent increase in inventory, compared to a nationwide average of 5 percent, as time on market decelerated, listing price growth slowed and price cuts increased.

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Homes sold at a pace of 80 days in December, three days faster than last year. However, this rate is decelerating, as December 2017 saw homes sell six days faster compared to the previous year. On average, typical properties on the list of 45 top metros* spent the same amount of time on the market as the previous year, while 19 markets saw the typical property actually spend more time on the market than last year. Properties in San Jose, Calif., Seattle and Nashville, Tenn., typically spent 14, 10 and six more days on the market this December, respectively. On the flipside, properties sold more quickly than last year in Birmingham, Ala., Milwaukee and Richmond, Va. at 12, 11 and 10 days, respectively.

“Sellers are adjusting their strategies, especially in slowing, pricey markets with growing availability of homes for sale,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist for realtor.com®. “Although buyers may not find a bargain, the price discounts and recently lower borrowing costs may entice upper-tier buyers back into the market. By contrast, entry-level shoppers continue to contend with declining availability of homes for purchase, albeit at a slower rate.”

Nationally, the percentage of listings that saw price reductions increased to 15 percent in December, up from 13 percent a year ago. The increase is being driven by the nation’s largest markets. In fact, 38 of the 45 top markets saw an increase in the share of price reductions. Charlotte, N.C., topped the list with the share of price reductions growing by 10 percent, from 14 percent last year to 24 percent in December. It was followed by San Jose (+10 percent), Tampa (+9 percent), Phoenix (+9 percent) and Seattle (+8 percent).

The median U.S. listing price grew 7 percent year-over-year to $289,000 in December, lower than last year’s increase of 8 percent. Of the 45 top metros reviewed, 32 still saw year-over-year gains in their median listing price, but only 11 markets outpaced the national growth rate of 7 percent. Milwaukee (+14%), Indianapolis (+12%), and Kansas City, Mo. (+12%) are some of the larger markets that posted the highest year-over-year median list price growth.

The steepest declines in median listing prices were felt in San Jose, Calif., and San Francisco, which were down 12 percent and 4 percent, or $130,000 and $33,000, respectively. Austin, Texas, Houston, Dallas, Nashville, Tenn., Charlotte, N.C., and Jacksonville, Fla. also saw declines. However, selling prices in some of these markets are not yet reflecting these declines.

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* Columbus, Ohio, Denver, Las Vegas, Providence-Warwick, R.I., and Sacramento, Calif. were excluded due to data revisions or data unavailability.

About realtor.com®

Realtor.com®, The Home of Home Search℠, offers an extensive inventory of for-sale and rental listings, and access to information, tools and professional expertise that help people move confidently through every step of their home journey. It pioneered the world of digital real estate 20 years ago, and today is the trusted resource for home buyers, sellers and dreamers by making all things home simple, efficient and enjoyable. Realtor.com® is operated by News Corp [Nasdaq: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc. under a perpetual license from the National Association of REALTORS®. For more information, visit realtor.com®.

Contact:

Lexie Puckett-Holbert
lexie.puckettholbert@realtor.com

CoreLogic Reports December Home Prices Up More Than 6 Percent Year-Over-Year for Fifth Consecutive Month

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  • Largest Price Gains During 2017 Were in California, Idaho, Nevada, Utah and Washington
  • Affordability Continues to Erode, Especially in Low-Price Range
  • Home Prices Projected to Increase by 4.3 Percent by December 2018

Irvine, CA – February 6th, 2018 (BUSINESS WIRE) CoreLogic® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released its CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for December 2017, which shows home prices are up both year over year and month over month. Home prices nationally increased year over year by 6.6 percent from December 2016 to December 2017, and on a month-over-month basis home prices increased by 0.5 percent in December 2017 compared with November 2017,* according to the CoreLogic HPI.

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Looking ahead, the CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase by 4.3 percent on a year-over-year basis from December 2017 to December 2018, and on a month-over-month basis home prices are expected to decrease by 0.4 percent from December 2017 to January 2018. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

“The number of homes for sale has remained very low,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Job growth lowered the unemployment rate to 4.1 percent by year’s end, the lowest level in 17 years. Rising income and consumer confidence has increased the number of prospective homebuyers. The net result of rising demand and limited for-sale inventory is a continued appreciation in home prices.”

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According to CoreLogic Market Condition Indicators (MCI) data, an analysis of housing values in the country’s 100 largest metropolitan areas based on housing stock, 35 percent of metropolitan areas have an overvalued housing market as of December 2017. The MCI analysis categorizes home prices in individual markets as undervalued, at value or overvalued by comparing home prices to their long-run, sustainable levels, which are supported by local market fundamentals such as disposable income. Also, as of December, 28 percent of the top 100 metropolitan areas were undervalued and 37 percent were at value. When looking at only the top 50 markets based on housing stock, 48 percent were overvalued, 14 percent were undervalued and 38 percent were at value. The MCI analysis defines an overvalued housing market as one in which home prices are at least 10 percent higher than the long-term, sustainable level, while an undervalued housing market is one in which home prices are at least 10 percent below the sustainable level.

“Home prices continue to rise as a result of aggressive monetary policy, the economic and jobs recovery and a lack of housing stock. The largest price gains during 2017 were in five Western states: California, Idaho, Nevada, Utah and Washington,” said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “As home prices and the cost of originating loans rise, affordability continues to erode, making it more challenging for both first time buyers and moderate-income families to buy. At this point, we estimate that more than one-third of the 100 largest metropolitan areas are overvalued.”

* November 2017 data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results.

Methodology
The CoreLogic HPI™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the “Single-Family Combined” tier representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indexes are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.

CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers—“Single-Family Combined” (both attached and detached) and “Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales.” As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA) and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95-percent statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2.0 percent margin of error for the index.

Source: CoreLogic
The data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient’s publication or broadcast. This data may not be resold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient’s parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact Lori Guyton at lguyton@cvic.com or Bill Campbell at bill@campbelllewis.com. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. The data are compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.

About CoreLogic
CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX) is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider. The company’s combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 4.5 billion records spanning more than 50 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.

CORELOGIC, the CoreLogic logo, CoreLogic HPI, CoreLogic HPI Forecast and HPI are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries.

Contacts

CoreLogic
For real estate industry and trade media:
Bill Campbell
(212) 995-8057
bill@campbelllewis.com

or

For general news media:
Lori Guyton
(901) 277-6066
lguyton@cvic.com

Pending Home Sales Tick Up 0.5 Percent in December

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Washington, D.C. – January 31, 2018 (nar.realtor) Pending home sales were up slightly in December for the third consecutive month, according to the National Association of Realtors®. In 2018, existing-home sales and price growth are forecast to moderate, primarily because of the new tax law’s expected impact in high-cost housing markets.

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The Pending Home Sales Index,* www.nar.realtor/pending-home-sales, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, moved higher 0.5 percent to 110.1 in December from an upwardly revised 109.6 in November. With last month’s modest increase, the index is now 0.5 percent above a year ago.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says pending sales edged up in December and reached their highest level since last March (111.3). “Another month of modest increases in contract activity is evidence that the housing market has a small trace of momentum at the start of 2018,” he said. “Jobs are plentiful, wages are finally climbing and the prospect of higher mortgage rates are perhaps encouraging more aspiring buyers to begin their search now.”

Added Yun, “Sadly, these positive indicators may not lead to a stronger sales pace. Buyers throughout the country continue to be hamstrung by record low supply levels that are pushing up prices — especially at the lower end of the market.”

The uninterrupted supply and demand imbalances throughout the country fueled price appreciation to 5.8 percent in 2017, which was the sixth straight year of gains at or above 5 percent(1). While tight inventories are still expected to put upward pressure on prices in most areas this year, Yun expects overall price growth to shrink, with some states even experiencing a decline, because of the negative effect the changes to the mortgage interest deduction and state and local deductions under the new tax law. To see NAR’s 2018 state forecast for a look at home price projections click here.

Real Estate Infographic

“In the short term, the larger paychecks most households will see from the tax cuts may give prospective buyers the ability to save for a larger down payment this year, and the healthy labor economy and job market will continue to boost demand,” said Yun. “However, there’s no doubt the nation’s most expensive markets with high property taxes are going to be adversely impacted by the tax law.”

Added Yun, “Just how severe is still uncertain, but with homeownership now less incentivized in the tax code, sellers in the upper end of the market may have to adjust their price expectations if they want to trade down or move to less expensive areas. This could in turn lead to both a decrease in sales and home values.”

After expanding 1.1 percent in 2017 to 5.51 million, Yun does anticipate a slight increase (0.5 percent) in existing sales this year (5.54 million). Single-family housing starts are forecast to jump 13.3 percent to 961,000, which will push new home sales up 15.3 percent to 701,000 (608,000 in 2016).

The PHSI in the Northeast dipped 5.1 percent to 93.9 in December, and is now 2.7 percent below a year ago. In the Midwest the index decreased 0.3 percent to 105.0 in December, but is still 0.3 percent higher than December 2016.

Pending home sales in the South grew 2.6 percent to an index of 126.9 in December and are now 4.0 percent higher than last December. The index in the West rose 1.5 percent in December to 101.7, but is still 3.1 percent below a year ago.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

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1. From 2012-2017, the median sales price of existing homes has increased the following amounts: 6.6 percent; 11.4 percent; 5.8 percent; 6.5 percent; 5.1 percent and 5.8 percent.

* The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months.

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined. By coincidence, the volume of existing-home sales in 2001 fell within the range of 5.0 to 5.5 million, which is considered normal for the current U.S. population.

NOTE: NAR’s January Housing Minute video will be shared later today at 2:00 p.m., the metropolitan area price report for the fourth quarter of 2017 will be released February 13, Existing-Home Sales for January will be reported February 21, and the next Pending Home Sales Index will be February 28; all release times are 10:00 a.m. ET.

Media Contact:

Adam DeSanctis
(202) 383-1178
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