NAR forecasts 4.46 million existing-home sales in 2024, a 9% increase from 2023

Key Highlights:

• Pending home sales increased 3.4% in March.
• Month over month, contract signings rose in the Northeast, South and West but dropped in the Midwest.
• Compared to one year ago, pending home sales declined in the Northeast and South while the Midwest and West improved.

Washington, D.C. – April 25, 2024 (nar.realtor) Pending home sales in March climbed 3.4%, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Northeast, South and West posted monthly gains in transactions while the Midwest recorded a loss. Year-over-year, the Northeast and South registered decreases but the Midwest and West improved.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – increased to 78.2 in March. Year over year, pending transactions were up 0.1%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.

“March’s Pending Home Sales Index – at 78.2 – marks the best performance in a year, but it still remains in a fairly narrow range over the last 12 months without a measurable breakout,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Meaningful gains will only occur with declining mortgage rates and rising inventory.”

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Quarterly U.S. Economic Forecast

NAR forecasts that existing-home sales will rise by 9% in 2024 to 4.46 million (from 4.09 million 2023) and another 13.2% in 2025 to 5.05 million (from 2024). Housing starts are expected to rise by 1.2% in 2024 to 1.43 million (from 1.413 million in 2023) and 4.9% to 1.5 million in 2025 (from 2024).

“Home sales have lingered at 30-year lows, and since 70 million more Americans live in the country now compared to three decades ago, it’s inevitable that sales will rise in coming years,” explained Yun. “Inventory will grow steadily from more home construction, and various life-changing events will require people to trade up, trade down or move to another location.”

NAR expects that median home prices will increase by 1.8% in 2024 to a record of $396,800 (from $389,800 in 2023) and another 1.8% in 2025 to $403,800 (from 2024). NAR forecasts a modest reduction – 0.6% – in the median new home price to $426,100 in 2024 (from $428,600 in 2023), reflecting the building of smaller-sized homes. The association anticipates the median new home price will jump 3.4% to $440,500 in 2025 (from 2024).

“Home prices are expected to rise roughly in line with consumer price inflation and wage growth over the next two years,” added Yun. “Most homeowners are on strong financial footing in current market conditions, with only 2% of sales classified as being distressed.”

NAR expects home sales to steadily improve while home prices continue to hit record highs.

“Job gains, steady mortgage rates and the release of inventory from pent-up home sellers will lead to more sales,” explained Yun. “Given the lingering housing shortage, home prices will march higher, albeit much more slowly than in the past.”

Pending Home Sales Regional Breakdown

The Northeast PHSI increased 2.7% from last month to 65.1, a decline of 0.3% from March 2023. The Midwest index fell 4.3% to 78.1 in March, up 1.3% from one year ago.

The South PHSI improved 7.0% to 95.8 in March, dropping 1.5% from the prior year. The West index rose 6.8% in March to 61.0, up 3.6% from March 2023.

 “Home prices rising faster than income growth is not healthy and adds challenges for first-time buyers,” said Yun.

Yun further noted, “Inventory will gradually rise from recent growth in home building. Additionally, many sellers who delayed listing in the past two years will start putting their homes on the market to move to a different home that better fits their new life circumstances – such as changes in family composition, jobs, commuting patterns and retirees wanting to be closer to their grandkids.”

About the National Association of REALTORS®

The National Association of REALTORS® is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.5 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries. The term REALTOR® is a registered collective membership mark that identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS® and subscribes to its strict Code of Ethics.

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*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

Pending contracts are good early indicators of upcoming sales closings. However, the amount of time between pending contracts and completed sales is not identical for all home sales. Variations in the length of the process from pending contract to closed sale can be caused by issues such as buyer difficulties with obtaining mortgage financing, home inspection problems, or appraisal issues.

The index is based on a sample that covers about 40% of multiple listing service data each month. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months.

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined. By coincidence, the volume of existing-home sales in 2001 fell within the range of 5.0 to 5.5 million, which is considered normal for the current U.S. population.

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NOTE: Existing-Home Sales for April will be released May 22. The next Pending Home Sales Index will be released May 30. All release times are 10 a.m. Eastern. View the NAR Statistical News Release Schedule.

Award recipients celebrated for contributions to communities and efforts in promoting homeownership to individuals from all backgrounds

Washington, D.C. – April 3, 2024 (nar.realtor) The National Association of Realtors® and Realtor.com® today honored three winners of the Fair Housing Champion Award during NAR’s Fair Housing Month event, “Many Rivers to Cross: America’s Ongoing Fair Housing Journey.” Honorees received recognition for their efforts to advance fair housing and expand homeownership in their communities.

With the Fair Housing Champion Award, Realtors® are recognized for going above and beyond to support buyers and communities that have faced housing discrimination, advocating for accessible and affordable housing opportunities, and promoting consumer and Realtor® fair housing education. Sponsored by Realtor.com®, the award provides a $5,000 prize that winners can dedicate to a housing-related nonprofit organization of their choice.

“NAR’s mission to promote the growth of prosperous, diverse, and inclusive communities across the United States is more resilient than ever,” stated NAR President Kevin Sears. “Affordability and fair housing remain the most significant challenges confronting the real estate industry today, and I am immensely proud of the dedication displayed by our award recipients in expanding access to homeownership. Their leadership has paved the way for positive change, inspiring others to join in our collective efforts.”

This year’s winners include:

Eve B. Lee, a Lake County, Illinois, community leader, has spent more than 45 years expanding housing opportunities.

Shadrick Bogany, a prominent figure in Houston real estate, advocates for homeownership as a means of empowerment, particularly within marginalized communities.

Paul Yorkis, as president of the Massachusetts Association of Realtors®, successfully advocated for the state government to translate standard real estate forms into languages other than English.

“Having someone to help consumers overcome the barriers of buying a home and advocate for them in the transaction is crucial to opening more doors to the many benefits of homeownership,” said Realtor.com® Chief Marketing Officer Mickey Neuberger. “We are proud to support the professionalism of Realtors® and especially these Fair Housing Champions, who are making a real difference by helping expand housing opportunities in their communities.”

Alexia Smokler, director of NAR’s fair housing policy & programs, welcomed Patrice Ficklin, the founding director of the CFPB’s office of fair lending & equal opportunity, to the fair housing event to discuss the significance of the Equal Credit Opportunity Act (ECOA) on its 50th anniversary. The discussion highlighted ECOA’s role in advancing women’s access to credit and mortgage lending by prohibiting discrimination based on sex and marital status. Before ECOA, women faced significant obstacles in obtaining credit due to discriminatory practices such as requiring male co-signers and devaluing women’s income.

The conversation also delved into the amendments made to ECOA in 1976, expanding protected classes and introducing special-purpose credit programs while addressing contemporary challenges such as digital discrimination and unjust lending restrictions based on criminal history or public assistance income.

Ficklin concluded, “In the past 50 years, we’ve come a long way from women being interrogated by lenders on their family planning and marriage plans to qualify for credit, but the work to ensure fairness and equity is far from over. We cannot solve these problems alone or in a vacuum, but I am hopeful and encouraged by our collective efforts to advance the important yet unfinished work of advancing economic justice.”

NAR’s Vice President of Policy Advocacy, Bryan Greene, welcomed Thomas Sugrue, a preeminent civil rights historian, to discuss the activism preceding the 1964 Civil Rights Act, whose 60th anniversary NAR commemorated at the event. Their discussion emphasized the ongoing struggle against racial discrimination in various aspects of society, such as in the workplace, education, and housing. While the 1964 Civil Rights Act addressed some forms of discrimination, including in public spaces and employment, it notably did not confront issues in the private housing market. That didn’t happen until 1968, with the passage of the Fair Housing Act, seven days after the assassination of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.

Sugrue highlighted that individuals’ housing choices today are still constrained by discrimination and other racial barriers beyond their control. “We often turn a blind eye to it or just assume that housing segregation is a result of individual choice,” he said. “It’s not.” The discussion underscored the need for strengthened enforcement of existing laws, greater awareness of ongoing discrimination, and interventions to address systemic barriers to fair housing access.

The National Association of Realtors® is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.5 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries. The term Realtor® is a registered collective membership mark that identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of Realtors® and subscribes to its strict Code of Ethics.