June 2007 Newsletter

Stephen FellsCEO’s Introduction

On January 8th, 1790, a little more than seven months after taking the oath of office as the first President of the United States, George Washington rode from Cherry Street, New York to Federal Hall. There, in front of Congress, he presented the first President’s Annual Message, now known as the State of the Union Address.

The Constitution defines that responsibility as something the President should do “from time to time”. Thomas Jefferson discontinued the practice of delivering the news in person, as he felt it was too monarchial, and a letter was submitted for many years until 1913 when Woodrow Wilson re-established a return to the spoken form. Today, the State of the Union occurs, with only a few exceptions, every January to start off the year’s political calendar.

The event has gradually been influenced by today’s Hollywood mentality with the news media giving particular significance to the length of the initial applause, the dress worn by the First Lady, and the change in TV ratings. This year, I even noticed respected politicians eagerly holding out their program hoping to get the President’s autograph. As David Rees says “It seems everyone who is ‘anyone’ in Washington, DC is here!”

With this in mind, and noting that the National Association of Realtors currently ranks third in the list of biggest contributors to American politics since 1989 (with an amazing total of over $30 million), it should not surprise anyone that it is prominent in Washington, D.C.

On May 19th, in a presentation to NAR’s directors, Dale Stinton, the association’s CEO, announced that membership dues will increase in 2008 as part of an initiative with a goal of raising between $60 and $100 million over the next three to five years. The money will be used on a variety of projects, including the creation of a technology corporation. They would additionally seek to establish “a funding source for start-up or seed money for new technology companies or products serving the real estate industry.”

If you are the type of person who sees a glass as half full, you might say this will provide the momentum to keep Realtors competitive. It’s what Realtors have been waiting for.

If you see a glass as half empty, you might say too little too late. Every day the Internet savvy population increases, as those born B.T. (Before Technology) leave us and others (like my own children) are born into a world which has always included the Internet. It’s what Realtors should have done a long time ago.

I was most interested in Stinton’s use of the word ‘initiative’—synonyms for initiative include ‘action’, ‘energy’ and ‘drive’. Any technology ‘initiative’ cannot be so called if it is a plan for the next three to five years. The modern world plans on a much shorter basis; five year plans are being replaced by one year plans. With the money being raised in 2008, it means the plan runs through 2013. By then most, if not all, of the technology we use today will be considered archaic.

Sir Isaac Newton said “If I have been able to see farther than others it was because I stood on the shoulders of giants.” If NAR is the giant of Realtors then it needs to avoid following the path of Gulliver. In the Jonathan Swift story, Gulliver is shipwrecked in a land inhabited by six inch people, and ultimately finds himself tied down on the beach by the countless smaller inhabitants. Being bigger, it seems, did not mean he had the upper hand as the smaller, faster moving, and certainly more creative individuals outwitted the giant.

We all enjoy transparency of information in a way never previously considered—let alone experienced, and this is only the beginning. The key to success in technology is speed wrapped in transparency. Ultimately, the market will control how property is sold and will do so using technology that provides the ‘little people’ with what they need. It must be quick and without limits. Buyers and sellers are the market—not Realtors, not the MLS, and not NAR. Everyone else helps them get there.

One question that begs to be asked is “Why now?” Why, a decade after the Internet became as much a part of business as the telephone, does NAR announce a plan to create a technology initiative? The answer might lie in the fact that May was not the best news month for the real estate industry.

On May 8th, the Federal Trade Commission and Department of Justice released a report concluding that real estate brokers, state legislators and state regulators have impeded competition in the real estate industry. An ongoing Justice Department lawsuit against NAR states they are adopting policies that are “fundamentally anti-competitive and harmful to consumers.” NAR obviously disagrees, and the trial is scheduled for next year. It will place a spotlight firmly on the real estate industry at a time when its 2007 bruises may still be visible.

In his May 19th comments, Stinton added that a “superfund” valued between $25 and $100 million was also planned “that we would have as a war chest should Capitol Hill ever decide to attack our core values.” Looking again at moving quickly, this might be needed sooner rather than later.

Mid-month saw a segment on CBS’s 60 Minutes called “Hi-Tech Real Estate Moves In”

The segment’s focus was “Realtors’ sacrosanct commission rates of 6 percent may be in danger due to emerging online competition from Internet real estate sellers and buyers.“ Online commentary has been rampant, but not everyone took it so seriously. If your glass is full of beer, then you might enjoy the Point2 spoof of the same segment called “16 Minutes”.

Towards the end of the month, news was released about a NAR advisory group moving ahead with plans for a national real estate database—essentially a national MLS. Stinton states “Imagine a world where a national repository of real estate information on every parcel of property in this country is cataloged, that is contributed to and enriched on a daily basis to make it the number one real estate go-to site in the world for property information. Now imagine us not doing it. Imagine somebody else doing it.” He noted that many other companies, including companies from outside the industry, “are working on it as we speak. They will get there. This isn’t a matter of how, it’s a matter of when.” It’s a good sign that speed to market is something NAR is aware of. Making it actually happen before Google, Trulia, Zillow et al is the next bit.

The NAR State of the Union is to be found in their annual report. It contains a lot of what you would expect, including a letter from the president, core purpose and principals, benefits of membership and financial highlights. The 2007 annual report will make for an interesting read, not quite Jackie Collins, but certainly worth a look. Real estate is becoming ever so more political.

With all of this news, is it a time to be optimistic or pessimistic? Pardon my blatant cannibalization of a scene from The Matrix; Do not try to see the glass. That’s impossible. Instead only try to realize the truth. There is no glass. Then you’ll see that it is not the glass that is half empty or half full, it is only yourself.

As always feel free to contact me personally, at any time, for any reason.

Stephen Fells,
CEO

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2 thoughts on “June 2007 Newsletter

  1. Very good article. I agree with most of your comments.

    As always we REALTORS have always been our worst enemy. We are a fragmented bunch unless someone else tells us we need to mobilize behind something that is usually 6 months or 2 years late. We made a big mistake with REALTOR.COM and I feel that NAR and most state associations are more interested in keeping the membership numbers up rather than “leading” us into the future.

    Thanks,

    Walter Compton

  2. Bravo! I am in my 33rd year of paying the NAR dues. They have always been a day late but a dollar ahead! They wasted millions on a worthless technology companythat went busted.Now they spending millions more on their less than state of the art technology. They like to put “old timers” at the helm of these companies instead of hiring those with the latest most forward thinking techno savvy! They should send the entire NAR Board to INMAN Connect in SF so they could get an idea of where the industry has been without them, and where it is going, without them!
    Mark Eskanos
    Denver, Colorado

    Oh by the way…I love your product. Just sold a $800K listing of ours because of http://www.395birch.com! Thanks

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