A record 29% of Redfin.com users looked to move to a different metro area in the third quarter
Seattle, WA – Oct. 30, 2020 (PRNewswire) (NASDAQ: RDFN) — Santa Barbara has grown the most in popularity with people moving in from out of town over the last year, followed by Louisville, KY and Buffalo, NY, according to a new report from Redfin (www.redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.
Net inflow—the number of people looking to move in minus the number of people looking to leave—to Santa Barbara increased by 124% over the last year. In Louisville, net inflow increased by 113% and in Buffalo it increased by 107%. To determine the places that have grown the most in popularity for migrants, Redfin calculated the increases by analyzing the percent changes in net inflow in the third quarter of 2020 versus the third quarter of 2019, relative to the net inflow in the third quarter of 2020. Significantly more Redfin.com users looked to move into all three places than leave in the third quarter of 2020, while more Redfin.com users looked to leave than move in during the third quarter of 2019.
“Remote work has opened up a whole new world of possibilities when it comes to buying a home,” said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather. “Many residents of expensive areas like New York or Los Angeles couldn’t manage to afford rent and save for a home at the same time. So it’s no wonder that these folks are looking to buy homes in much more affordable places like Louisville and Little Rock.”
The increasing popularity of Louisville, Buffalo and most of the other destinations on the top 10 list like El Paso and Tulsa is likely due in part to their affordability. But Santa Barbara is an expensive outlier. The typical home in the metro sold for $855,000 in September, well above the $730,000 median in Los Angeles, located about 90 miles south of Santa Barbara and the number one origin for people moving there.
“Homebuyers are moving into Santa Barbara and its surrounding beach towns from Los Angeles and San Francisco,” said local Redfin agent John Burdick. “Santa Barbara has become even more popular since the beginning of the pandemic as remote workers leave dense cities for picturesque places with more open spaces and beaches. Another advantage is that it’s not too far from Los Angeles, so remote workers have the option of commuting one or two days a week when offices open.”
Excluding Santa Barbara, all the metros that have grown the most in popularity with out-of-towners are relatively affordable, with median home prices below the national median of $334,000. The typical home in Louisville sold for $229,000 in September, and in Buffalo it was $190,000. Six of the top 10 are located in the South, and two are in the state of New York.
Los Angeles and New York are the number one places Redfin.com users are leaving as they move to the areas growing most in popularity. Los Angeles is not only the number one origin for people looking at homes in the Santa Barbara metro, but it’s also the top origin for people looking in El Paso, Little Rock and Tulsa. New York City metro is the top origin for people looking in Buffalo and Syracuse, plus Louisville and Greenville, SC. Statewide, both California and New York have seen significant upticks in the number of people looking to leave over the last year, more than any other state.
Louisville Redfin agent Danielle Field said the area has experienced an uptick in people moving in from all around the country, including California, New York, Chicago, Atlanta, Nashville, Phoenix, Austin, Seattle, and Florida.
| Metro areas with biggest increases in net inflow, Q3 2019 – Q3 2020 | ||||||
| Metro area | Net flow (people looking to move in versus people looking to leave): Q3 2019 | Net flow (people looking to move in versus people looking to leave): Q3 2020 | Percent change in net flow* | Portion of searches from users outside the metro: Q3 2020 | Most popular origin | Median home price (September 2020) |
| Santa Barbara, CA | -93 | 382 | 124% | 70.8% | Los Angeles, CA | $855,000 |
| Louisville, KY | -33 | 249 | 113% | 42.1% | New York, NY | $229,000 |
| Buffalo, NY | -37 | 555 | 107% | 34.4% | New York, NY | $190,000 |
| Burlington, VT | -6 | 185 | 103% | 59.2% | Boston, MA | $330,000 |
| El Paso, TX | -1 | 180 | 101% | 49.9% | Los Angeles | $183,000 |
| Little Rock, AR | 23 | 131 | 82% | 30.1% | Los Angeles, CA | $181,000 |
| Tulsa, OK | 41 | 209 | 80% | 35.3% | Los Angeles, CA | $210,000 |
| Greenville, SC | 185 | 899 | 79% | 45.8% | New York, NY | $236,000 |
| Knoxville, TN | 147 | 590 | 75% | 58.4% | Chicago, IL | $246,000 |
| Syracuse, NY | 43 | 165 | 74% | 46.0% | New York, NY | $169,000 |
| *Percent change = (Value in Q3 2020 – Value in Q3 2019) / (Value in Q3 2020) |
A Record Share of Redfin.com Users Are Relocating to a Different Metro Area, With Sacramento, Austin and Las Vegas as the Most Popular Destinations
A record 29.2% of Redfin.com users looked to move to another metro area in the third quarter, the highest share since Redfin started tracking migration in the beginning of 2017. That’s up from 26.4% in the third quarter of 2019 and 27.4% in the second quarter of this year. The uptick is partly due to the pandemic and the newfound work-from-home culture.
Sacramento was the most popular destination for homebuyers looking to move to a different metro area, with the biggest net inflow of Redfin.com users in the third quarter.
It’s followed by Austin, Las Vegas, Phoenix and Atlanta, all relatively affordable areas that are perennially popular for people moving to different metros.
| Top 10 Metros by Net Inflow of Users and Their Top Origins | |||||||
| Rank | Metro* | Net Inflow† | Net Inflow LY | Portion of Searches from Users Outside the Metro: Q3 2020 | Portion of Searches from Users Outside the Metro: Q3 2019 | Top Origin | Top Out-of-State Origin |
| 1 | Sacramento, CA | 11,837 | 7,025 | 50.1% | 43.5% | San Francisco, CA | Reno, NV |
| 2 | Austin, TX | 8,599 | 4,782 | 38.4% | 32.0% | San Francisco, CA | San Francisco, CA |
| 3 | Las Vegas, NV | 8,465 | 5,947 | 49.0% | 44.8% | Los Angeles, CA | Los Angeles, CA |
| 4 | Phoenix, AZ | 8,339 | 6,147 | 34.3% | 31.6% | Los Angeles, CA | Los Angeles, CA |
| 5 | Atlanta, GA | 7,236 | 5,884 | 26.0% | 26.5% | New York, NY | New York, NY |
| 6 | Dallas, TX | 6,620 | 3,456 | 29.5% | 23.5% | Los Angeles, CA | Los Angeles, CA |
| 7 | Nashville, TN | 4,990 | 2,188 | 37.8% | 28.8% | New York, NY | New York, NY |
| 8 | Tampa, FL | 4,896 | 3,184 | 55.3% | 52.6% | Orlando, FL | New York, NY |
| 9 | Charlotte, NC | 4,071 | 2,880 | 39.6% | 40.1% | New York, NY | New York, NY |
| 10 | Miami, FL | 3,889 | 2,357 | 25.9% | 24.4% | New York, NY | New York, NY |
| *Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users in Q3 2020†Negative values indicate a net outflow; among the one million users sampled for this analysis only |
People Are Looking to Leave New York, San Francisco and Los Angeles
More Redfin.com users looked to leave New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Washington, D.C., and Chicago than any other metro. Expensive urban cities typically top the list of places people are looking to leave.
In San Francisco, nearly 25% of local Redfin.com users searched for homes outside their home metro in the third quarter, up from roughly 21% during the same time period last year. The jump is likely due in part to the rise of remote work, particularly for tech employees, that began in the spring when the pandemic hit.
| Top 10 Metros by Net Outflow of Users and Their Top Destinations | |||||||
| Rank | Metro* | Net Outflow† | Net Outflow LY | Portion of Local Users Searching Elsewhere: Q3 2020 | Portion of Local Users Searching Elsewhere: Q3 2019 | Top Destination | Top Out-of-State Destination |
| 1 | New York, NY | 48,175 | 35,246.0 | 35.8% | 39.4% | Boston, MA | Boston, MA |
| 2 | San Francisco, CA | 43,592 | 27,152.0 | 24.8% | 20.7% | Sacramento, CA | Seattle, WA |
| 3 | Los Angeles, CA | 23,727 | 17,235.0 | 17.3% | 16.1% | San Diego, CA | Las Vegas, NV |
| 4 | Washington, DC | 14,180 | 8,573.0 | 13.6% | 11.5% | Salisbury, MD | Salisbury, MD |
| 5 | Chicago, IL | 6,257 | 4,012.0 | 12.0% | 10.2% | South Bend, IN | South Bend, IN |
| 6 | Denver, CO | 5,825 | 3,232.0 | 26.9% | 23.0% | Seattle, WA | Seattle, WA |
| 7 | Seattle, WA | 4,190 | 1,242.0 | 13.9% | 11.2% | Bellingham, WA | Los Angeles, CA |
| 8 | Milwaukee, WI | 2,595 | 1,234.0 | 37.7% | 39.3% | Chicago, IL | Chicago, IL |
| 9 | Indianapolis, IN | 1,630 | 331.0 | 35.8% | 28.2% | Chicago, IL | Chicago, IL |
| 10 | Rockford, IL | 1,044 | 407.0 | 86.4% | 80.7% | Chicago, IL | Madison, WI |
| *Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users in Q3 2020†Among the one million users sampled for this analysis only |
To read the full report, including methodology and additional insight from local Redfin agents, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/Q3-2020-housing-migration-trends.
About Redfin
Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered residential real estate company, redefining real estate in the consumer’s favor in a commission-driven industry. We do this by integrating every step of the home buying and selling process and pairing our own agents with our own technology, creating a service that is faster, better and costs less. We offer brokerage, iBuying, mortgage, and title services, and we also run the country’s #1 real estate brokerage search site, offering a host of online tools to consumers, including the Redfin Estimate. We represent people buying and selling homes in over 90 markets in the United States and Canada. Since our launch in 2006, we have saved our customers over $800 million and we’ve helped them buy or sell more than 235,000 homes worth more than $115 billion.
For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin’s press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com. To view Redfin’s press center, click here.
SOURCE Redfin
