Daily Archives: June 11, 2019

Americans’ Confidence in Housing Nears Survey High, Despite Moderating Optimism About Wage Growth and Job Security

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Uptick in Sentiment Driven by Jump in “Good Time to Buy” Component

Washington, D.C. – June 7, 2019 (PRNewswire) The Fannie Mae (OTCQB: FNMA) Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI)increased 3.7 points in May to 92.0, just shy of the survey high set last May. A 13-percentage point increase in the “Good Time to Buy” component drove the index higher. The net share of respondents expecting home prices to go up and mortgage rates to go down over the next 12 months also increased by 5 and 3 percentage points, respectively.

“Another sharp rebound in the ‘Good Time to Buy’ component lifted the HPSI nearer its survey high set during last year’s homebuying season, though several uncertainties remain,” said Doug Duncan, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist at Fannie Mae. “While consumers’ more favorable mortgage rate outlook suggests continued support for housing affordability, potential homebuyers still face supply constraints. Additionally, while the survey recently resumed its upward trend, consumers’ sense of income growth and job security have moved lower from the highs established earlier in the year, which, if sustained, could weigh on the housing market in the second half of the year.”

HOME PURCHASE SENTIMENT INDEX – COMPONENT HIGHLIGHTS

Fannie Mae’s 2019 Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) increased in May by 3.7 points to 92.0. The HPSI is down 0.3 points compared to the same time last year.

  • The net share of Americans who say it is a good time to buy a home increased 13 percentage points to 27%. This component is down 1 percentage point from the same time last year.
  • The net share of those who say it is a good time to sell a home remained unchanged at 43%. This component is down 3 percentage points from the same time last year.
  • The net share of those who say home prices will go up over the next 12 months increased 5 percentage points to 41%. This component is down 8 percentage points from the same time last year.
  • The net share of Americans who say mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months increased 3 percentage points to -37%. This component is up 12 percentage points from the same time last year.
  • The net share of Americans who say they are not concerned about losing their job over the next 12 months increased 2 percentage points to 76%. This component is down 2 percentage points from the same time last year.
  • The net share of those who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago decreased 1 percentage point to 21%. This component is unchanged from the same time last year.

ABOUT FANNIE MAE’S HOME PURCHASE SENTIMENT INDEX

The Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) distills information about consumers’ home purchase sentiment from Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey® (NHS) into a single number. The HPSI reflects consumers’ current views and forward-looking expectations of housing market conditions and complements existing data sources to inform housing-related analysis and decision making. The HPSI is constructed from answers to six NHS questions that solicit consumers’ evaluations of housing market conditions and address topics that are related to their home purchase decisions. The questions ask consumers whether they think that it is a good or bad time to buy or to sell a house, what direction they expect home prices and mortgage interest rates to move, how concerned they are about losing their jobs, and whether their incomes are higher than they were a year earlier.

ABOUT FANNIE MAE’S NATIONAL HOUSING SURVEY

The most detailed consumer attitudinal survey of its kind, Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey (NHS) polled approximately 1,000 Americans via live telephone interview to assess their attitudes toward owning and renting a home, home and rental price changes, homeownership distress, the economy, household finances, and overall consumer confidence. Homeowners and renters are asked more than 100 questions used to track attitudinal shifts, six of which are used to construct the HPSI (findings are compared with the same survey conducted monthly beginning June 2010). As cell phones have become common and many households no longer have landline phones, the NHS contacts 70 percent of respondents via their cell phones (as of January 2018). For more information, please see the Technical Notes. Fannie Mae conducts this survey and shares monthly and quarterly results so that we may help industry partners and market participants target our collective efforts to stabilize the housing market in the near-term, and provide support in the future. The May 2019 National Housing Survey was conducted between May 1, 2019 and May 22, 2019. Most of the data collection occurred during the first two weeks of this period. Interviews were conducted by PSB, in coordination with Fannie Mae.

DETAILED HPSI & NHS FINDINGS

For detailed findings from the May 2019 Home Purchase Sentiment Index and National Housing Survey, as well as a brief HPSI overview and detailed white paper, technical notes on the NHS methodology, and questions asked of respondents associated with each monthly indicator, please visit the Surveys page on fanniemae.com. Also available on the site are in-depth special topic studies, which provide a detailed assessment of combined data results from three monthly studies of NHS results.

To receive e-mail updates with other housing market research from Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research Group, please click here.

Fannie Mae helps make the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and affordable rental housing possible for millions of Americans. We partner with lenders to create housing opportunities for families across the country. We are driving positive changes in housing finance to make the home buying process easier, while reducing costs and risk. To learn more, visit fanniemae.com and follow us on twitter.com/fanniemae.

U.S. Home Flipping Rate Reaches A Nine-Year High In Q1 2019

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Total Dollar Volume of Homes Flipped With Financing Reaches 6.4 Billion – A 12-Year High; Average Flipping ROI Continues to Decline to An Almost Eight-Year Low; While Gross Flipping Profits Drop 12 Percent From Last Year

Irvine, CA – June 6, 2019 (PRNewswire) ATTOM Data Solutions, curator of the nation’s premier property database and first property data provider of Data-as-a-Service (DaaS), today released its Q1 2019 U.S. Home Flipping Report, which shows that 49,059 U.S. single family homes and condos were flipped in the first quarter of 2019, down 2 percent from the previous quarter and down 8 percent from a year ago to a three-year low.

The 49,059 homes flipped in the first quarter represented 7.2 percent of all home sales during the quarter, up from 5.9 percent in the previous quarter and up from 6.7 percent a year ago — the highest home flipping rate since Q1 2010.

Homes flipped in Q1 2019 sold at an average gross profit of $60,000, down from an average gross flipping profit of $62,000 in the previous quarter and down from $68,000 in Q1 2018 to the lowest average gross flipping profit since Q1 2016.

The average gross flipping profit of $60,000 in Q1 2019 translated into an average 38.7 percent return on investment compared to the original acquisition price, down from a 42.5 percent average gross flipping ROI in Q4 2018 and down from an average gross flipping ROI of 48.6 percent in Q1 2018 to the lowest level since Q3 2011 — a nearly eight-year low.

“With interest rates dropping and home price increases starting to ease, investors may be getting out while the getting is good, before the market softens further,” said Todd Teta, chief product officer at ATTOM Data Solutions. “While the home flipping rate is increasing, gross profits and ROI are starting to weaken and the number of investors that are flipping is down 11 percent from last year. Therefore, if investors are seeing profit margins drop, they may be acting now and selling before price increases drop even more.”

Home flipping rate up from year ago in 62 percent of local markets
Eighty-five of 138 metropolitan statistical analyzed in the report (62 percent) posted a year-over-year increase in their home flipping rate in Q1 2019, including Columbus, Georgia (up 83 percent); Raleigh, North Carolina (up 73 percent); Charlotte, North Carolina (up 65 percent); McAllen-Edinburg, Texas (up 55 percent); and Milwaukee, Wisconsin (up 49 percent).

Along with Raleigh, Charlotte, and Milwaukee, other metro areas with a population of at least 1 million and a home flipping rate increasing in the double digits were San Antonio, Texas (up 47 percent); Houston, Texas (up 41 percent); Atlanta, Georgia (up 38 percent); Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (up 36 percent); and Minneapolis, Minnesota (up 33 percent).

The number of homes flipped reached new peaks in Q1 2019 for Raleigh, North Carolina and San Antonio, Texas in the first quarter of 2019.

Home flip lending volume up 35 percent to 12-year high
The total dollar volume of financed home flip purchases was $6.4 billion for homes flipped in the first quarter of 2019, up 35 percent from $4.7 billion in Q1 2018 to the highest level since Q2 2007 — over a 12-year high.

Flipped homes originally purchased by the investor with financing represented 37.5 percent of homes flipped in Q1 2019, down from 39.5 percent in the previous quarter and down from 41.2 percent a year ago.

Among 53 metropolitan statistical areas analyzed in the report with at least 1 million people, those with the highest percentage of Q1 2019 completed flips purchased with financing were San Diego, California (56.0 percent); Seattle, Washington (52.5 percent); San Francisco, California (51.7 percent); Denver, Colorado (51.6 percent); and Boston, Massachusetts (51.3 percent).

11 Markets where investors are doubling their ROI
Among the 138 metropolitan statistical areas analyzed in the report with at least 50 home flips completed in Q1 2019, those with the highest average gross flipping ROI were Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (131.2 percent); Flint, Michigan (127.6 percent); Shreveport, Louisiana (112.5 percent); Scranton, Pennsylvania (112.0 percent); and Knoxville, Tennessee (105.0 percent).

Along with Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania metro areas with a population of at least 1 million and an average gross flipping ROI of at least 79 percent were Cleveland, Ohio (100.0 percent); Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (100.0 percent); Buffalo, New York (89.7 percent); and Memphis, Tennessee (79.2 percent).

Average home flipping returns continue to slip
Homes flipped in the first quarter of 2019 were sold for a median price of $215,000, a gross flipping profit of $60,000above the median purchase price of $155,000, down from a gross flipping profit of $62,000 in the previous quarter and a gross flipping profit of $68,000 in Q1 2018 — to the lowest levels since Q1 2016.

Of those 138 markets with at least 50 or more flips and a population greater than 200,000 in the first quarter of 2019, those that saw the lowest gross flipping profit were McAllen-Edinburg, Texas (profit of $8,752); Daphne, Alabama (profit of $15,761); Boise City, Idaho (profit of $18,332); Lexington, Kentucky (profit of $20,000); and San Antonio, Texas (profit of $23,596).

Average time to flip nationwide at 180 days
Homes flipped in Q1 2019 took an average of 180 days to complete the flip, up from an average 175 days for homes flipped in Q4 2018 but down from 182 days a year ago.

Among the 138 metro areas analyzed in the report, those with the shortest average days to flip were McAllen-Edinburg, Texas (127 days); Memphis, Tennessee (136 days); Raleigh, North Carolina (142 days); Mobile, Alabama (144 days); and Phoenix, Arizona (151 days).

Metro areas with the longest average days to flip were Naples, Florida (235 days); Bridgeport, Connecticut (230 days); New Haven, Connecticut (225 days); Provo, Utah (219 days); and Hartford, Connecticut (219 days).

Flipped homes sold to FHA buyers increases from previous quarter
Of the 49,059 U.S. homes flipped in Q1 2019, 14.2 percent were sold by the flipper to a buyer using a loan backed by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), up from 13.2 percent in the previous quarter but down from 15.2 percent a year ago.

Among the 138 metro areas analyzed in the report, those with the highest percentage of Q1 2019 home flips sold to FHA buyers — typically first-time homebuyers — were Worcester, Massachusetts (30.0 percent); Shreveport, Louisiana (29.0 percent); Modesto, California (27.3 percent); Hartford, Connecticut (27.2 percent); and Springfield, Massachusetts (27.0 percent).

Eight zip codes with a home flipping rate of more than 30 percent
Among 1,433 U.S. zip codes with at least 10 home flips in Q1 2019, there were eight zip codes where home flips accounted for more than 30 percent of all home sales, here are the top five: 93212 in Kings county, California (48.0 percent); 11433 in Queens county, New York (35.7 percent); 33147 Miami-Dade county, Florida (32.7 percent); 38115 in Shelby county, Tennessee (32.4 percent); and 92802 in Orange county, California (32.1 percent).

Report methodology
ATTOM Data Solutions analyzed sales deed data for this report. A single-family home or condo flip was any arms-length transaction that occurred in the quarter where a previous arms-length transaction on the same property had occurred within the last 12 months. The average gross flipping profit is the difference between the purchase price and the flipped price (not including rehab costs and other expenses incurred, which flipping veterans estimate typically run between 20 percent and 33 percent of the property’s after repair value). Gross flipping return on investment was calculated by dividing the gross flipping profit by the first sale (purchase) price.

About ATTOM Data Solutions
ATTOM Data Solutions provides premium property data to power products that improve transparency, innovation, efficiency and disruption in a data-driven economy. ATTOM multi-sources property tax, deed, mortgage, foreclosure, environmental risk, natural hazard, and neighborhood data for more than 155 million U.S. residential and commercial properties covering 99 percent of the nation’s population. A rigorous data management process involving more than 20 steps validates, standardizes and enhances the data collected by ATTOM, assigning each property record with a persistent, unique ID — the ATTOM ID. The 9TB ATTOM Data Warehouse fuels innovation in many industries including mortgage, real estate, insurance, marketing, government and more through flexible data delivery solutions that include bulk file licenses, APIs, market trends, marketing lists, match & append and introducing the first property data deliver solution, a cloud-based data platform that streamlines data management – Data-as-a-Service (DaaS).

Media Contact:
Jennifer von Pohlmann
949.412.3897 
Jennifer.vonpohlmann@attomdata.com

Data and Report Licensing:
949.502.8313 
datareports@attomdata.com

Homes Becoming More Affordable Despite Rising Prices

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National median listing price sets new record at $315,000; 74 of nation’s 100 largest metros become more affordable than last year

Santa Clara, CA – June 6, 2019 (PRNewswire) Nearly three-quarters of the 100 largest U.S. metros — including some of the priciest like San Jose, Calif., and San Francisco — are more affordable than this time last year, despite a continued upward swing in median home prices, according to two new research reports released today by realtor.com®.

The trends are based on realtor.com® ‘s May 2019 monthly housing trend report and REALTORS and realtor.com Affordability Distribution Curve and Score Report, which showed increasing inventory, rising wages, and declining mortgage rates have offset slowing price increases in some local areas, making a larger share of homes affordable to buyers — especially in the mid-to upper-tier price range.

Realtor.com® May data shows the U.S. median listing price continued its upward hike, increasing 6 percent year-over-year to $315,000 — a new record high. However, the 6 percent year-over-year increase in the median listing price was the slowest pace of growth since April 2015. National inventory grew by 3 percent, and homes typically spent 53 days on the market– one day less than last May.

The most dramatic change in the U.S. housing market landscape is affordability, which realtor.com® defines as the share of for-sale homes a buyer is able to afford in their market at their income. Driven by inventory growth and lower mortgage rates, 74 out of the nation’s 100 largest metros became more affordable in April 2019 compared to the previous year. This trend is a rapid acceleration from last month when only 44 metros were more affordable than the previous year.

“Lower mortgage rates, higher wages and more homes for sale have helped counteract rising home prices, and ultimately, made it so that buyers are able to afford more than last year,” said Danielle Hale, realtor.com® ‘s chief economist. “However, the boost in affordability has yet to translate into more home sales perhaps because–while the shift in trend is welcome, the current monthly savings are small and some buyers may be waiting for markets to tip further in their favor.”

Compared to national trends, the 10 markets with the greatest increases in affordability were San Jose, Calif.; Des Moines, Iowa; San Francisco; Lakeland, Fla.; Atlanta; Portland, Ore.; Cape Coral, Fla.; Austin, Texas; and Dallas. These markets are distinguished by rising incomes, decreasing listing prices, and a significant increase in available homes for sale. On average, incomes grew an estimated 6 percent year-over-year, compared to the 3.5 percent increase the top 100 largest metros saw. At the same time, median home listing prices fell an average of 2 percent, and inventory increased an average of 26 percent. This compared to 4.4 percent price and 6.5 percent inventory growth in the top 100 metros.

Hale added, “Despite the encouraging trends, entry-level buyers will likely continue to struggle to find homes in their price range as the majority of the inventory gains continue to be in mid-to upper-tier homes in more expensive markets.”

In April, the number of homes priced above $750,000 — more than double the national median — increased 11 percent year-over-year, while the number homes priced below $200,000 decreased by 8 percent year-over-year. Similarly, increases in affordability are predominantly focused in pricier markets, especially along the West Coast. For example, San Jose, one of the nation’s most expensive metros, saw the greatest boost in affordability, but it was principally driven by improvements for 80th and 90th percentile income earners. Meaning, San Jose became more affordable compared to this time last year, but the majority of affordability increases were only felt by the area’s top income earners. 

For more information, please visit: https://www.realtor.com/research/may-2019-data

Metros With Greatest Increases in Affordability

MetroApril Affordability 
Score		YoY Affordability 
Score		May Median Listing 
Price		May Median Days 
on Market
San Jose-Sunnyvale et al, Calif.0.50.11$1,167,44428
Des Moines-West Des Moines, Iowa0.940.11$288,00059
San Francisco-Oakland et al, Calif.0.540.09$954,50028
Lakeland-Winter Haven, Fla.0.820.08$231,50064
Atlanta-Sandy Springs et al, Ga.0.80.07$335,00047
Portland-Vancouver et al, Ore.-Wash.0.590.07$474,97534
Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla.0.690.07$299,90091
Austin-Round Rock, Texas0.70.07$369,99546
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas0.680.06$350,00043
Charlotte-Concord et al, N.C.-S.C.0.750.06$329,45049
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, Conn.0.560.06$754,50060
Raleigh, N.C.0.870.06$349,95045
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Fla.0.690.06$315,00057
Madison, Wis.0.860.06$339,50040
Jackson, Miss.0.860.06$259,00071
Tampa-St. Petersburg et al, Fla.0.770.05$279,95058
Palm Bay-Melbourne et al, Fla.0.790.05$270,01861
Jacksonville, Fla.0.740.05$315,00060
Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, Ind.0.910.05$279,90045
Grand Rapids-Wyoming, Mich.0.80.05$289,90031
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, Colo.0.680.05$511,95029
Colorado Springs, Colo.0.620.05$379,90030
Augusta-Richmond County, Ga.-S.C.0.90.05$223,22560
Salt Lake City, Utah0.70.05$436,25031
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz.0.70.05$350,00046
Nashville-Davidson et al, Tenn.0.720.05$355,49537
Washington et al, D.C.-Va.-Md.-W.V.0.870.04$462,25034
Stockton-Lodi, Calif.0.620.04$425,47535
St. Louis, Mo.-Ill.1.080.04$229,18852
Riverside et al, Calif.0.620.04$410,45050
New Haven-Milford, Conn.0.90.04$279,90050
Minneapolis et al, Minn.-Wis.0.810.04$360,00034
Miami-Fort Lauderdale et al, Fla.0.620.04$399,00088
Deltona-Daytona Beach et al, Fla.0.620.04$294,50073
Allentown-Bethlehem et al, Pa.-N.J.10.04$222,45054
Los Angeles-Long Beach et al, Calif.0.370.04$769,50042
Springfield, Mass.0.830.04$279,00037
Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, S.C.0.840.04$269,00050
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, Mich.0.970.04$258,25036
San Diego-Carlsbad, Calif.0.390.03$699,92531
North Port-Sarasota et al, Fla.0.660.03$359,90086
Harrisburg-Carlisle, Pa.1.070.03$219,90045
Boise City, Idaho0.640.03$369,90030
Sacramento–Roseville et al, Calif.0.570.03$493,72535
Portland-South Portland, Maine0.70.03$379,45047
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, Md.0.960.03$334,50043
Tucson, Ariz.0.670.02$298,25052
San Antonio-New Braunfels, Texas0.680.02$295,00049
New York-Newark et al, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa.0.540.02$564,50052
Little Rock et al, Ark.1.030.02$194,90053
Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, Nev.0.720.02$319,90043
Knoxville, Tenn.0.770.02$289,90056
Hartford-West Hartford et al, Conn.0.980.02$279,90046
Fresno, Calif.0.660.02$322,50042
Durham-Chapel Hill, N.C.0.680.02$361,25043
Columbia, S.C.0.980.02$235,00053
Chicago et al, Ill.-Ind.-Wis.0.860.02$311,38642
Albuquerque, N.M.0.810.02$269,99546
Spokane-Spokane Valley, Wash.0.690.02$329,99531
Richmond, Va.0.830.02$332,05346
Wichita, Kan.0.960.01$212,45044
Virginia Beach et al, V.a-N.C.0.850.01$301,00045
Urban Honolulu, Hawaii0.520.01$694,90056
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Wash.0.510.01$627,50030
Providence-Warwick, R.I.-Mass.0.640.01$369,90044
Pittsburgh, Pa.1.050.01$197,25059
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, Calif.0.430.01$689,47540
Memphis, Tenn.-Miss.-Ark.1.010.01$223,50044
Columbus, Ohio0.950.01$264,90035
Cincinnati, Ohio-Ky.-Ind.0.890.01$289,90043
Buffalo-Cheektowaga et al, N.Y.0.920.01$220,00036
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.-N.H.0.620.01$594,25030
Albany-Schenectady-Troy, N.Y.0.840.01$299,90064
Charleston-North Charleston, S.C.0.690.01$427,45067
Worcester, Mass.-Conn.0.850$349,00036
Toledo, Ohio1.130$166,95043
Omaha-Council Bluffs, Neb.-Iowa0.810$297,63029
Milwaukee-Waukesha et al, Wis.0.860$279,90036
Houston-The Woodlands et al, Texas0.70$324,94551
Cleveland-Elyria, Ohio1.030$190,60649
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas0.68-0.01$196,00083
Baton Rouge, La.0.93-0.01$249,90070
Youngstown-Warren et al, Ohio-Pa.1.21-0.01$124,90064
Dayton, Ohio1.15-0.01$157,74538
Akron, Ohio1.11-0.02$174,90040
Philadelphia et al, Pa.-N.J.-Del.-Md.0.92-0.02$288,95046
Winston-Salem, N.C.0.85-0.02$245,00045
Scranton–Wilkes-Barre et al, Pa.1.06-0.02$162,40067
Oklahoma City, Okla.0.87-0.02$256,50043
New Orleans-Metairie, La.0.74-0.02$292,50060
Louisville et al, Ky.-Ind.0.91-0.02$277,45043
Greensboro-High Point, N.C.0.85-0.02$245,90045
Chattanooga, Tenn.-Ga.0.77-0.03$289,70051
Birmingham-Hoover, Ala.0.96-0.03$249,00050
Rochester, N.Y.0.93-0.04$222,45031
Bakersfield, Calif.0.79-0.04$260,00043
Syracuse, N.Y.1.04-0.04$184,95051
Kansas City, Mo.-Kan.0.88-0.04$302,50040
Tulsa, Okla.0.89-0.07$239,50050
El Paso, Texas0.79-0.09$191,47568

About realtor.com® 
Realtor.com®, The Home of Home Search℠, offers the most MLS-listed for-sale listings among national real estate portals, and access to information, tools and professional expertise that help people move confidently through every step of their home journey. Through its Opcity platform, realtor.com® uses data science and machine learning to connect consumers with a real estate professional based on their specific buying and selling needs. Realtor.com®pioneered the world of digital real estate 20 years ago, and today is a trusted resource for home buyers, sellers and dreamers by making all things home simple, efficient and enjoyable. Realtor.com® is operated by News Corp [Nasdaq: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc. under a perpetual license from the National Association of REALTORS®. For more information, visit realtor.com®.

Contact: Cody Horvat — cody.horvat@move.com