Daily Archives: March 4, 2024

Housing Activity Expected to Pick Up in 2024 as Rates Move Lower

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Economic Growth Still Predicted to Soften as the Labor Market Shows Signs of Cooling

Washington, D.C. – Feb. 23, 2024 (PRNewswire) Existing home sales and new single-family housing starts are expected to grow modestly in 2024 amid lower mortgage rates and slowly strengthening homebuyer sentiment, according to the February 2024 commentary from the Fannie Mae (OTCQB: FNMA) Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group. While housing affordability is still seriously constrained following the home price run-up of the past few years, the supply of existing homes available for sale is finally showing signs of loosening. Additionally, more households have recently signaled that they expect mortgage rates to decline, as evidenced by Fannie Mae’s January 2024 Home Purchase Sentiment Index®, a newfound optimism that may signal an increased openness to moving. The ESR Group’s latest forecast sees mortgage rates falling to 5.9 percent by the end of 2024 and 5.7 percent by the end of 2025, both slight upticks compared to last month’s forecast. Additionally, it expects single-family starts to trend upward in 2024 despite the pullback this past month, as permits have increased for twelve consecutive months and demand for new homes remains robust.

The ESR Group upgraded its 2024 macroeconomic growth outlook due to a stronger-than-expected Q4 2023 gross domestic product (GDP) report, as well as incoming data on recent population growth and immigration trends that point to faster payroll and GDP growth over the forecast horizon. Still, the ESR Group continues to expect a slower pace of economic growth in 2024 compared to 2023. An unsustainably low savings rate suggests softer consumer spending going forward, consistent with the pullback in January retail sales, and slowing local and state tax receipts point to slower direct government spending growth. Further, while payroll growth looks to have reaccelerated in December and January, other labor market measures indicate softness, including the household survey and the quits rate. On net, this suggests to the ESR Group that the labor market is likely to cool in the near future.

“Market dynamics continue to reflect significant uncertainty regarding the sustainability of stronger-than-expected recent GDP growth, the continuity of the decline of inflation, and the path of monetary policy change, not to mention the many ways in which historical relationships in housing and the larger economy remain out of balance post-pandemic,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Right now, our base case scenario foresees economic growth decelerating, rates gradually declining, and new single-family home sales slowly recovering as construction adds supply. However, if economic growth continues to surprise to the upside, then we believe the risk of mortgage rates remaining higher for longer will also increase.”

Visit the Economic & Strategic Research site at fanniemae.com to read the full February 2024 Economic Outlook, including the Economic Developments Commentary, Economic Forecast, Housing Forecast, and Multifamily Market Commentary. To receive e-mail updates with other housing market research from Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research Group, please click here.

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae’s business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR Group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management. 

About the ESR Group
Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group, led by Chief Economist Doug Duncan, studies current data, analyzes historical and emerging trends, and conducts surveys of consumer and mortgage lender groups to provide forecasts and analyses on the economy, housing, and mortgage markets. The ESR Group was awarded the prestigious 2022 Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecast Accuracy based on the accuracy of its macroeconomic forecasts published over the 4-year period from 2018 to 2021.

About Fannie Mae
Fannie Mae advances equitable and sustainable access to homeownership and quality, affordable rental housing for millions of people across America. We enable the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and drive responsible innovation to make homebuying and renting easier, fairer, and more accessible. To learn more, visit:
fanniemae.com | Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn | Instagram | YouTube | Blog

Fannie Mae Newsroom
https://www.fanniemae.com/news

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Fannie Mae Resource Center
1-800-2FANNIE

SOURCE Fannie Mae

Pending Home Sales Receded 4.9% in January

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Key Highlights

  • Pending home sales decreased 4.9% in January.
  • Month over month, contract signings rose in the Northeast and West but fell in the Midwest and South.
  • Compared to one year ago, pending home sales declined in all U.S. regions.

Washington, D.C. – February 29, 2024 (nar.realtor) Pending home sales in January dropped 4.9%, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Northeast and West posted monthly gains in transactions while the Midwest and South recorded losses. All four U.S. regions registered year-over-year decreases.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – decreased to 74.3 in January. Year over year, pending transactions were down 8.8%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.

“The job market is solid, and the country’s total wealth reached a record high due to stock market and home price gains,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “This combination of economic conditions is favorable for home buying. However, consumers are showing extra sensitivity to changes in mortgage rates in the current cycle, and that’s impacting home sales.”

Pending Home Sales Snapshot Infographic, January 2024

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Pending Home Sales Regional Breakdown

The Northeast PHSI increased 0.8% from last month to 63.6, a decline of 5.5% from January 2023. The Midwest index decreased 7.6% to 73.7 in January, down 11.6% from one year ago.

The South PHSI declined 7.3% to 88.5 in January, falling 9.0% from the prior year. The West index rose 0.5% in January to 61.1, down 7.0% from January 2023.

“Southern states and those in the Rocky Mountain time zone experienced faster job growth compared to the rest of the country,” added Yun. “As a result, long-term housing demand is increasing more significantly in these regions. However, the timing and number of purchases will largely depend on the prevailing mortgage rates and inventory availability.”

About the National Association of REALTORS®

The National Association of REALTORS® is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1.5 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries. The term REALTOR® is a registered collective membership mark that identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS® and subscribes to its strict Code of Ethics.

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*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

Pending contracts are good early indicators of upcoming sales closings. However, the amount of time between pending contracts and completed sales is not identical for all home sales. Variations in the length of the process from pending contract to closed sale can be caused by issues such as buyer difficulties with obtaining mortgage financing, home inspection problems, or appraisal issues.

The index is based on a sample that covers about 40% of multiple listing service data each month. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months.

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined. By coincidence, the volume of existing-home sales in 2001 fell within the range of 5.0 to 5.5 million, which is considered normal for the current U.S. population.

NOTE: Existing-Home Sales for February will be released March 21. The next Pending Home Sales Index will be released March 28. All release times are 10 a.m. Eastern. View the NAR Statistical News Release Schedule.