Homeowners List While Buyers Hang Back, Pushing Inventory Higher

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Home value growth eases along with competition – price relief may be on the horizon

  • Homeowners are breaking free from rate lock — new listings rose nearly 13% since last year.
  • Inventory is accumulating, rising 22% over last year and reducing the pandemic-era deficit.
  • Home value appreciation slowed in May, and forecast points to prices easing over the next year.

Seattle, WA – June 12, 2024 (PRNewswire) Home sellers are returning to the market, but they’re finding buyers hesitating, according to the latest Zillow® market report.1 New listings of houses outpaced sales in May, allowing buyer competition and price growth to cool — and further price relief is in the forecast.

“Rate lock’s hold seems to be loosening — homeowners who may have put off listing their homes are done waiting. But just as more choices sprang up for sale, buyers turned on cruise control,” said Orphe Divounguy, Zillow senior economist. “Inflation has hit younger households hardest, and stubbornly high rates have pushed a mortgage out of reach for many first-time buyers. That has cooled competition for houses. If these trends hold, we’re likely to see price growth flatten or tick down over the next year.”

Inventory infusion
New listings from sellers took a larger-than-average step up, rising 8% from April to May, and now stands 13% above last year’s extremely low level. The effects of “rate lock” — when owners hold onto their existing homes and low-rate mortgages — are weakening over time. A Zillow survey of recent sellers found a large majority (about 80%) were influenced by life events, such as getting married or having a child, and not necessarily by optimal financial conditions. 

But buyers aren’t matching sellers’ enthusiasm; sales in May were 6% lower than last year.2 This helped partially restock the housing shelves, with the number of homes on the market rising 22% compared to last year’s near record-low level. Inventory is still 34% below pre-pandemic norms, but that’s the smallest deficit in more than three years. 

New listings rose the most annually on the West Coast and coastal South, in San Diego, Seattle, Charlotte, Raleigh and the San Francisco Bay Area. Compared to last year, total inventory accumulated the most in major Florida markets, where strong new construction has helped refill the coffers. Buyers saw more listings month over month in every major market except Miami. 

Competition and appreciation ease
As a result, competition among buyers eased in May, and home price appreciation cooled with it. Growth in typical home values slowed from 4.4% year over year in April to 3.9% in May — still a healthy, normal rate — while monthly appreciation ticked down from 1.2% in April to 0.8% in May. Home values are still up significantly — more than 45% — since before the pandemic. 

Prices have fallen year over year in New Orleans, Austin and San Antonio, while appreciation is strongest in the Northeast and coastal California.

Renters struggling to save up for a down payment may get a slight reprieve in the coming year. Zillow forecasts home values will end 2024 up 0.4% on the year, and tick down 1.4% through May 2025. 

What it means for buyers and sellers
Zillow’s market heat index shows the nation is becoming a bit friendlier for buyers and is headed toward “neutral” territory, but sellers still hold a slight advantage. Buffalo, Hartford and San Jose are the top markets for sellers among the 50 largest metro areas. New Orleans, Miami, Jacksonville and Memphis are all tilted toward buyers, giving those in the market better leverage in negotiations.  

Nationwide, nearly one-quarter of all homes for sale received a price cut in May, the highest share in the past six years for this time of year. There’s a good chance that buyers can purchase a lingering property for less than list price. This environment makes experienced agents all the more valuable for both buyers and sellers, to find and negotiate deals for buyers, and to price and market properties correctly for sellers.  

Size
rank		Metropolitan
Area		May Zillow Home
Value Index
(ZHVI) (Raw)		ZHVI Change, 
Year over Year
(YoY)		ZHVI Change 
Since Before the
Pandemic		Market
Favors**		Share of
Listings with a
Price Cut		Inventory
Change, YoY		New Listings
Change, YoY
0United States$360,3103.9 %45.3 %Sellers23.9 %22.1 %12.6 %
1New York, NY$658,6037.1 %31.6 %Strong sellers13.8 %-4.6 %7.3 %
2Los Angeles, CA$965,5068.9 %42.8 %Strong sellers18.1 %21.1 %21.3 %
3Chicago, IL$321,7337.0 %35.7 %Strong sellers21.1 %3.0 %6.6 %
4Dallas, TX$379,2521.1 %46.9 %Sellers32.0 %28.9 %12.5 %
5Houston, TX$309,8541.6 %38.6 %Neutral28.3 %25.8 %11.6 %
6Washington, DC$569,6024.7 %30.7 %Strong sellers19.7 %11.3 %16.7 %
7Philadelphia, PA$362,1786.7 %43.8 %Sellers20.6 %5.8 %12.2 %
8Miami, FL$490,5116.6 %62.0 %Buyers24.5 %43.5 %10.8 %
9Atlanta, GA$386,7984.0 %56.3 %Neutral28.0 %37.5 %23.4 %
10Boston, MA$701,7408.3 %42.5 %Strong sellers16.9 %9.7 %15.6 %
11Phoenix, AZ$461,3904.2 %53.0 %Sellers35.2 %13.6 %26.6 %
12San Francisco, CA$1,188,8685.4 %25.5 %Strong sellers18.6 %27.1 %29.0 %
13Riverside, CA$585,9996.5 %52.1 %Sellers22.9 %23.7 %16.7 %
14Detroit, MI$254,0986.3 %40.4 %Sellers18.1 %6.2 %7.8 %
15Seattle, WA$754,3326.4 %44.8 %Strong sellers22.8 %27.1 %31.4 %
16Minneapolis, MN$376,4611.3 %27.4 %Strong sellers21.7 %22.7 %15.4 %
17San Diego, CA$962,78611.1 %56.8 %Sellers22.9 %44.4 %32.5 %
18Tampa, FL$381,4142.8 %61.8 %Buyers36.2 %60.6 %24.7 %
19Denver, CO$593,7321.9 %36.1 %Sellers32.9 %32.2 %24.5 %
20Baltimore, MD$387,4553.8 %31.3 %Sellers21.9 %14.7 %16.3 %
21St. Louis, MO$253,1434.5 %40.2 %Strong sellers19.5 %12.8 %5.8 %
22Orlando, FL$397,8593.3 %54.6 %Neutral30.0 %49.9 %20.7 %
23Charlotte, NC$386,1815.1 %59.1 %Neutral24.9 %27.3 %30.4 %
24San Antonio, TX$288,333-2.2 %34.7 %Neutral32.5 %29.3 %3.9 %
25Portland, OR$554,4651.6 %32.3 %Strong sellers25.8 %23.0 %14.2 %
26Sacramento, CA$586,9974.3 %34.5 %Strong sellers25.0 %19.8 %21.4 %
27Pittsburgh, PA$217,9686.1 %33.3 %Sellers23.1 %5.6 %13.0 %
28Cincinnati, OH$287,7545.2 %47.5 %Strong sellers22.0 %16.1 %12.1 %
29Austin, TX$463,202-4.1 %42.4 %Neutral30.7 %14.7 %14.6 %
30Las Vegas, NV$429,3697.1 %44.4 %Sellers23.3 %3.5 %23.1 %
31Kansas City, MO$306,0023.9 %45.8 %Strong sellers23.3 %27.8 %15.5 %
32Columbus, OH$314,9995.5 %49.7 %Strong sellers24.3 %25.9 %21.8 %
33Indianapolis, IN$281,9913.5 %50.7 %Sellers27.9 %21.2 %12.2 %
34Cleveland, OH$230,9537.5 %46.3 %Strong sellers18.7 %0.4 %7.1 %
35San Jose, CA$1,644,20212.7 %41.7 %Strong sellers14.5 %21.0 %28.5 %
36Nashville, TN$445,5522.1 %48.7 %Neutral32.8 %17.5 %13.5 %
37Virginia Beach, VA$351,4015.5 %41.0 %Sellers19.5 %17.1 %10.1 %
38Providence, RI$483,3138.2 %51.6 %Strong sellers15.4 %9.0 %11.0 %
39Jacksonville, FL$360,5471.4 %52.3 %Buyers32.7 %45.6 %16.2 %
40Milwaukee, WI$348,4356.5 %42.3 %Strong sellers11.4 %12.8 %17.1 %
41Oklahoma City, OK$235,3072.4 %42.9 %Neutral27.2 %23.1 %12.6 %
42Raleigh, NC$448,8583.0 %53.4 %Sellers29.2 %35.3 %29.1 %
43Memphis, TN$242,3001.8 %46.6 %Buyers27.1 %24.2 %5.1 %
44Richmond, VA$372,3535.0 %46.9 %Strong sellers20.7 %15.9 %12.6 %
45Louisville, KY$258,5223.7 %37.0 %Sellers23.9 %27.7 %20.1 %
46New Orleans, LA$241,191-5.9 %5.0 %Buyers27.0 %22.3 %5.8 %
47Salt Lake City, UT$548,5302.7 %46.3 %Sellers30.1 %19.4 %14.2 %
48Hartford, CT$363,76311.6 %56.3 %Strong sellers12.0 %15.9 %16.2 %
49Buffalo, NY$264,1117.5 %51.4 %Strong sellers14.5 %1.8 %2.6 %
50Birmingham, AL$254,4840.0 %37.6 %Sellers24.1 %22.0 %12.0 %
*Table ordered by market size 
**Based on Zillow Market Heat Index
1The Zillow® Real Estate Market Report is a monthly overview of the national and local real estate markets. The reports are compiled by Zillow Research. For more information, visit www.zillow.com/research.
2Tracked by Zillow’s Sales Count NowCast.

About Zillow Group:
Zillow Group, Inc. (Nasdaq: Z and ZG) is reimagining real estate to make home a reality for more and more people. As the most visited real estate website in the United States, Zillow and its affiliates help people find and get the home they want by connecting them with digital solutions, dedicated partners and agents, and easier buying, selling, financing and renting experiences. 

Zillow Group’s affiliates, subsidiaries and brands include Zillow®, Zillow Premier Agent®, Zillow Home Loans℠, Trulia®, Out East®, StreetEasy®, HotPads®, ShowingTime+℠, Spruce® and Follow Up Boss®. 

All marks herein are owned by MFTB Holdco, Inc., a Zillow affiliate. Zillow Home Loans, LLC is an Equal Housing Lender, NMLS #10287 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). © 2023 MFTB Holdco, Inc., a Zillow affiliate.

SOURCE Zillow

Higher Risk Of Housing Market Slowdown Continues In California, New Jersey And Illinois

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Metro Areas More Exposed to Market Downturns Again Led by New York City and Chicago; South and Midwest Regions Still Face Relatively Low Expose to Declines

Irvine, CA – June 13, 2024 (PRNewswire) ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property, and real estate data, today released a Special Housing Risk Report spotlighting county-level housing markets around the United States that are more or less vulnerable to declines, based on home affordability, underwater mortgages and other measures in the first quarter of 2024. The report shows that California, New Jersey and Illinois once again had the highest concentrations of the most-at-risk markets in the country, with some of the biggest clusters in the New York City and Chicago areas, as well as inland California. Less-vulnerable markets remained spread mainly throughout the South and Midwest.

The first-quarter patterns – derived from gaps in home affordability, underwater mortgages, foreclosures and unemployment – revealed that California, New Jersey and Illinois had 34 of the 50 counties around the U.S. considered most exposed to potential drop-offs. As with earlier periods over the past few years, those concentrations dominated the list of metropolitan areas more at risk of downturns.

The 50 counties on the list included six in and around Chicago, five in the New York City metropolitan area and 14 in areas of California mostly away from the Pacific coast. The rest were scattered around other parts of the country.

At the other end of the risk spectrum, 22 of the 50 markets considered least likely to decline fell in Virginia, Wisconsin and Tennessee. They included four each in the Washington, DC, and Richmond, VA, metro areas.

“The patterns of varying market vulnerability that we’ve been seeing over the past few years are pretty much continuing in place, with some of the same areas falling out at opposite ends of the trend line,” said Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM. “Once again, this is not to suggest that any one market is facing imminent decline. It’s more a measure of vulnerability gaps. But with the housing market slowing down over the past year, some metro areas appear notably better positioned than others to withstand a scenario of the market topping out and heading downward.”

Counties were considered more or less at risk based on the percentage of homes facing possible foreclosure, the portion with mortgage balances that exceeded estimated property values, the percentage of average local wages required to pay for major home ownership expenses on median-priced single-family homes and local unemployment rates. The conclusions were drawn from an analysis of the most recent home affordability, equity and foreclosure reports prepared by ATTOM. Unemployment rates came from federal government data. Rankings were based on a combination of those four categories in 590 counties around the United States with sufficient data to analyze in the first quarter of 2024. Counties were ranked in each category, from lowest to highest, with the overall conclusion based on a combination of the four ranks. See below for the full methodology.

Widely varying levels of risk continued to show up around throughout the country in the first quarter of 2024 following a year when various market metrics – including home prices, profits, equity and affordability – tracked lower or cooled off across much of the nation.

Chicago and New York City metro areas remain more vulnerable along with large areas of California
The metropolitan areas around Chicago, IL, and New York, NY, as well as broad stretches of northern and central California, had 25 of the 50 U.S. counties considered most vulnerable in the first quarter of 2024 to housing market troubles (from among 590 counties with enough data to analyze).

The 50 most at-risk counties included De Kalb, Kane, Kendall, McHenry and Will counties in Illinois and Lake County in Indiana, one in New York City (Kings County, which covers Brooklyn) and four in the New York City suburbs (Essex, Passaic, Sussex and Union counties, all in New Jersey).

The 14 in California included Butte County (Chico), El Dorado County (outside Sacramento), Humboldt County (Eureka), Solano County (outside Sacramento) and Yolo County (outside Sacramento) in the northern part of the state, and Fresno County, Kern County (Bakersfield), Kings County (outside Fresno), Madera County (outside Fresno), Merced County, San Joaquin County (Stockton), Stanislas County (Modesto) and Tulare County (outside Fresno) in central California. One other, San Bernardino County, was in southern California.

Counties facing greater exposure to declines have weaker levels of affordability, underwater mortgages, foreclosures and unemployment
Major home-ownership costs (mortgage payments, property taxes and insurance) on median-priced single-family homes and condos consumed more than one-third of average local wages in 36 of the 50 counties that were considered most vulnerable to market drop-offs in the first quarter of 2024. Nationwide, major expenses on typical homes sold in the first quarter required 32.3 percent of average local wages – almost exactly one-third.

The highest percentages in the 50 most at-risk markets were in Kings County (Brooklyn), NY (109.5 percent of average local wages needed for major ownership costs); El Dorado County, CA (outside Sacramento) (64 percent); Passaic County, NY (outside New York City) (62.1 percent); San Joaquin County (Stockton), CA (58.4 percent) and San Bernardino County, CA (57.3 percent).

At least 5 percent of residential mortgages were underwater in the first quarter of 2024 in 41 of the 50 most-at-risk counties. Nationwide, 6.6 percent of mortgages fell into that category, with homeowners owing more on their mortgages than the estimated value of their properties. Those with the highest underwater rates among the 50 most at-risk counties were Webb County (Laredo), TX (31.5 percent underwater); Tangipahoa Parish, LA (east of Baton Rouge) (21.2 percent); Livingston Parish, LA (20.6 percent); Peoria County, IL, (19.8 percent) and Hardin County, KY (outside Louisville) (15.9 percent).

More than one of every 1,000 residential properties faced a foreclosure action in the first quarter of 2024 in 44 of the 50 most vulnerable counties. Nationwide, one in 1,478 homes were in that position.

The highest foreclosure-case rates among the top 50 counties were in Osceola County (Kissimmee), FL (one in 480 residential properties facing possible foreclosure); Cumberland County (Vineland), NJ, (one in 488); Warren County, NJ (outside Allentown, PA) (one in 517); Sussex County, NJ (outside New York City) (one in 555) and Lake County, IN (outside Chicago, IL) (one in 567).

The March 2024 unemployment rate was at least 5 percent in 30 of the 50 most at-risk counties, while the nationwide figure stood at 3.8 percent. The highest rates in the top 50 counties were all in central California: Tulare County, CA (outside Fresno) (12 percent); Merced County, CA (11.6 percent); Kern County (Bakersfield), CA (10.2 percent); Kings County, CA (outside Fresno) (10.1 percent) and Fresno County, CA (9.2 percent).

Counties least at risk spread mostly throughout South and Midwest
Twenty-four of the 50 counties considered least vulnerable to housing-market problems from among the 590 included in the first-quarter report were in the South and 19 were in the Midwest. Just four were in the Northeast while three were in the West.

Virginia had nine of the 50 least at-risk counties in the first quarter: Alexandria City, Arlington, Fairfax and Loudoun counties, all in the Washington, DC, area, as well as Chesterfield, Hanover, Henrico and Richmond City counties in the Richmond, VA, area. Albemarle County (Charlottesville) also was on the bottom 50 list.

Another seven of the 50 least vulnerable counties were in Wisconsin. They were Brown County (Green Bay), Outagamie County (outside Green Bay), Dane County (Madison), Rock County (outside Madison), Eau Claire County, La Crosse County and Winnebago County (Oshkosh). Six more were in Tennessee. They included Davidson, Rutherford and Williamson counties in the Nashville metro area, Blount and Knox County in the Knoxville area and Sullivan County (Kingsport).

Less-vulnerable counties have better across-the-board market measures
Major ownership costs on median-priced single-family homes and condos required more than one-third of average local wages in 28 of the 50 counties that were considered least vulnerable to market problems in the first quarter of 2024 (compared to 36 of the most at-risk counties).

The highest levels were in Gallatin County (Bozeman), MT (64.9 percent of average local wages needed for major ownership costs); Williamson County, TN (outside Nashville) (58.8 percent); Loudoun County, VA (outside Washington, DC) (55.8 percent); Alexandria City/County, VA (52.2 percent) and Cumberland County (Portland), ME (49.4 percent).

Less than 5 percent of residential mortgages were underwater in the first quarter of 2024 (with owners owing more than their properties were worth) in 38 of the 50 least-at-risk counties. Those with the lowest rates were Chittenden County (Burlington), VT (0.9 percent underwater); Loudoun County, VA (outside Washington, DC) (1.9 percent); Hillsborough County (Manchester), NH (2 percent); Cumberland County (Portland) ME (2.2 percent) and Gallatin County (Bozeman), MT (2.6 percent).

More than one in 1,000 residential properties faced a foreclosure action during the first quarter of 2024 in none of the 50 least-at-risk counties. Those with the lowest rates were Eau Claire County, WI (one in 22,621 residential properties facing possible foreclosure); Chittenden County (Burlington), VT (one in 18,302); Dane County (Madison), WI (one in 15,651); Arlington County, VA (one in 13,250) and Winnebago County (Oshkosh), WI (one in 10,910).

The March 2024 unemployment rate was less than 4 percent in all 50 of the least-at-risk counties. The lowest rates among those counties were in Chittenden County (Burlington), VT (1.4 percent); Arlington County, VA (1.8 percent); Alexandria City/County, VA (2.1 percent); Hanover County (Richmond), VA (2.1 percent) and Fairfax County, VA (outside Washington, DC) (2.1 percent).

Report methodology
The ATTOM Special Market Impact Report is based on ATTOM’s first-quarter 2024 residential foreclosure, home affordability and underwater property reports, plus March 2024 unemployment figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (Press releases for affordability, foreclosure and underwater-property reports show the methodology for each.) Counties with sufficient data to analyze were ranked based on the first-quarter percentage of residential properties with a foreclosure filing, the percentage of average local wages needed to afford the major expenses of owning a median-priced home and the percentage of properties with outstanding mortgage balances that exceeded their estimated market values, along with March 2024 county-level unemployment rates. Ranks then were added up to develop a composite ranking across all four categories. Equal weight was given to each category. Counties with the lowest composite rank were considered most vulnerable to housing market problems. Those with the highest composite rank were considered least vulnerable.

About ATTOM
ATTOM provides premium property data to power products that improve transparency, innovation, efficiency, and disruption in a data-driven economy. ATTOM multi-sources property tax, deed, mortgage, foreclosure, environmental risk, natural hazard, and neighborhood data for more than 155 million U.S. residential and commercial properties covering 99 percent of the nation’s population. A rigorous data management process involving more than 20 steps validates, standardizes, and enhances the real estate data collected by ATTOM, assigning each property record with a persistent, unique ID — the ATTOM ID. The 30TB ATTOM Data Warehouse fuels innovation in many industries including mortgage, real estate, insurance, marketing, government and more through flexible data delivery solutions that include ATTOM Cloud, bulk file licenses, property data APIs, real estate market trends, property navigator and more. Also, introducing our newest innovative solution, making property data more readily accessible and optimized for AI applications– AI-Ready Solutions. 

Media Contact:
Megan Hunt
megan.hunt@attomdata.com 

Data and Report Licensing:
datareports@attomdata.com

SOURCE ATTOM

PowerSite Profile: A Miami Beach Oceanfront Penthouse

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We are excited to present this PowerSite single property Website:

Edition1405.com

Marketed by Toni and Lauren Schrager of Brown Harris Stevens, the Website highlights a $7.5MM, 2 bedroom, 2 full, 2 half bathroom, oceanfront penthouse on Miami Beach.

Using our PowerSite platform, Toni and Lauren have added:

  • lots of high definition photos
  • a detailed description
  • a print brochure
  • office info
  • an embedded Virtual Tour
  • a property map
  • agent contact information.

Toni has accrued more than $2 Billion in personal lifetime sales by anticipating the ebb and flow of South Florida’s luxury Real Estate market, and investing in talent and innovation to stay ahead of trends. Her local and international clients rely on her for personal service, knowledge, discretion and results. Each is a VIP, catered to throughout the listing, sale or purchase process.

As a Realtor® since 1983, a cofounder of Avatar Real Estate Services and a Brown Harris Stevens Miami Senior Vice President and founding Partner, Toni brings a long view to every transaction — from listings, to negotiations, to closings.

Toni’s client-centered approach is simple: Conduct every Real Estate transaction with the utmost integrity and professionalism — standards that ensure both the buyer and seller are extremely well served.

Lauren brings her considerable experience in global banking and capital markets to the Toni Schrager Team, which she joined just as the recent historic Real Estate boom was starting to rock in 2020. Trial by fire suited the Summa Cum Laude Wake Forest grad well. Prior to diving into the South Florida market headfirst, the Miami native excelled as a financial analyst for the esteemed firm of Ernst & Young.

Lauren’s a smart, strategic thinker, speaks fluent Spanish, and possesses a depth of knowledge in business analytics, regulatory transformation and know-your-customer due diligence. This toolbox, together with her intelligence, attention to detail and engaging personality, serves her well in South Florida’s highly competitive luxury Real Estate market.

Buyers, sellers and investors will reap the benefits of Lauren’s formidable business experience and intimate knowledge of the local Real Estate market. Together with her professionalism and inordinate energy, Lauren is a force of nature whose charm and integrity are her calling cards.

Each PowerSite single property Website includes:

Cutting Edge Design: Modern single-page design with clean, elegant lines.

Custom URL: Web address included! Simply choose any available .com web address to match your property (i.e. 123anyst.com) and we do the rest.

Stunning Photography: We believe good photos make your site stand out from the rest. Gorgeous high-resolution photos fill the screen. Show off your property with unlimited pictures!

Content Control: Maintain full access to your site’s content 24 hours a day, 7 days a week through our easy-to-use admin system.

Dynamic Map: Embedded Google maps provides maximum flexibility.

Responsive Layout: Sites are optimized for desktop, tablet, and smartphones.

Videos & Virtual Tours: Embed virtual tours or custom made videos from YouTube, Vimeo and more.

Social Networks: Links to Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, LinkedIn, and more.

For more information, visit AgencyLogic.com.