Vaccine Could Boost Listings Ahead of Home Shopping Season

– Zillow survey finds widespread vaccine distribution will likely make homeowners more comfortable selling in a market driven by strong demand.

– A large majority of homeowners (70%) say they would be mostly or completely comfortable moving to a new home with widespread COVID-19 vaccine distribution, compared to about half (52%) who currently feel that way.

– That represents homeowners in 14 million homes who feel newly comfortable moving after widespread vaccination.

– Nearly four in five (78%) homeowners who said the vaccine would impact their decision to sell say they expect it to make them more likely to move.

Seattle, WA – Feb. 23, 2021 (PRNewswire) The COVID-19 vaccine is likely to add more buyers and sellers to an already red hot real estate market.

A new surveyfrom Zillow finds a large majority (70%) of homeowners say they would be comfortable moving to a new home after widespread COVID-19 vaccine distribution, a meaningful bump from the 52% who currently feel that way. That amounts to homeowners in more than 14 million homes feeling newly comfortable moving after widespread vaccination.2

Among homeowners who said the vaccine would impact their decision to sell, nearly four-in-five (78%) said they expect it will make them more likely to move.

This research follows Zillow’s prediction of 7 million home sales this year, nearly 25% more than in 2020, as more sellers regain the confidence to return to the market at a time of incredible demand. Last fall, Zillow research found financial anxiety and ongoing uncertainty was keeping some would-be sellers on the sidelines, depressing inventory. Now survey results find measures of both life and financial uncertainty have decreased: 25% of homeowners reported their life or financial situation was too uncertain this January, compared to 29% who said the same in November. 

Sellers drawn in by more certainty, the vaccine and strong sale prices could help feed a ravenous demand for homes this spring home shopping season. 2020 brought a dramatic acceleration in the speed of the market, with buyers snapping up homes just days after they were listed for sale. That velocity, enabled by the rapid adoption of real estate technology, allowed existing home sales to rise 5.6% while overall inventory fell.

“We expect that the vaccine rollout will likely boost inventory, as sellers become increasingly willing to move despite Covid-19 — resulting in greater numbers of new listings beginning this spring,” says Chris Glynn, principal economist at Zillow. “That injection of inventory could give buyers more options and breathing room in a competitive market. The vaccine, however, will also likely add to already-strong demand, given that most sellers will become buyers as they trade in for a home that better suits their new needs. ” 

That already-strong demand is being driven by both demographic and pandemic-led factors. Millennials — often considered the largest generational group in the country — are aging into their peak home-buying years. The generation fueling the Zillow surfing trend is now hitting their mid-30s, the median age of a first-time home buyer.

The Great Reshuffling continues to contribute to unrelenting demand in the for-sale market, as the pandemic has prompted people to rethink how and where they want to live. The freedom to telework has opened up new, affordable housing options all over the country. Real estate tech tools, such as next-generation 3D home virtual tours with interactive floor plans, are enabling shoppers to remotely explore all the possibilities a move could bring. 

About Zillow Group:

Zillow Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: Z and ZG) is reimagining real estate to make it easier to unlock life’s next chapter.

As the most-visited real estate website in the U.S., Zillow® and its affiliates offer customers an on-demand experience for selling, buying, renting or financing with transparency and nearly seamless end-to-end service. Zillow Offers® buys and sells homes directly in dozens of markets across the country, allowing sellers control over their timeline. Zillow Home Loans™, our affiliate lender, provides our customers with an easy option to get pre-approved and secure financing for their next home purchase. Zillow recently launched Zillow Homes, Inc., a licensed brokerage entity, to streamline Zillow Offers transactions. 

Zillow Group’s affiliates and subsidiaries include Zillow®, Zillow Offers®, Zillow Premier Agent®, Zillow Home Loans™, Zillow Closing Services™, Zillow Homes, Inc., Trulia®, Out East®, StreetEasy® and HotPads®. Zillow Home Loans, LLC is an Equal Housing Lender, NMLS #10287 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org).  

1 Zillow Group Population Science collected a nationally representative sample of more than 1,000 homeowners (household decision makers that own their home and did not move in the past year). From January 26th to January 29th, 2021, the survey asked homeowners questions about how the pandemic and widespread distribution of the COVID-19 vaccine would impact their plans to move. 

2 Applied to the American Community Survey’s count of all owner-occupied housing units, 14M represents the gap between those that currently feel comfortable moving and those that expect to after widespread distribution of the COVID-19 vaccine. 

SOURCE Zillow

Economic Growth Expected to Accelerate as Vaccine Deployment Quickens and Warmer Weather Approaches

ESR Group’s 2021 Forecast Theme: ‘The Economy Speeds Up and Housing Downshifts’

Washington D.C. – Jan. 15, 2021 (PRNewswire) — The U.S. economy is expected to grow 5.3 percent in 2021, a substantial improvement from the currently projected 2.7 percent contraction in 2020, with a strong pick-up in growth projected to commence over the spring months, according to the latest commentary from the Fannie Mae (OTCQB: FNMAEconomic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group. The latest forecast of full-year 2021 real GDP growth is an upgrade of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month’s forecast, reflecting the ESR Group’s view that the expansion of COVID-19 vaccination efforts and the approach of warmer weather will likely reverse the economic weakness experienced at the end of 2020. The ESR Group also noted that the continued recovery will likely be considerably faster than the recovery following the Great Recession and upgraded its 2022 growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points to 3.6 percent. Immediate risks to the forecast center around the path of the pandemic and progress on vaccination distribution. Impediments to that process could result in meaningful, adverse impacts to the timeline of projected growth. Otherwise, the ESR Group believes that conditions are favorable for a strong recovery, with inflationary pressure and higher interest rates being the most significant longer-term risks to growth.

Housing activity is expected to remain strong in 2021, but sector growth will likely decelerate from the torrid pace set in the second half of 2020. While the ESR Group expects home sales to rise 3.8 percent in 2021, the monthly pace is likely to slow through much of the year. Home price appreciation is also expected to slow along a similar timeline. Purchase mortgage originations are expected to rise in 2021 to $1.8 trillion from 2020’s projected $1.6 trillion, while refinance origination activity is forecast at $2.2 trillion in 2021, down from the projected all-time high of $2.8 trillion in 2020. With mortgage rates near historic lows, the ESR Group estimates that 67 percent of outstanding mortgages have at least a half-percentage point incentive to refinance.

“COVID-19 remains the dominant force altering the path of the economy through the behaviors of people, businesses and policy makers,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Therefore, the best policy for economic recovery is the broad distribution of an effective vaccine, which is underway. The sooner this can be successfully accomplished the sooner growth can accelerate, and our thought is that by mid-year vaccine distribution efforts will be well-established, allowing for a strong second half.”

“One impact of our projected growth acceleration is likely to be modestly rising interest rates, whether as a result of increased growth expectations – as consumer savings are augmented by stimulus leading to stronger consumer spending – or by a modest increase in inflation driven by demand growth outpacing a recovery in supply,” Duncan continued. “We believe the Fed’s policy of tolerating a modest overshoot of its long-term inflation target is likely to be tested.”

“Our latest forecast projects that the continued waning of pent-up demand from last year’s delayed spring homebuying season, coupled with a modest rise in interest rates, will likely slow the pace of housing, measured both by the volume of mortgages refinanced and by the pace of home sales. However, in our view, a modest slowdown in the sales pace is unlikely to prevent year-end 2021 home sales from being higher than 2020,” Duncan concluded.

Visit the Economic & Strategic Research site at fanniemae.com to read the full January 2021 Economic Outlook, including the Economic Developments CommentaryEconomic ForecastHousing Forecast, and Multifamily Market Commentary. To receive e-mail updates with other housing market research from Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research Group, please click here.

About Fannie Mae
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