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Data shows new listings and asking price trends strengthen after bottoming out in April
Santa Clara, CA – June 4, 2020 (PRNewswire) The U.S. housing market likely reached its low point during mid-April with constrained new inventory and minimal price growth. Signs of recovery emerged in late April and strengthened in May, setting the stage for continued growth over the summer, according to realtor.com®‘s May Monthly Housing Trends report issued today.
The data show the national median listing price hit a new all-time high of $330,000 in May, despite rising just 1.6 percent year-over-year. This price growth was an improvement over April’s 0.6 percent year-over-year growth which was the slowest pace in the past three years. Additionally, the weekly progression of data showed that price growth and new inventory trends improved.
The median list price began the month up 1.4 percent and strengthened throughout the month, increasing 3.1 percent during the last week of May. New listings were down 29.1 percent the week ending May 9, but recovered to down 22.9 percent by the week of May 30. While still well-below last year’s levels, the rate of decline in newly listed properties has improved dramatically from a drop of 44.1 percent year-over-year in April to down 29.4 percent in May. Despite these positive trends, COVID-related challenges linger; homes were on the market 15 days longer than this time last year.
“May’s home price data demonstrate the underlying strength of the U.S. housing market despite the challenges brought by the COVID-19 pandemic,” said realtor.com® Chief Economist Danielle Hale. “The fact that home prices are at an all-time high shows that the momentum the market had prior to the pandemic has helped to keep buyer and seller expectations stable. Ongoing inventory shortages, that continue to worsen, also push home prices higher even while homes sell more slowly.”
“As a sense of normalcy returns, we expect to see a shortened, but strong summer home selling season, as long as seller confidence continues to improve and more homes are listed for sale,” Hale added.
Listing Prices Hit New High Despite COVID-19
Thirty-five of the nation’s top 50 metros saw the median listing price grow on a year-over-year basis, up from 30 metros in April. Based on this trend, listing prices could reach new highs throughout the summer home buying season when prices typically see their yearly seasonal peak.
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, Calif. (+14.9 percent), Pittsburgh, Pa. (+14.0 percent); and Cincinnati, Ohio-Ky.-Ind. (+12.1 percent); posted the highest year-over-year median list price growth in May. The steepest price declines were seen in Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, Mich. (-3.4 percent); San Antonio-New Braunfels, Texas (-3.2 percent); and Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Wash. (-3.1 percent).
For-Sale Homes Still in Short Supply, but New Listings Trend Improves
National inventory continued to be constrained, down nearly 20 percent over last year, as seller reactions to COVID-19 exaggerated the housing market’s already insufficient supply of homes. At the same time, the month of May ended with an improvement in the new listings trend–smaller declines–in 45 of the 50 largest U.S. markets compared to last month. This signals that sellers are starting to return to the marketplace, which is needed to restore inventory levels for healthy market conditions.
Within the nation’s 50 largest metros, inventory declined by 21.9 percent year-over-year, a greater rate than April’s 16 percent decline. The metros which saw the largest declines in inventory were largely those hardest hit by COVID-19 along the East Coast, including: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, Pa.-N.J.-Del.-Md. (-38.6 percent); Providence-Warwick, R.I.-Mass. (-35.8 percent); and Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, Md. (-34.5 percent). This month, none of the largest 50 metros saw an inventory increase on a year-over-year basis and 43 out of the 50 saw greater yearly inventory declines than last month.
COVID-19 Extends Days on Market
Homes continue to sell more slowly than last year due to stay at home orders and modified behavior resulting from COVID-19. The typical home is now selling in 71 days, which is more than two weeks slower than last year. Within the nation’s 50 largest metros, the typical home sold in 58 days, 13 days more slowly, on average, compared to last year.
Among the largest metropolitan areas, homes in areas hit hardest by COVID-19 saw the greatest increase in time spent on the market, including: Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, N.Y. (+34 days); Pittsburgh, Pa. (+33 days); and Detroit-Warren-Dearborn-Mich. (+32 days).
| Metros With Largest Decline in New Listings | ||||||
| Metro | New Listings YoY | Active Listing Count YoY | Median Listing Price | Median Listing Price YoY | Median Days on Market | Median Days on Market Y- Y |
| Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, Pa.-N.J.-Del.-Md. | -50.3% | -38.6% | $312,000 | 8.4% | 73 | 25 |
| Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, N.Y. | -43.2% | -30.0% | $232,000 | 5.5% | 70 | 34 |
| Providence-Warwick, R.I.-Mass. | -41.9% | -35.8% | $400,000 | 4.6% | 63 | 18 |
| New York-Newark-Jersey City, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa. | -40.7% | -21.0% | $575,000 | 0.6% | 72 | 21 |
| Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, Md. | -40.3% | -34.5% | $340,000 | 0.0% | 57 | 15 |
| Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-Va.-Md.-W. Va. | -39.8% | -31.5% | $510,000 | 4.2% | 44 | 12 |
| Kansas City, Mo.-Kan. | -36.9% | -31.0% | $350,000 | 7.5% | 64 | 22 |
| San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif. | -36.3% | -25.5% | $1,199,000 | 1.9% | 37 | 10 |
| Columbus, Ohio | -35.7% | -25.9% | $325,000 | 5.7% | 50 | 14 |
| Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, Conn. | -35.5% | -33.2% | $294,000 | 5.0% | 61 | 15 |
| Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, Ore.-Wash. | -35.3% | -23.1% | $490,000 | 2.3% | 52 | 18 |
| Rochester, N.Y. | -35.1% | -30.0% | $255,000 | 10.3% | 56 | 25 |
| Cleveland-Elyria, Ohio | -34.9% | -33.3% | $216,000 | 6.7% | 67 | 14 |
| Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, Ind. | -34.2% | -22.8% | $298,000 | 0.7% | 58 | 15 |
| Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, Va.-N.C. | -33.1% | -31.8% | $325,000 | 7.9% | 55 | 11 |
| Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.-N.H. | -32.6% | -27.6% | $630,000 | 4.2% | 54 | 20 |
| Cincinnati, Ohio-Ky.-Ind. | -32.2% | -33.7% | $325,000 | 12.1% | 52 | 9 |
| Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, Nev. | -31.2% | -9.0% | $329,000 | 2.8% | 55 | 13 |
| Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif. | -31.0% | -26.8% | $428,000 | 2.5% | 66 | 17 |
| Richmond, Va. | -30.9% | -17.6% | $349,000 | 4.5% | 55 | 9 |
| Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, Ill.-Ind.-Wis. | -30.5% | -22.6% | $330,000 | -2.9% | 59 | 18 |
| Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, Wis. | -30.5% | -17.9% | $375,000 | 7.2% | 51 | 10 |
| Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, Calif. | -30.3% | -17.3% | $915,000 | 14.9% | 67 | 25 |
| Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, N.C.-S.C. | -29.7% | -25.6% | $350,000 | 0.0% | 57 | 7 |
| Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, Colo. | -29.0% | -22.6% | $549,000 | 6.1% | 41 | 12 |
| Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, Calif. | -28.8% | -19.2% | $505,000 | 2.5% | 43 | 9 |
| Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Wash. | -27.5% | -21.6% | $610,000 | -3.1% | 36 | 7 |
| Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz. | -27.2% | -25.5% | $384,000 | 2.2% | 51 | 2 |
| San Diego-Carlsbad, Calif. | -27.1% | -29.7% | $749,000 | 4.5% | 44 | 14 |
| Raleigh, N.C. | -26.7% | -14.7% | $375,000 | -0.4% | 59 | 8 |
| Memphis, Tenn.-Miss.-Ark. | -25.9% | -26.7% | $250,000 | 7.6% | 60 | 7 |
| St. Louis, Mo.-Ill. | -25.7% | -23.2% | $250,000 | 6.0% | 70 | 14 |
| Louisville/Jefferson County, Ky.-Ind. | -25.3% | -26.9% | $290,000 | 0.0% | 57 | 11 |
| Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla. | -24.6% | -19.3% | $285,000 | 1.8% | 66 | 8 |
| Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Fla. | -24.1% | -8.6% | $315,000 | 0.0% | 67 | 10 |
| San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, Calif. | -23.9% | -16.0% | $998,000 | 5.1% | 36 | 8 |
| New Orleans-Metairie, La. | -23.8% | -13.3% | $299,000 | 0.0% | 73 | 14 |
| Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, Ga. | -22.8% | -16.7% | $334,000 | -0.6% | 56 | 9 |
| Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, Fla. | -22.5% | -10.1% | $398,000 | -2.2% | 105 | 16 |
| Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, Mich | -22.1% | -14.4% | $252,000 | -3.4% | 67 | 32 |
| San Antonio-New Braunfels, Texas | -19.9% | -9.0% | $300,000 | -3.2% | 64 | 13 |
| Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, Minn.-Wis. | -19.9% | -11.6% | $370,000 | 2.8% | 42 | 8 |
| Pittsburgh, Pa. | -19.7% | -17.3% | $225,000 | 14.0% | 91 | 33 |
| Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, Texas | -19.0% | -11.4% | $320,000 | -1.6% | 64 | 14 |
| Jacksonville, Fla. | -18.8% | -11.4% | $318,000 | -1.9% | 67 | 4 |
| Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, Tenn. | -16.7% | -17.4% | $385,000 | 3.6% | 37 | 3 |
| Oklahoma City, Okla. | -16.1% | -16.4% | $267,000 | 3.8% | 49 | 6 |
| Austin-Round Rock, Texas | -15.5% | -13.3% | $377,000 | 1.1% | 51 | 5 |
| Birmingham-Hoover, Ala. | -14.4% | -18.8% | $269,000 | 4.5% | 64 | 8 |
| Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas | -12.2% | -15.5% | $350,000 | -2.8% | 55 | 10 |
EDITOR’S NOTE: The realtor.com economics team is continually tracking the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the U.S. economy and housing market. The team’s reports and analysis are available here.
About realtor.com®
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Washington, D.C. – June 4, 2020 (nar.realtor) The National Association of Realtors® identified 10 markets with favorable conditions for millennial homebuyers during the coronavirus pandemic. In alphabetical order, the markets are:
“Record-low mortgage rates have improved housing affordability, bringing more buyers into the market, and multiple offers for starter homes could become common in these metro areas,” said NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “With relatively better employment conditions and a strong presence of millennials in these markets, more new home construction will be required to fully satisfy the housing demand as the economy reopens.”
NAR identified the top 10 metro areas for millennial homebuyers by analyzing current housing affordability, local job market conditions during the coronavirus pandemic, the share of millennials in the area and inventory availability in the largest 100 metropolitan statistical areas across the country.
“Nationally, millennials make up the largest share of homebuyers and these metropolitan areas, in particular, offer great opportunities to realize the dream of homeownership,” said NAR President Vince Malta, broker at Malta & Co., Inc., in San Francisco, CA. “As states and cities begin to reopen, millennials will play a significant role in the housing market’s recovery.”
Nationwide, the typical household can afford to buy 40% of the homes currently listed for sale compared to 34% a year earlier, according to the Realtors® Affordability Distribution Score, a collaboration between the National Association of Realtors® and realtor.com®. The score measures the affordability of current for-sale homes overall as well as at different income levels. In these top 10 markets, affordability increased more this year than it did nationwide. For example, a household earning $100,000 in Dallas can afford to buy 56% of homes currently listed for sale compared to 45% last year.
According to April 2020 employment data, employment declined by an average of nearly 13% in the largest 100 metro areas compared to last year. However, in Dallas, Houston, Salt Lake City and Phoenix, employment dropped 8% from a year earlier.
The 10 markets listed had a smaller share of workers, on average, in industries most affected by the pandemic-induced economic lockdown. For example, in Durham and Des Moines, 15% and 17% of employees, respectively, work in industries at high risk from coronavirus. The average for the largest 100 metropolitan areas is 21%.
Another common factor among these markets is better-than-average inventory availability. For Des Moines and Omaha, the number of active listings in April 2020 increased by 5% and 1%, respectively, according to realtor.com®. However, inventory declined 18% on average in the largest 100 metro areas.
Three in 10 residents in these markets – 30% – are millennials. With millennials making up the largest cohort of homebuyers, these areas are expected to see many of their millennial residents become homeowners.
To view NAR’s Top 10 Most Favorable Areas for Millennials During the Pandemic report, visit https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/research-reports/top-10-most-favorable-areas-for-millennials-during-the-pandemic.
June is National Homeownership Month and NAR encourages current and future homeowners to visit https://homeownershipmatters.realtor/ or search #CreatingHome to learn more about the benefits of owning a home as well as policies and programs that promote homeownership.
The National Association of Realtors® is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1.4 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.