Daily average mortgage rates dropped to their lowest level in three months on Wednesday, after the May CPI report showed that inflation is continuing to cool. That could bring back some demand; for now, home sales are still declining.
Seattle, WA – June 13, 2024 (BUSINESS WIRE) (NASDAQ: RDFN) The median U.S. home-sale price hit an all-time high of $394,000 during the four weeks ending June 9, up 4.4% year over year—the biggest increase in about three months. That’s according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.
There are signs that home-price growth could ease soon. Asking prices have leveled off, and 6.5% of home sellers are cutting their asking price, on average, the highest share since November 2022. Prices are already declining in four U.S. metros: Austin, TX, Fort Worth, TX, San Antonio, TX and Portland, OR.
Meanwhile, the typical homebuyer’s monthly housing payment dipped to $2,829, which is $30 below April’s record high. Median housing payments have fallen slightly since April despite record sale prices because weekly average mortgage rates have declined to 6.99%.
Mortgage rates are likely to decline further over the summer, which would keep monthly housing costs from spiraling up again. Daily average mortgage rates dropped to their lowest level in three months on June 12 after the latest CPI report showed that inflation is continuing to cool. And although the Fed forecast just one interest-rate cut this year at its June 12 meeting, it’s possible the Fed wasn’t able to fully consider the fresh inflation data in time for the meeting; they may revise their projection at the next meeting. (It’s worth noting that daily rates have been volatile for the last several days; they soared after last Friday’s hot jobs report before dropping back down.)
“The latest inflation report is good for homebuyers because it has already sent mortgage rates down, though this week’s Fed meeting will temper mortgage-rate declines,” said Chen Zhao, Redfin’s economic research lead. “But on the other side of the coin, if lower mortgage rates bring back more demand than supply, that could erase the possibility that home-price growth softens, and push prices up even further. Lower rates and higher prices may ultimately cancel each other out when it comes to homebuyers’ monthly payments.”
For now, high costs are keeping some prospective homebuyers on the sidelines. Pending home sales are down 3.5% year over year, the biggest decline in three months, and Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index—a measure of requests for tours and other buying services from Redfin agents—is down 18%, sitting at its lowest level since February. But there is one encouraging sign for demand: Mortgage-purchase applications are up 9% week over week. On the selling side, new listings are up 7.8% year over year, but they’re below typical springtime levels, which is why home prices keep rising despite tepid demand.
For more on Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, please visit Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page.
Leading indicators
| Indicators of homebuying demand and activity | ||||
| Value (if applicable) | Recent change | Year-over-year change | Source | |
| Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate | 6.98% (June 12) | Up from 7.03% a week earlier, but down from a 5-month high of 7.52% 5 weeks earlier | Up from 6.94% | Mortgage News Daily |
| Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate | 6.99% (week ending June 6) | Down slightly from 7.03% a week earlier; down from a 5-month high of 7.22% a month earlier | Up from 6.71% | Freddie Mac |
| Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted) | Increased 9% from a week earlier (as of week ending June 7) | Down 12% | Mortgage Bankers Association | |
| Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted) | Down 2% from a month earlier (as of week ending June 9) | Down 18% | Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents | |
| Touring activity | Up 28% from the start of the year (as of June 9) | At this time last year, it was up 22% from the start of 2023 | ShowingTime, a home touring technology company | |
| Google searches for “home for sale” | Unchanged from a month earlier (as of June 10) | Down 16% | Google Trends | |
Key housing-market data
| U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending June 9, 2024Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision. | |||
| Four weeks ending June 9, 2024 | Year-over-year change | Notes | |
| Median sale price | $393,627 | 4.4% | All-time high; biggest increase in about 3 months (tied with increase during 4 weeks ending April 21) |
| Median asking price | $417,475 | 6% | |
| Median monthly mortgage payment | $2,829 at a 6.99% mortgage rate | 8.6% | $30 below all-time high set during the 4 weeks ending April 28 |
| Pending sales | 86,604 | -3.5% | Biggest decline in 3 months |
| New listings | 100,411 | 7.8% | |
| Active listings | 939,839 | 16.7% | |
| Months of supply | 3.2 | +0.6 pts. | 4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions |
| Share of homes off market in two weeks | 42.4% | Down from 48% | |
| Median days on market | 31 | +3 days | |
| Share of homes sold above list price | 32.1% | Down from 35% | |
| Share of homes with a price drop | 6.5% | +2 pts. | Highest level since Nov. 2022 |
| Average sale-to-list price ratio | 99.6% | -0.3 pts. | |
| Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending June 9, 2024Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy. | |||
| Metros with biggest year-over-year increases | Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases | Notes | |
| Median sale price | Anaheim, CA (16.8%)Newark, NJ (16.4%)New Brunswick, NJ (15.5%)Nassau County, NY (14.6%)San Jose, CA (13%) | Austin, TX (-3.5%)Fort Worth, TX (-2.5%)San Antonio (-1.1%)Portland, OR (-0.9%) | Declined in 4 metros |
| Pending sales | San Jose, CA (12.2%)Columbus, OH (5.8%)Pittsburgh (5.4%)Milwaukee (4%)Seattle (3.6%) | Houston (-16.2%)West Palm Beach, FL (-13.4%)Fort Lauderdale, FL (-11.5%)Atlanta (-10%)Tampa, FL (-9.9%) | Increased in 13 metros |
| New listings | San Jose, CA (39.9%)Phoenix (26.1%)San Diego (23.2%)Miami (20.9%)Denver (17.7%) | Atlanta (-7.9%)Chicago (-5.1%)Newark, NJ (-3.2%)Indianapolis (-2.8%)Minneapolis (-2.1%) | Declined in 7 metros |
To view the full report, including charts, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-home-prices-record-high-mortgage-rates-decline
About Redfin
Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We run the country’s #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home can have our renovations crew fix it up to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we’ve saved customers more than $1.6 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000 people.
Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity Home Loans®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide®, Title Forward® and WalkScore®.
For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin’s press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com. To view Redfin’s press center, click here.
Contacts
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press@redfin.com
