Daily Archives: February 1, 2018

Average U.S. Home Seller Profits At 10-Year High Of $54,000 In Q4 2017

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But Homeowners Staying Put Longer as Average Homeownership Tenure Rises to New High; Kansas City, San Jose, Nashville Led Major Metros in Home Price Appreciation in 2017; All-Cash Purchase Share Increases Following Four Years of Declines

Irvine, CA – Feb. 1, 2018 (PRNewswire) ATTOM Data Solutions, curator of the nation’s largest multi-sourced property database, today released its Year-End and Q4 2017 U.S. Home Sales Report, which shows that home sellers in Q4 2017 realized an average home price gain since purchase of $54,000, up from $53,732 in the previous quarter and up from $47,133 in Q4 2016 to the highest since Q3 2007 — a more than 10-year high.

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That $54,000 average home seller profit represented an average 29.7 percent return on investment compared to the original purchase price, up from 28.8 percent in the previous quarter and up from 26.8 percent in Q4 2016 to the highest average home seller ROI since Q3 2007.

“It’s the most profitable time to sell a home in more than 10 years yet homeowners are staying put longer than we’ve ever seen,” said Daren Blomquist, senior vice president at ATTOM Data Solutions. “While home sellers on the West Coast are realizing the biggest profits, rapid home price appreciation in red state markets is rivaling that of the high-flying coastal markets and producing sizable profits for home sellers in those middle-American markets as well.”

Among 155 metropolitan statistical areas with sufficient historical data, those with the highest average home seller ROI were San Jose, California (90.9 percent ROI); San Francisco, California (73.3 percent); Merced, California (64.6 percent); Seattle, Washington (64.4 percent); and Santa Cruz, California (59.8 percent).

“The biggest story for the greater Seattle housing market in 2017 was persistently low inventory levels which continued to push home prices higher,” said Matthew Gardner, chief economist at Windermere Real Estate, covering the Seattle market. “Sales in King County dropped modestly, but that can be blamed on rising prices which are forcing many buyers to look in neighboring counties to the north and south of Seattle where homes are significantly less expensive. I expect more of the same in 2018; an ongoing shortage of inventory combined with an economy that continues to add jobs means the Seattle market will remain very competitive and increasingly expensive.”

Kansas City, San Jose, Nashville lead major metros in home price appreciation
The U.S. median home price in 2017 was $235,000, up 8.3 percent from 2016 to a new all-time high. Annual home price appreciation in 2017 slowed slightly compared to the 8.5 percent in 2016.

Among 112 metropolitan statistical areas with a population of 200,000 or more and sufficient home price data, those with the biggest year-over-year increase in home prices were Ocala, Florida (up 14.3 percent); Kansas City, Missouri (up 13.4 percent); San Jose, California (up 13.3 percent); Salem, Oregon (up 12.9 percent); and Nashville, Tennessee (up 12.5 percent).

Along with Kansas City, San Jose and Nashville, other major metro areas with a population of at least 1 million with a double-digit percentage increase in home prices in 2017 were Las Vegas (up 12.3 percent); Salt Lake City (up 10.9 percent); Seattle (up 10.8 percent); Orlando (up 10.7 percent); Tampa-St. Petersburg (up 10.7 percent); Portland (up 10.5 percent); and Jacksonville, Florida (up 10.1 percent).

64 of the 112 metros (57 percent) reached new record home price peaks in 2017, including Los Angeles, Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, and San Francisco.

“Southern California closed out 2017 with sales volume increases, providing sellers with a continued positive rate of return growth on their homeowner equity, and we are forecasting a further bullish market in 2018,” said Michael Mahon, president of First Team Real Estate, covering the Southern California market. “Low available listing inventories, greater consumer cash flows from tax plan changes, continued gains in the stock market and continued declines in unemployment, are all contributing factors to high consumer confidence, which we believe will further elevate property values in 2018.”

“Although Ohio continues to work through a long tail of lingering distress, strong buyer demand for both distressed and non-distressed properties pushed home prices to new all-time highs in the majority of markets across the state,” said Matthew Watercutter, senior regional vice president and broker of record for HER Realtors, covering the Dayton, Columbus and Cincinnati markets in Ohio. “That strong buyer demand is evident in the increasing share of all-cash purchases statewide — more than one in three buyers in Ohio purchased with cash in 2017.”

Homeownership tenure at new record high nationwide, down in Denver, Dallas, Santa Cruz
Homeowners who sold in the fourth quarter of 2017 had owned their homes an average of 8.18 years, up from 8.12 years in the previous quarter and up from 7.78 years in Q4 2016 to the longest average home seller tenure as far back as data is available, Q1 2000.

Counter to the national trend, 10 of the 108 metro areas analyzed in the report posted a year-over-year decrease in average home seller tenure: Norwich-New London, Connecticut (down 5 percent); Denver, Colorado (down 3 percent); Bremerton-Silverdale, Washington (down 2 percent); Eugene, Oregon (down 2 percent); Colorado Springs, Colorado (down 2 percent); Provo-Orem, Utah (down 2 percent); Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas (down 1 percent); Manchester-Nashua, New Hampshire (down 1 percent); Chattanooga, Tennessee (down less than 1 percent); and Santa Cruz, California (down less than 1 percent).

Cash sales share increases in 2017 following four years of declines
Nationwide all-cash purchases accounted for 29.0 percent of single family home and condo sales in 2017, up slightly from 28.7 percent in 2016 and still well above the pre-recession average of 20.3 percent between 2000 and 2007. The increase in cash sales share in 2017 followed four consecutive years of annual decreases.

Among 156 metropolitan statistical areas with a population of at least 200,000 and sufficient cash sales data, those with the highest share of all-cash purchases in 2017 were Mobile, Alabama (69.8 percent); Binghamton, New York (60.9 percent); Macon, Georgia (57.7 percent); and Columbus, Georgia (56.2 percent).

U.S. distressed sales share drops to 10-year low, up in 12 states and DC
Distressed home sales — including bank-owned (REO) sales, third-party foreclosure auction sales, and short sales — accounted for 14.0 percent of all U.S. single family home and condo sales in 2017, down from 15.5 percent in 2016 and down from a peak of 38.6 percent in 2011.

Counter to the national trend, the share of distressed sales increased in 2017 in the District of Columbia (up 31 percent) and 12 states, including Delaware (up 21 percent); New Jersey (up 9 percent); Ohio (up 6 percent); Louisiana (up 19 percent); and New York (up 10 percent).

Among 203 metropolitan statistical areas with a population of at least 200,000 those with the highest share of distressed sales in 2017 were Atlantic City, New Jersey (39.4 percent); Mobile, Alabama (32.0 percent); Montgomery, Alabama (29.9 percent); Fayetteville, North Carolina (27.3 percent); and Akron, Ohio (25.3 percent).

Among 52 metropolitan statistical areas with a population of at least 1 million, those with the highest share of distressed sales in 2017 were Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (23.8 percent); Baltimore, Maryland (23.1 percent); Cleveland, Ohio (22.8 percent); Memphis, Tennessee (20.4 percent); and Columbus, Ohio (20.2 percent).

Highest share of institutional investor purchases in Memphis
Institutional investors nationwide accounted for 2.6 percent of all single family home and condo sales in 2017, down from 3.0 percent in 2016.

Among 182 metropolitan statistical areas with a population of at least 200,000 and sufficient institutional investor sales data, those with the highest share of institutional investor sales in 2017 were Memphis, Tennessee (10.0 percent); Columbus, Georgia (8.6 percent); Birmingham, Alabama (8.3 percent); Killeen, Texas (7.3 percent); and Macon, Georgia (7.3 percent).

FHA buyer share at lowest level since 2014
Nationwide buyers using Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loans accounted for 13.6 percent of all single family home and condo purchases in 2017, down from 15.4 percent in 2016 to the lowest level since 2014 but still well above the pre-recession average of 7.0 percent between 2000 and 2007.

Among 182 metropolitan statistical areas with a population of at least 200,000 and sufficient FHA buyer data, those with the highest share of FHA buyers in 2017 were El Paso, Texas (29.4 percent); Beaumont-Port Arthur, Texas (27.9 percent); Merced, California (27.2 percent); Elkhart-Goshen, Indiana (26.3 percent); and Salt Lake City, Utah (24.4 percent).

Report methodology
The ATTOM Data Solutions U.S. Home Sales Report provides percentages of distressed sales and all sales that are sold to investors, institutional investors and cash buyers, a state and metropolitan statistical area. Data is also available at the county and zip code level upon request. The data is derived from recorded sales deeds, foreclosure filings and loan data. Statistics for previous quarters are revised when each new report is issued as more deed data becomes available for those previous months. Median sales price is calculated based on the sales price on the publicly recorded sales deed when available. If no sales price is recorded then the purchase loan amount is used to calculate median price, and if no purchase loan amount is available, the property’s Automated Valuation Model (AVM) at time of sale is used to calculate the median price.

Definitions
All-cash purchases: sales where no loan is recorded at the time of sale and where ATTOM has coverage of loan data.

Institutional investor purchases: residential property sales to non-lending entities that purchased at least 10 properties in a calendar year.

REO sale: a sale of a property that occurs while the property is actively bank owned (REO).

Third-party foreclosure auction sale: a sale of a property that occurs at the public foreclosure auction (trustee’s sale or sheriff’s sale) in which the property is sold to a third-party buyer and does not transfer back to the foreclosing bank.

Short sale: a sale of a property where the sale price is less than (short) the combined amount of loans secured by the property.

Data Licensing and Custom Report Order
Investors, businesses and government institutions can contact ATTOM Data Solutions to purchase the full dataset behind the Year-End U.S. Foreclosure Market Report, including data at the state, metro, county and zip code level. The data is also available via bulk license or in customized reports. For more information contact our Data Solutions Department at 800.462.5193 or datasales@attomdata.com.

About ATTOM Data Solutions
ATTOM Data Solutions is the curator of the ATTOM Data Warehouse, a multi-sourced national property database that blends property tax, deed, mortgage, foreclosure, environmental risk, natural hazard, health hazards, neighborhood characteristics and other property characteristic data for more than 150 million U.S. residential and commercial properties. The ATTOM Data Warehouse delivers actionable data to businesses, consumers, government agencies, universities, policymakers and the media in multiple ways, including bulk file licenses, APIs and customized reports.

ATTOM Data Solutions also powers consumer websites designed to promote real estate transparency: RealtyTrac.com is a property search and research portal for foreclosures and other off-market properties; Homefacts.com is a neighborhood research portal providing hyperlocal risks and amenities information; HomeDisclosure.com produces detailed property pre-diligence reports.

ATTOM Data and its associated brands are cited by thousands of media outlets each month, including frequent mentions on CBS Evening News, The Today Show, CNBC, CNN, FOX News, PBS NewsHour and in The New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, and USA TODAY.

Media Contact:

Christine Stricker
(949) 748-8428
christine.stricker@attomdata.com

Data and Report Licensing:
(949) 502-8313
datareports@attomdata.com

Pending Home Sales Tick Up 0.5 Percent in December

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Washington, D.C. – January 31, 2018 (nar.realtor) Pending home sales were up slightly in December for the third consecutive month, according to the National Association of Realtors®. In 2018, existing-home sales and price growth are forecast to moderate, primarily because of the new tax law’s expected impact in high-cost housing markets.

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The Pending Home Sales Index,* www.nar.realtor/pending-home-sales, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, moved higher 0.5 percent to 110.1 in December from an upwardly revised 109.6 in November. With last month’s modest increase, the index is now 0.5 percent above a year ago.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says pending sales edged up in December and reached their highest level since last March (111.3). “Another month of modest increases in contract activity is evidence that the housing market has a small trace of momentum at the start of 2018,” he said. “Jobs are plentiful, wages are finally climbing and the prospect of higher mortgage rates are perhaps encouraging more aspiring buyers to begin their search now.”

Added Yun, “Sadly, these positive indicators may not lead to a stronger sales pace. Buyers throughout the country continue to be hamstrung by record low supply levels that are pushing up prices — especially at the lower end of the market.”

The uninterrupted supply and demand imbalances throughout the country fueled price appreciation to 5.8 percent in 2017, which was the sixth straight year of gains at or above 5 percent(1). While tight inventories are still expected to put upward pressure on prices in most areas this year, Yun expects overall price growth to shrink, with some states even experiencing a decline, because of the negative effect the changes to the mortgage interest deduction and state and local deductions under the new tax law. To see NAR’s 2018 state forecast for a look at home price projections click here.

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“In the short term, the larger paychecks most households will see from the tax cuts may give prospective buyers the ability to save for a larger down payment this year, and the healthy labor economy and job market will continue to boost demand,” said Yun. “However, there’s no doubt the nation’s most expensive markets with high property taxes are going to be adversely impacted by the tax law.”

Added Yun, “Just how severe is still uncertain, but with homeownership now less incentivized in the tax code, sellers in the upper end of the market may have to adjust their price expectations if they want to trade down or move to less expensive areas. This could in turn lead to both a decrease in sales and home values.”

After expanding 1.1 percent in 2017 to 5.51 million, Yun does anticipate a slight increase (0.5 percent) in existing sales this year (5.54 million). Single-family housing starts are forecast to jump 13.3 percent to 961,000, which will push new home sales up 15.3 percent to 701,000 (608,000 in 2016).

The PHSI in the Northeast dipped 5.1 percent to 93.9 in December, and is now 2.7 percent below a year ago. In the Midwest the index decreased 0.3 percent to 105.0 in December, but is still 0.3 percent higher than December 2016.

Pending home sales in the South grew 2.6 percent to an index of 126.9 in December and are now 4.0 percent higher than last December. The index in the West rose 1.5 percent in December to 101.7, but is still 3.1 percent below a year ago.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

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1. From 2012-2017, the median sales price of existing homes has increased the following amounts: 6.6 percent; 11.4 percent; 5.8 percent; 6.5 percent; 5.1 percent and 5.8 percent.

* The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months.

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined. By coincidence, the volume of existing-home sales in 2001 fell within the range of 5.0 to 5.5 million, which is considered normal for the current U.S. population.

NOTE: NAR’s January Housing Minute video will be shared later today at 2:00 p.m., the metropolitan area price report for the fourth quarter of 2017 will be released February 13, Existing-Home Sales for January will be reported February 21, and the next Pending Home Sales Index will be February 28; all release times are 10:00 a.m. ET.

Media Contact:

Adam DeSanctis
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