Daily Archives: May 22, 2018

Realtors® Say Commercial Market on the Upswing, Construction Activity Sluggish

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Washington, D.C. – May 18, 2018 (nar.realtor) A strengthening economy and job growth nearing historic levels have given Realtors® confidence in future commercial real estate market conditions, according to speakers at a commercial real estate forum during the 2018 REALTORS® Legislative Meetings & Trade Expo.

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Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors®, led a panel discussion about the economic forces shaping commercial real estate markets and expressed that a favorable environment will lead to a rise in demand for commercial spaces in 2018 and 2019.

“Even after 90 straight months of job gains, the economy looks likely to expand over the next two years with job openings at the highest level in nearly 10 years. The gross domestic product should experience a 2.7 percent growth, therefore the demand for commercial spaces is expected to rise this year and next year,” Yun said.

One area of concern for Realtors® is the lack of construction, which is hindering inventory. Yun pointed out that with subdued construction activity in commercial real estate in recent years, vacancy rates will continue to fall and rents will rise. “Concerns are growing around commercial property prices, which have dramatically shot up by 85 percent in the past seven years. With interest rates recently rising, commercial prices could decline and commercial investment sales may see an additional dip, though at a modest pace,” he said.

Most commercial sectors are on the upswing, according to Yun. Office demand is strong because of rising employment and moderate office supply, which will lead to modest vacancy rates, mainly due to the expansion of telecommuting. Increased trade and rising e-commerce has the industrial sector on a hot streak, with a growth of 20 percent, while retail sales are growing at 5 percent and completions remain low, with rents experiencing solid growth.

Two panelists joined Yun to discuss trends in multi-family demand and the impact the global economy could have on commercial real estate over the next year. Richard Barkham, global chief economist at CBRE, gave his perspective on global economic trends and his outlook for commercial real estate.

“Commercial real estate is buoyant these days, and first quarter leasing is through the roof. Interest rates may turn up, but slowly over the next few years, and inflation remains weak, as wage growth has failed to gain traction. Relatively, supply is in line with demand and cap rates have hit a bottom and remain extremely firm,” Barkham said.

Danielle Hale, chief economist at realtor.com® also shared highlights from her outlook for multi-family households.

“Apartment demand remains robust and the sector is seeing growth, especially in mixed-use urban development, as many consumers prefer a neighborhood close to work and entertainment,” said Hale. “Millennials are shifting into the largest generation of homeowners and will be a huge boom to the multi-family market in recent years. Multi-family building has seen the largest four-year stretch in supply since the 1980s and vacancy rates are trending at the lowest in years.”

For more commercial real estate research, visit www.nar.realtor.

The National Association of Realtors® is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

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Cole Henry
(202) 383-1290
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Housing Economists Call for Increase in Home Construction

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Washington, D.C. – May 18, 2018 (nar.realtor) An increase in housing supply is crucial to the health and sustainability of the real estate market and the economy, according to speakers at a session organized by the REALTOR® University Richard J. Rosenthal Center for Real Estate Studies during the 2018 REALTORS® Legislative Meetings & Trade Expo.

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The session, “Outlook for Home Prices and Residential Construction,” focused on rapidly rising home prices, tight home inventories and whether or not the country is in the middle of a bubble. All three of the panelists agreed that more new home construction is necessary to meet rising demand from increasing household formation and curtail the affordability crisis.

“Young adults of today are forming households at a much lower rate than previous generations, and high housing costs contribute to that,” said Len Kiefer, deputy chief economist for Freddie Mac. According to Kiefer, one third to three quarters of U.S. markets have an elevated home price-to-income ratio and many major markets, such as Austin, Miami and Portland, are getting close to surpassing their 2008 ratio.

“Are we in a bubble? No, not currently,” said Kiefer. He outlined ways the current market is different from the one leading to the recession, such as no signs of over leveraging and the very low ratios of household income to debt. The aggregate risk of mortgages in the U.S. is also comparatively low “Those risky loans that contribute to the last bubble have largely gone away in the current market,” he said.

However, the panelists were quick to point out that just because we are not currently in a bubble does not mean we won’t enter one. If supply and demand continues to become more and more out of balance, it could trigger a fast price growth, said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “A best-case scenario is largely dependent on new home construction. An increase in inventory will provide some much-needed release,” he said.

Ken Simonson, chief economist for Associated General Contractors of America, discussed how low employment in construction is also contributing to the lag in new home construction, despite high demand.

“Construction saw a 30 percent drop in employment in the previous decade, the largest drop of any industry. They also began laying people off a year before the recession began and did not start hiring again until much later than other industries,” said Simonson.

This has led to difficulty in bringing skilled laborers back to the industry. “Construction companies are having to hire people with no experience and spend more time and money on training,” he said.

Material costs have also contributed to the low rate of construction. The price of diesel fuel, which is used in earth moving vehicles and in transporting materials, has risen 42 percent since 2017. The cost of lumber and plywood has also increased 11 percent, copper and brass mill shapes have risen 10 percent and ready-mix concrete has risen 7 percent.

The National Association of Realtors® is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

Media Contact:

Jane Dollinger
(202) 383-1042
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