Inventory Declines Continue to Moderate; Number of Homes for Sale in June Down Just 6% Compared to June 2017

Seattle, WA – July 24, 2018 (PRNewswire) (NASDAQ: RDFN) U.S. home-sale prices increased 5.7 percent year over year in June to a median of $312,700, according to Redfin (www.redfin.com), the next-generation real estate brokerage. This is the lowest price growth since December 2016. At the same time, the number of homes for sale in June was down just 6 percent year over year, which continues the gradual easing of year-over-year inventory declines since January of this year.

Homes sales fell 3.3 percent in June compared to June 2017. However, it’s important to note this is partially due to the fact that June 2017 had five Thursdays, a common day for home purchases to close, compared to this June, which had just four. If June 2017 did not have the fifth Thursday, year-over-year homes sales would be up by 1.2 percent.

Homes also sold at their fastest pace on record, a median 34 days in June, unchanged from May and three days faster than last year.

Notably, in what have been the most competitive places for homebuyers, inventory is increasing, providing welcome relief for some buyers. The number of homes for sale in June increased by double digits in Portland (31.6%), San Jose, CA (11.9%) and Seattle (24.2%). These markets also experienced sales declines of 9.6 percent, 16.3 percent and 10.1 percent, respectively.

“The affordability crisis may have reached a breaking point in Portland, San Jose and Seattle,” said Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman. “After 75 straight months of price increases in these markets that far outpaced wage growth, homebuyers are now becoming selective about which homes to buy, and at what price. The homes that did sell in June still sold quickly, but buyers were significantly more likely to reject homes that were less desirable or aggressively priced by the seller: the percentage of listings in these markets that sold within two weeks declined in June from 61 percent to 52 percent, and the fraction of listings that dropped their price increased from 31 percent to 33 percent.”

“We’ve seen similar signs of buyer fatigue in the past, especially at this point in the season,” Kelman continued. “But in this case the lull has lasted a bit longer and affected more markets than in the recent past. It’ll be interesting to see whether buyers adjust to the latest price increase and come back in force this fall, or if instead we see these markets shift more in favor of buyers.”

“Buyers are taking advantage of the inventory windfall,” said Shoshana Godwin, a Redfin agent in Seattle. “A handful of my buyers who had been sitting out the market for over a year have, over the last two months, gotten homes under contract. We targeted homes that were still on the market after their offer review date and were able to include most offer contingencies, including the inspection. That’s been virtually unheard of in Seattle for the past few years.”

Redfin will be paying close attention in the coming months to the data and to its agents’ observations to see if the trends in Portland, San Jose and Seattle continue, progress or show up in other markets.

Other June Highlights:

Speed

• Competitiveness eased in Seattle in terms of the portion of homes selling above asking, down 7.3 percentage points year over year from 62.1% to 54.8%. However, it was still the fastest market, with a sale pending on half of all homes in just seven days, keeping pace with June of last year. It’s important to note that the homes that sold, sold quickly. But more homes stayed on the market, hence the rise in inventory. Denver, Omaha, NE, Tacoma, WA and Grand Rapids, MI were the next fastest markets with eight median days on market each.

Prices

• San Jose, CA had the nation’s highest price growth, rising 22.4% since last year to $1,225,000. Las Vegas had the second highest growth at 12.8% year-over-year price growth, followed by Oakland, CA (11.9%), Cincinnati (11.4%), and Seattle (11.4%).
• No metros saw price declines in June.

Sales

• Just three out of 73 metros saw double-digit sales growth compared to last year. Camden, NJ led the nation in year-over-year sales growth, up 52.4%, followed by Pittsburgh, PA, up 10.4%. Long Island, NY rounded out the top three with sales up 10% from a year ago.
• Oxnard, CA saw the largest decline in sales since last year, falling 25.6%. Home sales in San Jose, CA and West Palm Beach, FL declined by 16.3% and 15.1%, respectively.

Inventory

• Baton Rouge, LA had the highest increase in the number of homes for sale, up 51.1% year over year, followed by Portland, OR (31.6%) and Seattle (24.2%).
• Rochester, NY had the largest decrease in overall inventory, falling 33.3% since last June. Indianapolis (-30.3%), Buffalo, NY (-30.0%), and Milwaukee (-24.2%) also saw far fewer homes available on the market than a year ago.

Redfin Estimate

• The median list price-to-Redfin Estimate ratio was 93.2% in San Francisco, the lowest of any market. This indicates the typical home for sale in June was listed at a price below its estimated value. Only 6.3% of homes in San Francisco were listed for more than their Redfin Estimate.
• Conversely, the median list price-to-Redfin Estimate ratio was 102.3% in Miami, FL and 102.1% in West Palm Beach, FL, which means sellers are listing their homes for more than the estimated value in those metro areas. In Miami, FL, 83.4% of homes were listed above their Redfin Estimate, the highest percentage of any metro.

To read the full report, complete with charts and market-level data, please visit: www.redfin.com.

About Redfin

Redfin (www.redfin.com) is the next-generation real estate brokerage, combining its own full-service agents with modern technology to redefine real estate in the consumer’s favor. Founded by software engineers, Redfin has the country’s #1 brokerage website and offers a host of online tools to consumers, including the Redfin Estimate, the automated home-value estimate with the industry’s lowest published error rate for listed homes. Homebuyers and sellers enjoy a full-service, technology-powered experience from Redfin real estate agents, while saving thousands in commissions. Redfin serves more than 80 major metro areas across the U.S. The company has closed more than $60 billion in home sales.