Redfin: Home Sales Fell 8.1 Percent in September, Third Month in a Row of Declining Sales

Lack of Inventory Stifling the Market Despite Still-Strong Demand

Seattle, WA – October 19th, 2017 (BUSINESS WIRE) (NASDAQ: RDFN) — Home sales fell 8.1 percent compared to last year, the largest decline posted since July 2016, according to Redfin (www.redfin.com), the next-generation real estate brokerage. Meanwhile price-growth is strong, up 7.6 percent in September to a national median sale price of $288,000 across all markets Redfin serves.

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Nationally, the number of homes for sale plunged 10.9 percent, continuing the 24-month streak of declining inventory. The number of new listings in September fell 7.7 percent from a year ago, leaving 3.3 months of supply. Less than six months of supply signals the market is tilted in favor of sellers.

The median days on market ticked up to 42 in September from 39 in August. The market was still five days faster than last September. The average sale-to-list price ratio was 98.4 percent and 23.6 percent of homes sold above their list price in September.

Weather took its toll in several markets, with Hurricane Irma in Florida and Harvey in Houston. Real estate activity was put on hold as communities dealt with the storm and its aftermath. As a result of hurricane-related disruptions, Redfin expects real estate activity to be more volatile than normal in these markets.

Home sales in Miami, Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach, Jacksonville, Orlando and Tampa all declined by more than 15 percent compared to last September. Miami sales took the biggest hit with a year-over-year decline of 38.4 percent. In Houston, home sales tumbled more than 25 percent in August, but recovered in September, and were essentially flat (0.2%) compared to a year ago.

“The housing market is running on fumes due to low inventory,” said Redfin chief economist Nela Richardson. “September marks the first time since 2014 that we’ve seen three consecutive months of year-over-year sales declines. The inventory shortage is most severe for affordable homes. There has not been an increase in homes priced under $260,000 in two years.”

In September, new listings from homes priced in the lowest tercile of the market (under $260,000) were down 14.9 percent year over year. Inventory for the middle tercile of new listings, priced between $260,000 and $470,000, was down 4.7 percent year over year. The only inventory increase was for listings above $470,000, up 2.3 percent from a year ago.

“The good news is that so far markets affected by Hurricane Harvey, like Houston, are rebounding in terms of sales quickly,” said Richardson. “That bodes well for Floridian markets.”

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Other September Highlights

Competition

  • Seattle, WA was the fastest market, with nearly half of all homes pending sale in just 10 days, down from 12 days from a year earlier. San Jose, CA, Boston, MA, and Portland, OR were the next fastest markets at 14 median days on market, followed by Oakland, CA (15).
  • The most competitive market in September was San Francisco, CA where 71.7% of homes sold above list price, followed by 71.6% in San Jose, CA, 64.6% in Oakland, CA, 47.7% in Seattle, WA and 42.7% in Tacoma, WA.

Prices

  • San Jose, CA had the nation’s highest price growth, rising 16.3% since last year to a median of $1 million. Tucson, AZ had the second highest growth at 15.8% year-over-year price growth, followed by Tacoma, WA (14.5%), Las Vegas, NV (14%) and Seattle, WA (13.3%).
  • Just 3 metros saw price declines in September: Camden, NJ (-6.4%), Baltimore, MD (-3.1%) and Newark, NJ (-2.7%).

Sales

  • Home sales in Miami, FL and Fort Lauderdale, FL declined by 38.4% and 32.4%, respectively, as Hurricane Irma ground the market to a halt.
  • 12 of 74 metros saw sales increase from last year. Camden, NJ led the nation in year-over-year sales growth, up 8.8%, followed by Honolulu, HI, up 7.8%. Detroit, MI rounded out the top three with sales up 4.8% from a year ago.

Inventory

  • San Jose, CA had the largest decrease in overall inventory, falling 51.7% since last September. Rochester, NY (-27.3%), Buffalo, NY (-26.9%) and Oakland, CA (-26.5%) also saw far fewer homes available on the market than a year ago.
  • Salt Lake City, UT had the highest increase in the number of homes for sale, up 39.6% year over year, followed by Baton Rouge, LA (34.0%) and Tulsa, OK (13.8%).

To read the full report, complete with data and charts, click here.

About Redfin

Redfin (www.redfin.com) is the next-generation real estate brokerage, combining its own full-service agents with modern technology to redefine real estate in the consumer’s favor. Founded by software engineers, Redfin has the country’s #1 brokerage website and offers a host of online tools to consumers, including the Redfin Estimate, the automated home-value estimate with the industry’s lowest published error rate for listed homes. Homebuyers and sellers enjoy a full-service, technology-powered experience from Redfin real estate agents, while saving thousands in commissions. Redfin serves more than 80 major metro areas across the U.S. The company has closed more than $50 billion in home sales.

Contacts

Alina Ptaszynski
(206) 588-6863
press@redfin.com

Redfin Housing Demand Index Virtually Flat from July to August Due to Continued Inventory Shortage

The number of Redfin customers touring and writing offers was basically even from July to August, but increased year over year

Seattle, WA – September 28th 2017 (BUSINESS WIRE) (NASDAQ:RDFN) — The Redfin Housing Demand Index remained virtually flat, up slightly from 126 in July to 127 in August, according to Redfin (www.redfin.com), the next-generation real estate brokerage. Still, the Demand Index increased 27.7 percent year over year. The Demand Index is adjusted for Redfin’s market share growth.

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The Demand Index is based on thousands of Redfin customers requesting home tours and writing offers. A level of 100 represents the historical average for the three-year period from January 2013 to December 2015.

Across the 15 metros covered by the Demand Index, there were 13.9 percent fewer homes for sale in August than there were a year prior, and there was a 2.7 percent decline in new listings. August marked the 27th consecutive month of year-over-year inventory declines in these markets.

“High consumer confidence and low interest rates have powered homebuyer demand, but too-low inventory has constrained home sales all year,” said Redfin chief economist Nela Richardson. “The Federal Reserve is now setting the stage for a slow, steady increase in mortgage rates in October by beginning to sell its mortgage portfolio. Fall buyers are likely to face slightly higher financing costs in addition to strong price growth.”

The seasonally adjusted number of buyers requesting home tours and writing offers remained flat from July to August, decreasing 0.8 percent and increasing 0.1 percent respectively. Compared to last year, 42.3 percent more buyers requested tours in August and 8.2 percent more wrote offers.

At the metro level, Oakland had the largest Demand Index increase in August, up 29 percent from July and 43 percent year over year. Inventory was down 30 percent year over year and new listings fell 5.3 percent.

“August has traditionally been one of the slowest months in Oakland for homebuyer activity as people go on vacation and finish up their family activities before the kids head back to school,” said Redfin Oakland agent Tom Hendershot. “This year, August demand has really ramped up compared to July, and we expect September to be a very active month as long as more new inventory hits the market.”

To read the full report, including metro-level demand data and charts, click here.

About Redfin

Redfin (www.redfin.com) is the next-generation real estate brokerage, combining its own full-service agents with modern technology to redefine real estate in the consumer’s favor. Founded by software engineers, Redfin has the country’s #1 brokerage website and offers a host of online tools to consumers, including the Redfin Estimate, the automated home-value estimate with the industry’s lowest published error rate for listed homes. Homebuyers and sellers enjoy a full-service, technology-powered experience from Redfin real estate agents, while saving thousands in commissions. Redfin serves more than 80 major metro areas across the U.S. The company has closed more than $50 billion in home sales.

Contacts

Redfin Journalist Services:
Jon Whitely
(206) 588-6863
press@redfin.com

Redfin: Migration Patterns Show More People Leaving Politically Blue Counties

People are moving to purple and red counties, where homes are more affordable

Seattle, WA – October 13, 2017 (BUSINESS WIRE) (NASDAQ: RDFN) — In the first half of 2017, 7.4 percent more people moved out of politically blue counties than to them, according to a new analysis from Redfin (www.redfin.com), the next-generation real estate brokerage. Red counties saw about 1 percent more people moving in than moving out. Purple counties, where there’s a more balanced share of Democrats and Republicans, saw 3.9 percent more migrants moving in than out.

The trend is even more pronounced in swing states, which saw blue counties lose 9.2 percent more people than they gained, while Republican counties gained 2.3 percent more than they lost.

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Redfin analyzed Redfin.com user search data, comparing where prospective homebuyers currently live to where they are searching for a home to buy. Redfin’s user data covers more than 72 percent of the voting age population and is concentrated in urban metropolises, which gives the company a specific and recent look at where residents of blue counties are looking to move. Counties were classified as “blue” if the Democratic candidate for 2016 won by more than 20 percentage points and vice versa for “red” counties.

High housing costs in blue counties are driving this trend. Nationwide, the average home in a blue county costs around $360,000—more than 62 percent more than that of homes in red counties ($223,000).

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“As blue counties are becoming increasingly less affordable, we see a great number of residents moving to red counties where they can afford the lifestyle they want,” said Redfin chief economist Nela Richardson. “At Redfin, we see this as a sign of hope for a less divided country, where people with differing views gain better understanding and tolerance of each other through sheer proximity.”

However, politics can be a key factor for people in deciding where to move. A Redfin survey found that 41 percent of recent homebuyers reported hesitations about moving to a place where most people have political views different from their own. In contrast, fewer than one in 10 respondents was enthusiastic about moving to a different political climate, with the remaining half neutral.

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While the evidence that people will continue to self-sort by political beliefs is strong, Redfin contends that the housing affordability crisis in the bluest counties is unprecedented. With no sign of a drastic drop in prices anytime soon, there’s an argument that many more people, regardless of politics, will move to where they can buy a comfortable home.

To read the report, complete with data, interactive visuals and methodology, click here.

About Redfin

Redfin (www.redfin.com) is the next-generation real estate brokerage, combining its own full-service agents with modern technology to redefine real estate in the consumer’s favor. Founded by software engineers, Redfin has the country’s #1 brokerage website and offers a host of online tools to consumers, including the Redfin Estimate, the automated home-value estimate with the industry’s lowest published error rate for listed homes. Homebuyers and sellers enjoy a full-service, technology-powered experience from Redfin real estate agents, while saving thousands in commissions. Redfin serves more than 80 major metro areas across the U.S. The company has closed more than $50 billion in home sales.

Contacts

Redfin Journalist Services:
Alina Ptaszynski
(206) 588-6863
press@redfin.com

Redfin: Home Prices Surged 7.7 Percent in August as Inventory Fell 12.4 Percent

Hurricane Harvey sent Houston home sales down 29 percent while new listings tumbled 12 percent

Seattle, WA – September 14, 2017 (BUSINESS WIRE) (NASDAQ: RDFN) — Home prices in August surged 7.7 percent, the largest year-over-year price gain since May 2015, according to Redfin (www.redfin.com), the next-generation real estate brokerage. The national median sale price was $293,000, flat from July. None of the metro areas Redfin tracks saw prices decline in August. The median value of off-market homes in August was $251,000, as measured by the Redfin Estimate, up 0.7 percent from July.

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Sales in August fell 5.5 percent compared to last year, the largest decline posted since July 2016. This follows the 5 percent decline posted in July by the Redfin Housing Demand Index.

The number of homes for sale plunged 12.4 percent, the largest year-over-year decline in a 23-month streak of declining inventory. The number of new listings in August was down 1 percent from a year ago, leaving just 2.8 months of supply. Less than six months of supply signals the market is tilted in favor of sellers.

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Nearly a quarter (24.9%) of homes sold above their list price. The average sale-to-list ratio was 98.5 percent. The typical home that sold in August went under contract in 39 days, two days longer than July’s record-setting pace, typical of a seasonal slowdown.

“The real estate market still favors sellers, with strong demand and rising prices, but perhaps less so now than earlier in the year,” said Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman. “Newly listed homes are selling faster in 2017 than in 2016, but whereas in April the market was nine days faster than the 2016 market, in August it was five; the gap between 2016 and 2017 is narrowing slightly. Normally such differences wouldn’t be worth mentioning, but Redfin managers of coastal markets where demand has been strongest are now reporting that some buyers are stepping back from higher prices.”

Hurricane Harvey’s Impact on the Houston Real Estate Market

Hurricane Harvey sent Houston sales falling 29 percent year over year, as buyers backed out of purchasing flooded homes and home settlements were delayed awaiting required reinspections. Flood damage is limiting the number of homes being listed for sale. New listings declined 12.2 percent compared to last August. Despite the decline in new listings, inventory was still up 5.7 percent compared to last year.

While most real estate activity halted for a few days immediately following the storm, Redfin agents reported rebounding buyer interest, tours and offers in the final days of the month.

Other August Data

Competition

  • Seattle, WA was the fastest market, with nearly half of all homes pending sale in just 8 days, down from 10 days from a year earlier. Portland, OR and Denver, CO were the next fastest markets with 11 and 12 median days on market, followed by Boston, MA (13) and Tacoma, WA (13).
  • The most competitive market in August was San Jose, CA where 73.8% of homes sold above list price, followed by 72.3% in San Francisco, CA, 67.3% in Oakland, CA, 51.3% in Seattle, WA, and 48.1% in Tacoma, WA.

Prices

  • Seattle, WA had the nation’s highest price growth, rising 16% since last year to $522,000. Fort Lauderdale, FL had the second highest growth at 15.6% year-over-year price growth, followed by Cincinnati, OH (14.5%), Las Vegas, NV (14%), and San Jose, CA (13.4%).
  • No metros saw a price decline in August.
  • Detroit, MI had the highest month-over-month increase in the value of off-market homes up 3%, as measured by the Redfin Estimate; this mirrored price growth for on-market homes, up 5.3% year over year.

Sales

  • Columbia, SC saw the largest decline in sales since last year, falling 93.2%. Home sales in Newark, NJ and Houston, TX declined by 75.3% and 29.1%, respectively.
  • 4 out of 75 metros saw sales surge by double digits from last year. Camden, NJ led the nation in year-over-year sales growth, up 22%, followed by Baton Rouge, LA, up 21%. Baltimore, MD rounded out the top three with sales up 19% from a year ago.

Inventory

  • San Jose, CA had the largest decrease in overall inventory, falling 49.9% since last August. Oakland, CA (-31.8%), San Francisco, CA (-30.9%), and Tampa, FL (-26.8%) also saw far fewer homes available on the market than a year ago.
  • Austin, TX had the highest increase in the number of homes for sale, up 13.9% year over year, followed by New Orleans, LA (8.3%) and Houston, TX (5.7%).

Redfin Estimate

  • The median list price-to-Redfin Estimate ratio was 94.1% in San Francisco, the lowest of any market. This indicates the typical home for sale in August was listed at a price 5.9% below its estimated value. Only 8.9% of homes in San Francisco were listed for more than their Redfin Estimate.
  • Conversely, the median list price-to-Redfin Estimate ratio was 103% in Miami, FL and 102.6% in West Palm Beach, which means sellers are listing their homes for more than the estimated value in those metro areas. In Miami, 64.6% of homes were listed above their Redfin Estimate.

To read the full report, complete with data and charts, click here.

About Redfin

Redfin (www.redfin.com) is the next-generation real estate brokerage, combining its own full-service agents with modern technology to redefine real estate in the consumer’s favor. Founded by software engineers, Redfin has the country’s #1 brokerage website and offers a host of online tools to consumers, including the Redfin Estimate, the automated home-value estimate with the industry’s lowest published error rate for listed homes. Homebuyers and sellers enjoy a full-service, technology-powered experience from Redfin real estate agents, while saving thousands in commissions. Redfin serves more than 80 major metro areas across the U.S. The company has closed more than $50 billion in home sales.

Contacts

Redfin Journalist Services:
Alina Ptaszynski
(206) 588-6863
press@redfin.com

Redfin Housing Demand Index Dipped from June to July as Inventory Shortage Deepened

The number of Redfin customers requesting home tours and writing offers fell in July, but is still up by double digits year over year

Seattle, WA – September 1, 2017 (redfin.com) (NASDAQ: RDFN) The Redfin Housing Demand Index fell 5.0 percent from its all-time high of 130 in June to 124 in July, according to Redfin (www.redfin.com), the next-generation real estate brokerage. Still, the Demand Index was up 29.7 percent year over year. The Demand Index is adjusted for Redfin’s market share growth.

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The Demand Index is based on thousands of Redfin customers requesting home tours and writing offers. A level of 100 represents the historical average for the three-year period from January 2013 to December 2015. The underlying methodology to the Redfin Housing Demand Index was revised in August 2017 to improve the way it accounts for the company’s market share.

Across the 15 metros covered by the Demand Index, there were 13.9 percent fewer homes for sale in July than there were a year prior, and there was a 5.9 percent decline in new listings. July marked the 26th consecutive month of year-over-year inventory declines.

“Buyer demand has been stronger so far in 2017 than last year, but the combination of low inventory and rising home prices is taking its toll heading into the fall,” said Redfin chief economist Nela Richardson. “Sellers are still in control of the market, but their advantage is narrowing as buyers are becoming less willing or able to chase escalating prices.”

The seasonally adjusted number of buyers requesting home tours fell 3.3 percent from June to July, while the number of those who wrote offers dropped 11.0 percent. Compared to last year, 35.3 percent more buyers requested tours in July and 21.0 percent more wrote offers.

To read the full report, including metro-level demand data and charts, click here.

About Redfin

Redfin (www.redfin.com) is the next-generation real estate brokerage, combining its own full-service agents with modern technology to redefine real estate in the consumer’s favor. Founded by software engineers, Redfin has the country’s #1 brokerage website and offers a host of online tools to consumers, including the Redfin Estimate, the automated home-value estimate with the industry’s lowest published error rate for listed homes. Homebuyers and sellers enjoy a full-service, technology-powered experience from Redfin real estate agents, while saving thousands in commissions. Redfin serves more than 80 major metro areas across the U.S. The company has closed more than $50 billion in home sales.

Contact Redfin

Redfin Journalist Services:
Jon Whitely
(206) 588-6863
press@redfin.com

Survey: One in Three Recent Homebuyers Made an Offer Sight-Unseen, Up from Nearly One in Five a Year Ago

Forty-one percent of buyers would be hesitant to move to a place where people have different political views

More than half of Arab, Asian and Latino respondents said immigration orders influenced their home-buying or selling plans, according to a new Redfin-commissioned survey

Seattle, WA – June 28, 2017 (BUSINESS WIRE) Thirty-three percent of people who bought a home in the last year made an offer without first seeing the home in person, according to a May survey of 3,350 homebuyers and sellers commissioned by Redfin (www.redfin.com), the next-generation real estate brokerage. In a similar survey last year, 19 percent of buyers said they had offered sight-unseen. Among recent Millennial homebuyers, 41 percent had done so.

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Five other major findings include:

1. Affordable housing was the most prevalent economic concern, cited by 40 percent of buyers; rising prices caused 21 percent to search in other metro areas where homes cost less.

2. Forty-one percent of buyers would be hesitant to move to a place where people have different political views from their own.

3. Orders restricting immigration influenced the buying and selling plans of 52 percent of Arab, Asian and Latino respondents; 45 percent of minority buyers felt that sellers and their agents may have been less eager to work with them because of their race.

4. Buyers remain resilient amid the prospect of rising mortgage rates. Just 5 percent said they’d cancel their plans if rates surpass 5 percent.

5. Fifty-one percent of buyers and 46 percent of sellers saved money on real estate commissions.

“Millennials are already starting to set trends in the real estate industry,” said Redfin chief economist Nela Richardson. “They are three times more likely than Baby Boomers to make an offer sight-unseen, and they’re more likely than older buyers and sellers to negotiate commission savings. Despite their tech-savvy confidence, politics are seeping into Millennials’ decisions about where to live; nearly half cited hesitations about moving to a place where their neighbors wouldn’t share their views.”

For the full report including more findings, charts and a detailed methodology, visit here.

About Redfin

Redfin (www.redfin.com) is the next-generation real estate brokerage, combining its own full-service agents with modern technology to redefine real estate in the consumer’s favor. Founded by software engineers, Redfin has the country’s #1 brokerage website and offers a host of online tools to consumers, including the Redfin Estimate, the automated home-value estimate with the industry’s lowest published error rate for listed homes. Homebuyers and sellers enjoy a full-service, technology-powered experience from Redfin real estate agents, while saving thousands in commissions. Redfin serves more than 80 major metro areas across the U.S. The company has closed more than $40 billion in home sales.

Contacts

Redfin Journalist Services:
Rachel Musiker
(206) 588-6863
press@redfin.com