Daily Archives: April 12, 2024

US Annual Home Price Growth Slows but Still Up by Over 5% in February

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  • U.S. single-family home prices rose by 5.5% year over year in February and are expected to taper to 3.1% growth by February 2025.
  • Four of the top five states with the highest annual home price growth are in the Northeast: New Jersey, Rhode Island, Maine and Connecticut
  • The five states where home prices remain furthest from the summer 2022 peak are Idaho, Washington, Utah, Vermont and Montana
  • The Miami and San Diego metro areas continued to lead the country for annual growth in February, both at about 10%.

Irvine, CA – April 02, 2024 (BUSINESS WIRE) CoreLogic®, a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for February 2024.

U.S. annual home price growth remained mostly consistent with numbers seen since last fall in February but finally slowed as the residual impact of comparing gains with weak 2022 home prices wore off. CoreLogic projects that year-over-year home price gains will continue to rise at a slower pace for the rest of 2024, which suggests more certainty for potential homebuyers who have been waiting to get a foot in the door. As noted in the most recent US CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index report, an increase in for-sale inventory also benefits potential homebuyers, though affordability remains a concern, particularly if mortgage rates remain elevated throughout the spring homebuying season.

“Home price growth pivoted in February, as the impact of the January 2023 Home Price Index bottom finally faded,” said Dr. Selma Hepp, chief economist for CoreLogic. “As a result, the U.S. should begin to see slowing annual home price gains moving forward.”

“Nevertheless,” Hepp continued, “with a 0.7% increase from January to February 2024, which is almost double the monthly increase recorded before the pandemic, spring home price gains are already off to a strong start despite continued mortgage rate volatility. That said, more inventory finally coming to market will likely translate to more options for buyers and fewer bidding wars, which typically keeps outsized price growth in check. Still, despite affordability challenges, homebuyer demand appears to favor already expensive, coastal markets with a limited availability of properties for sale.”

Top Takeaways:

  • U.S. single-family home prices (including distressed sales) increased by 5.5% year over year in February 2024 compared with February 2023. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 0.7% compared with January 2024.
  • In February, the annual appreciation of detached properties (5.8%) was 1.2 percentage points higher than that of attached properties (4.6%).
  • CoreLogic’s forecast shows annual U.S. home price gains relaxing to 3.1% in February 2025.
  • Miami posted the highest year-over-year home price increase of the country’s 10 highlighted metro areas in January, at 10.2%. San Diego saw the next-highest gain at 9.9%.
  • Among states, South Dakota ranked first for annual appreciation in January (up by 13.8%), followed by New Jersey (up by 12.5%) and Rhode Island (up by 11.6%). Only Idaho recorded a year-over-year home price loss of -0.1%.

The next CoreLogic HPI press release, featuring March 2024 data, is scheduled to be issued on May 7, 2024, at 8 a.m. EST.

Methodology

The CoreLogic HPI™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 45 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the Single-Family Combined tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.

CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers — Single-Family Combined (both attached and detached) and Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales. As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index.

About Market Risk Indicators

Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics solution that provide monthly updates on the overall health of housing markets across the country. CoreLogic data scientists combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price reduction.

About the Market Condition Indicators

As part of the CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecasts offerings, Market Condition Indicators are available for all metropolitan areas and identify individual markets as overvalued, at value or undervalued. These indicators are derived from the long-term fundamental values, which are a function of real disposable income per capita. Markets are labeled as overvalued if the current home price indexes exceed their long-term values by greater than 10% and undervalued where the long-term values exceed the index levels by greater than 10%.

Source: CoreLogic

The data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient’s publication or broadcast. This data may not be resold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient’s parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact Robin Wachner at newsmedia@corelogic.com. For sales inquiries, visit https://www.corelogic.com/support/sales-contact/. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. The data are compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.

About CoreLogic

CoreLogic is a leading provider of property insights and innovative solutions, working to transform the property industry by putting people first. Using its network, scale, connectivity and technology, CoreLogic delivers faster, smarter, more human-centered experiences that build better relationships, strengthen businesses and ultimately create a more resilient society. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.

CORELOGIC, the CoreLogic logo, CoreLogic HPI and CoreLogic HPI Forecast are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

Contacts

Media Contact:
Robin Wachner
newsmedia@corelogic.com

Sales Contact:
https://www.corelogic.com/support/sales-contact/

Half of U.S. Homeowners and Renters Struggle to Afford Their Housing Payments

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Americans report skipping meals, working overtime, and delaying medical care to afford housing

Seattle, WA – April 05, 2024 (BUSINESS WIRE) (NASDAQ: RDFN) Half of U.S. homeowners and renters (49.9%) sometimes, regularly or greatly struggle to afford their housing payments, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. Many report making sacrifices to cover their housing costs.

The most common sacrifice was taking no or fewer vacations. More than one-third of homeowners and renters (34.5%) who struggle to afford housing indicated that they skipped vacations in the past year in order to afford their monthly costs.

But many people who struggle to afford housing made more serious sacrifices: 22% skipped meals and 20.7% worked extra hours at their job. A similar share (20.6%) sold belongings.

These responses are based on a Redfin-commissioned survey conducted by Qualtrics in February 2024. The nationally representative survey was fielded to roughly 3,000 U.S. homeowners and renters. Most of Redfin’s report focuses on the 1,494 respondents who indicated that they sometimes, regularly or greatly struggle to afford regular rent or mortgage payments.

More than one of every six people (17.9%) who struggle to afford housing borrowed money from friends/family, and 17.6% dipped into their retirement savings. Over one in seven (15.6%) delayed or skipped medical treatments.

“Housing has become so financially burdensome in America that some families can no longer afford other essentials, including food and medical care, and have been forced to make major sacrifices, work overtime and ask others for money so they can cover their monthly costs,” said Redfin Economics Research Lead Chen Zhao. “Fortunately, the country’s leaders are starting to pay attention, and homebuyers may get a reprieve in June if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, which would bring down the cost of getting a mortgage.”

Mortgage payments are near their all-time high due to rising prices and elevated mortgage rates: The median U.S. home sale price is up about 5% from a year ago, and mortgage rates are hovering around 7%, not far from the 23-year high of roughly 8% hit in October. The typical household earns roughly $30,000 less than it needs to afford the median-priced home, and rents are on the rise again.

14% of Millennials Dipped Into Retirement Savings to Afford Housing Payments

Nearly one of every seven millennials (13.5%) who struggle to afford their housing payments have dipped into retirement savings to cover their monthly costs.

Most millennials are not retired, but housing affordability has become so strained that some are resorting to outside-the-box strategies to cover expenses. Millennials are the largest adult generation, and many are aging into their homebuying years at a time when home prices and mortgage rates are high.

The income needed to afford a starter home is up 8% from a year ago, prompting some young buyers to use family money to cover their down payment.

Baby boomers who struggle to afford housing were most likely to dip into retirement funds, with over one-quarter (27.5%) saying they did so to cover housing expenses. That makes sense, as many baby boomers are already retired, and it’s common for retirees to put their retirement savings toward housing.

Roughly 1 in 6 (15.5%) Gen Xers who struggle to afford housing dipped into retirement savings to afford monthly housing costs. The share was lowest among Gen Z respondents (6.5%), many of whom don’t yet have retirement savings.

The IRS typically taxes people who make withdrawals from their retirement accounts before the age of 59.5, but makes an exception for qualified first-time homebuyers, who are allowed to borrow up to $10,000 tax free.

Broken down by race/ethnicity, white respondents who struggle to afford housing were most likely (20.7%) to use retirement savings to cover housing costs, followed by Asian/Pacific Islander respondents (14%), Hispanic/LatinX respondents (13.6%) and Black respondents (12.6%).

Black Respondents Most Likely Work Extra Hours to Afford Housing; Gen Zers Most Likely to Sell Belongings

While pressing pause on vacations was the most common sacrifice for respondents as a whole, it wasn’t the top answer choice for every demographic. People of color and younger generations often made more serious sacrifices.

For example, Black respondents who struggle to afford housing were most likely to say they worked extra hours (25.9%) to cover their monthly costs, while Hispanic respondents were most likely to say that they sold belongings (28.2%). Skipping vacations was the most common answer among Asian/Pacific Islander respondents (43.8%) and white respondents (39.6%).

Black millennials are half as likely to own homes as white millennials, according to a separate Redfin analysis, though the racial homeownership gap exists across every generation due to decades of racist policies and discrimination.

When it came to age groups, skipping vacations was the top choice for baby boomers (42.8%), Gen Xers (36.8%) and millennials (31.3%) who struggle to afford housing. But for Gen Zers, the most common sacrifices were working extra hours, selling belongings and skipping meals, all of which clocked in at roughly 27%.

White Respondents, Baby Boomers and Homeowners Most Likely to Afford Housing Easily

Of the roughly 2,995 people who took the survey, half (50.1%) said they can easily afford their regular rent or mortgage payments, and half (49.9%) said they sometimes, regularly or greatly struggle to do so.

But the results vary by demographic. For example, 54.5% of white respondents said they can easily afford their housing payments, compared with 37.8% of Hispanic/LatinX respondents, 46.6% of Black respondents and 47.4% of Asian/Pacific Islander respondents.

Baby boomers were most likely to say they easily afford housing payments (61.9%), followed by Gen Xers (48.7%), millennials (40.2%) and Gen Zers (26.9%).

And homeowners (59.9%) were roughly twice as likely as renters (30.8%) to indicate that they easily afford their housing payments.

To view the full report, including charts and a detailed methodology, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/homebuying-sacrifices-survey-2024

About Redfin

Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We run the country’s #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home can have our renovations crew fix it up to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we’ve saved customers more than $1.6 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000 people.

Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity Home Loans®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide®, Title Forward® and WalkScore®.

For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin’s press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com. To view Redfin’s press center, click here.

Contacts

Redfin Journalist Services:
Angela Cherry, 913-638-8249
press@redfin.com