Housing costs remain stubbornly high, deterring some buyers–but Redfin economists say costs could come down soon
Seattle, WA – April 04, 2024 (BUSINESS WIRE) (NASDAQ: RDFN) New listings of U.S. homes for sale rose 8.4% from a year earlier during the four weeks ending March 31, the smallest increase in about seven weeks, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.
What sellers are doing: Year-over-year growth in new listings slowed because some sellers took a break over Easter, which fell over a week earlier in 2024 than in 2023. The slowdown is likely an Easter blip, but Redfin will be keeping a close eye on selling data over the next few weeks to confirm it’s not the start of a larger trend.
What buyers are doing: Homebuying demand was relatively soft this week, too. Home tours were up 15% from the start of the year, compared to a 21% increase at this time last year, and mortgage-purchase applications were flat this week. Pending home sales fell 2.8% from a year ago, and they posted an unseasonal decline during the last week of March. Some would-be buyers took a break from touring offers and making offers over Easter, and others are shying away due to high housing costs.
And what about prices? The median U.S. home-sale price was $376,223, up 4.7% from a year earlier. Median monthly housing payments were just $13 shy of the all-time high hit last October, when home prices were lower but mortgage rates were nearing 8%, versus just under 7% this week.
“Buyers may get a break on housing costs in the coming months,” said Redfin Economic Research Lead Chen Zhao. “Daily average mortgage rates rose this week because of some disappointing economic news. But if the upcoming job and inflation reports show that the economy is heading in the right direction, the Fed is likely to confirm they will cut interest rates in June, which would lower mortgage rates. Home-price growth could soften as spring goes on if new listings regain the momentum we saw before Easter.”
For more of Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, including how current financial events are impacting mortgage rates, please visit our “From Our Economists” page.
Leading indicators
| Indicators of homebuying demand and activity | ||||
| Value (if applicable) | Recent change | Year-over-year change | Source | |
| Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate | 7.07% (April 3) | Up from 6.91% a week earlier | Up from 6.44% | Mortgage News Daily |
| Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate | 6.79% (week ending March 28) | Down from 6.87% a week earlier | Up from 6.32% | Freddie Mac |
| Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted) | Essentially unchanged from a week earlier (as of week ending April 3) | Down 13% | Mortgage Bankers Association | |
| Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted) | Essentially unchanged from a month earlier (as of week ending March 31) | Down 11% | Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents | |
| Touring activity | Up 15% from the start of the year (as of April 2) | At this time last year, it was up 21% from the start of 2023 (last year’s increase was bigger partly because Easter fell on March 31 this year, and a week later in 2024) | ShowingTime, a home touring technology company | |
| Google searches for “home for sale” | Down 4% from a month earlier (as of April 1) | Down 13% | Google Trends | |
Key housing-market data
| U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending March 31, 2024Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision. | |||
| Four weeks ending March 31, 2024 | Year-over-year change | Notes | |
| Median sale price | $376,223 | 4.7% | |
| Median asking price | $404,925 | 4.9% | |
| Median monthly mortgage payment | $2,700 at a 6.79% mortgage rate | 9.3% | $13 shy of record high hit in October 2023 |
| Pending sales | 85,217 | -2.8% | |
| New listings | 88,631 | 8.4% | |
| Active listings | 812,460 | 6.9% | |
| Months of supply | 3.3 months | +0.4 pts. | 4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions |
| Share of homes off market in two weeks | 43% | Essentially unchanged | |
| Median days on market | 39 | -1 day | |
| Share of homes sold above list price | 27.6% | Up from 27% | |
| Share of homes with a price drop | 5.6% | +1.2 pts. | |
| Average sale-to-list price ratio | 99% | +0.3 pts. | |
| Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending March 31, 2024Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy. | |||
| Metros with biggest year-over-year increases | Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases | Notes | |
| Median sale price | West Palm Beach, FL (19.1%)Anaheim, CA (18%)San Jose, CA (15.9%)Providence, RI (14.3%)Miami (14%) | San Antonio, TX (-0.3%) | Declined in just 1 metro |
| Pending sales | San Jose, CA (30.5%)San Francisco (24.9%)Anaheim, CA (8.8%)Seattle (6.8%)Milwaukee (5.2%) | Atlanta (-15.9%)West Palm Beach, FL (-14.8%)Houston (-13.3%)San Antonio, TX (-12.5%)Fort Lauderdale, FL (-10.5%) | Increased in 16 metros |
| New listings | San Jose, CA (41.3%)Phoenix (30.2%)Sacramento, CA (25.4%)Jacksonville, FL (23.6%)Austin, TX (21.1%) | Atlanta (-9.6%)Newark, NJ (-8.9%)Boston (-8.3%)Chicago (-8%)Milwaukee, WI (-6%) | Declined in 13 metros |
To view the full report, including charts, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-listings-sales-stumble-easter-effect
About Redfin
Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We run the country’s #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home can have our renovations crew fix it up to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we’ve saved customers more than $1.6 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000 people.
Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity Home Loans®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide®, Title Forward® and WalkScore®.
For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin’s press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com. To view Redfin’s press center, click here.
Contacts
Redfin Journalist Services:
Kenneth Applewhaite, 206-414-8880
press@redfin.com
