Ten-X Residential Nowcast Model also projects another year-over-year increase in median sales price
IRVINE and SILICON VALLEY, Calif., Oct. 26, 2017 (PRNewswire) Ten-X, the nation’s leading online real estate transaction marketplace, has released its latest Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast which indicates existing home sales will decrease slightly in October. According to the nowcast, October sales will hit a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) between 5.2 and 5.49 million with a targeted number of 5.35 million, down 0.8 percent from NAR’s reported September sales.
“The lack of available inventory is having a major impact on existing home sales, and there’s not much hope for improvement in the foreseeable future,” said Ten-X Executive Vice President Rick Sharga. “New home construction is still lagging behind demand, about one third of current homeowners don’t have enough equity to put their homes on the market, and there appears to be a psychological barrier coming into play, where homeowners aren’t willing to sell their home because they’re afraid there’s nothing for them to buy. Over time these issues will be resolved, but in the meanwhile, it’s hard to see sales numbers improving significantly.”
Last month, the Ten-X Nowcast projected home sales to hover near their current level, a prediction that was confirmed by the recent National Association of Realtors® (NAR®) release, which showed that total existing-home sales edged higher to a 5.39 million seasonally adjusted annual rate in September. This marks a modest 0.7 percent increase from August’s reported 5.35 million number, though still 1.5 percent lower than a year ago.
Last month’s Ten-X Nowcast also predicted another solid annual gain in existing home prices, which was confirmed by the NAR report, as the median existing-home price for all housing types increased 4.2 percent from a year ago to $245,100 in September. This marks the 67th consecutive month of year-over-year gains as prices continue to advance amid a limited supply of homes for sale. The October Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast predicts that median existing home prices will continue to make annual strides falling between $231,897 and $256,308 with a target price point of $244,103, down 0.4 percent from September, but up 5.1 percent from last year.
“Demand for homes remains solid due to a robust labor market and low mortgage rates,” said Ten-X Chief Economist Peter Muoio. “However, extremely low inventory of homes for sale is a major factor constraining sales and driving up prices, diminishing affordability. High student debt, relatively tight underwriting conditions, and the potential for higher interest rates could further constrain a considerable segment of home buyers.”
About the Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast Model
The Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast combines industry data, proprietary company transactional data and Google search activity to predict market trends as they are occurring – weeks before the findings of other benchmark studies are released. Building upon the groundbreaking work by Google Chief Economist Hal Varian, Ten-X’s nowcast model extends a traditional autoregressive-forecasting model to incorporate contemporaneous information that provides significantly enhanced accuracy.
Existing Home Sales
Existing Home Sales Pricing
Ten-X is the nation’s leading online real estate transaction marketplace and the parent to Auction.com, Ten-X Commercial and Ten-X Homes. To date, the company has sold 300,000+ residential and commercial properties totaling over $50 billion. Leveraging desktop and mobile technology, Ten-X allows people to safely and easily complete real estate transactions online. Ten-X is headquartered in Irvine and Silicon Valley, Calif., and has offices in key markets nationwide. Investors in the company include Thomas H. Lee Partners, L.P. CapitalG (formerly Google Capital) and Stone Point Capital. For more information, visit Ten-X.com.