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US Serious Mortgage Delinquency Rate Drops to All-Time Low in August, CoreLogic Reports

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  • The share of U.S. borrowers who were in serious mortgage delinquency (90 days or more late on payments) dropped to 0.9% in August, the lowest recorded since January 1999.
  • The overall national mortgage delinquency rate (30 days or more late) was at 2.6% in August, also a historic low.
  • The U.S. foreclosure rate held steady at 0.3% in August, unchanged since early 2022.
  • Only Idaho and Utah saw slight annual upticks in overall mortgage delinquency growth in August, both up by 0.1 percentage point.
  • Fifty-one metro areas posted year-over-year mortgage delinquency rate increases in August.

Irvine, CA – October 26, 2023 (BUSINESS WIRE) CoreLogic®, a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released its monthly Loan Performance Insights Report for August 2023.

In August 2023, 2.6% of all mortgages in the U.S. were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure), representing a 0.2 percentage point decrease compared with 2.8% in August 2022 and a 0.1 percentage point decrease from July 2023.

To gain a complete view of the mortgage market and loan performance health, CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency. In August 2023, the U.S. delinquency and transition rates and their year-over-year changes, were as follows:

  • Early-Stage Delinquencies (30 to 59 days past due): 1.3%, up from 1.2% in August 2022.
  • Adverse Delinquency (60 to 89 days past due): 0.4%, up from 0.3% in August 2022.
  • Serious Delinquency (90 days or more past due, including loans in foreclosure): 0.9%, down from 1.2% in August 2022 and a high of 4.3% in August 2020.
  • Foreclosure Inventory Rate (the share of mortgages in some stage of the foreclosure process): 0.3%, unchanged from August 2022.
  • Transition Rate (the share of mortgages that transitioned from current to 30 days past due): 0.6%, unchanged from August 2022.

The share of U.S. mortgages that fell into serious delinquency — representing borrowers who are three months late on payments — dropped to the lowest level in nearly 25 years in August, at 0.9%. Nationwide, overall mortgage delinquencies (2.6%) and foreclosures (0.3%) also remained near historic lows, a clear sign that most U.S. homeowners can currently cover their monthly payments. But as interest rates have approached 8% in October, more prospective buyers could be sidelined, a factor that makes timing the housing market crucial to building long-term wealth.

“U.S. mortgage performance remained strong in August, supported by a robust job market and a healthy economy,” said Molly Boesel, principal economist at CoreLogic. “However, this thriving job market comes at a time when interest rates are quickly rising, which is keeping many potential homebuyers from being able to secure a mortgage.”

State and Metro Takeaways:

  • Of U.S. states, Idaho and Utah posted small annual increases (both up by 0.1 percentage point) in overall mortgage delinquency rates in August. Overall delinquency rates were unchanged year over year in Arizona, Florida, Indiana and Oregon. The remaining states’ annual delinquency rates declined between 0.1 and 0.8 percentage points.
  • In August, 51 U.S. metro areas posted increases in overall year-over-year delinquency rates. The metros with the largest increases were Elkhart-Goshen, Indiana (up by 0.6 percentage points); and Kokomo, Indiana and Punta Gorda, Florida (both up by 0.5 percentage points).
  • In August, three U.S. metro areas posted an increase in serious delinquency rates (defined as 90 days or more late on a mortgage payment), while changes in other metros ranged from – 1.4 percentage points to 0.0 percentage points. The metros that posted annual serious delinquency increases were Punta Gorda, Florida (up by 0.5 percentage points); Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Florida (up by 0.4 percentage points) and Cheyenne, Wyoming (up by 0.1 percentage point).

The next CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights Report will be released on November 30, 2023, featuring data for September 2023. For ongoing housing trends and data, visit the CoreLogic Intelligence Blog: www.corelogic.com/intelligence.

Methodology

The data in The CoreLogic LPI report represents foreclosure and delinquency activity reported through August 2023. The data in this report accounts for only first liens against a property and does not include secondary liens. The delinquency, transition and foreclosure rates are measured only against homes that have an outstanding mortgage. Homes without mortgage liens are not subject to foreclosure and are, therefore, excluded from the analysis. CoreLogic has approximately 75% coverage of U.S. foreclosure data.

Source: CoreLogic

The data provided is for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient’s publication or broadcast. This data may not be re-sold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient’s parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data is illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact Robin Wachner at newsmedia@corelogic.com. For sales inquiries, please visit https://www.corelogic.com/support/sales-contact/. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. This data is compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.

About CoreLogic

CoreLogic is a leading provider of property insights and innovative solutions, working to transform the property industry by putting people first. Using its network, scale, connectivity and technology, CoreLogic delivers faster, smarter, more human-centered experiences that build better relationships, strengthen businesses and ultimately create a more resilient society. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.

CORELOGIC and the CoreLogic logo are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries.

Contacts

Media Contact:
Robin Wachner
CoreLogic
newsmedia@corelogic.com

Sales Contact:
https://www.corelogic.com/support/sales-contact/

US Annual Home Price Growth Inches Up in June

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  • U.S. home prices continued to reach new highs in June and are 41% above pre-pandemic levels.
  • Annual U.S. single-family home price growth was up by 1.6% in June after increasing by 1.5% in May, marking the 137th straight month of year-over-year gains and a pivot after 13 months of slowing.
  • National home prices increased by 4.8% since the beginning of the year in June, marking the sixth consecutive month of gains.
  • Ten states and one district posted year-over-year home price declines in June, with most of the losses again concentrated in the West. While the annual losses reflect last year’s declines, many West Coast markets are expected to see a strong rebound in prices over the next year.
  • The strongest home price gains since the beginning of the year have been in the Northeast (New Hampshire, Connecticut, Rhode Island and New Jersey) and the Midwest (Missouri, Wisconsin and Ohio).
  • June’s U.S. median single-family home price was $376,000, with California ($720,000), the District of Columbia ($680,000) and Massachusetts ($583,500) leading the country.
  • CoreLogic projects that annual U.S. home price appreciation will continue accelerating for the remainder of 2023 to reach 6.8% year over year in January 2024 and relaxing to 4.3% by June 2024.

Irvine, CA – August 01, 2023 (BUSINESS WIRE) CoreLogic®, a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for June 2023.

While annual home price growth remained near an 11-year low in June, at 1.6%, the gain was slightly higher than in May, indicating that appreciation could be bottoming out. CoreLogic expects year-over-year U.S. home price appreciation to pick up for the rest of 2023 and reach about 7% by early 2024.

Ten states and the District of Columbia posted annual home price declines in June, with some of the largest losses again recorded in the Northwest. However, since Western states are still grappling with a lack of homes for sale, prices in that region are likely to remain elevated over the long term.

“While the continued imbalance between buyers and sellers continues to pressure home prices, June’s annual bump in price growth echoes economic resiliency, a thriving U.S. job market and strong consumer spending,” said Selma Hepp, Chief Economist for CoreLogic. “And while higher mortgage rates are impacting affordability for buyers with loans, almost four in 10 sales are all-cash transactions. Also, most baby-boomer homeowners have substantial equity, which could be putting pressure on prices in markets where that generation is currently migrating.”

Figure 1: HPI & Forecast % YOY (Graphic: Business Wire)
Table 1: Single-Family Combined HPI % Change & Market Condition Indicators for Select Metros (Graphic: Business Wire)
Table 2: Top Markets at Risk of Home Price Decline (Graphic: Business Wire)

Top Takeaways:

  • U.S. home prices (including distressed sales) increased by 1.6% year over year in June 2023 compared with June 2022. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 0.5% compared with May 2023.
  • In June, the annual appreciation of attached properties (2.3%) was 0.9 percentage points higher than that of detached properties (1.4%).
  • CoreLogic forecasts show annual U.S. home price gains increasing to 4.3% by June 2024.
  • Miami again posted the highest year-over-year home price increase of the country’s 20 tracked metro areas in June, at 8.9%. Detroit saw the next-highest gain (4.2%), followed by Atlanta (3.9%).
  • Among states, New Jersey ranked first for annual appreciation in June (up by 6.9%), followed by New Hampshire and Vermont (both up by 6.4%). Ten states and one district recorded annual home price losses: Idaho (-8%), Washington (-5.8%), Montana (-5.7%), Nevada (-5.3%), Arizona (-4.1%), Utah (-3.8%), Oregon (-2.3%), California (-2.2%), Colorado (-1.8%), Washington, D.C.(-0.6%) and New York (-0.3%).

The next CoreLogic HPI press release, featuring July 2023 data, will be issued on September 5, 2023, at 8 a.m. EST.

Methodology

The CoreLogic HPI™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 45 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the Single-Family Combined tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.

CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers — Single-Family Combined (both attached and detached) and Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales. As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index.

About Market Risk Indicators

Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics solution that provide monthly updates on the overall health of housing markets across the country. CoreLogic data scientists combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price reduction.

About the Market Condition Indicators

As part of the CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecasts offerings, Market Condition Indicators are available for all metropolitan areas and identify individual markets as overvalued, at value or undervalued. These indicators are derived from the long-term fundamental values, which are a function of real disposable income per capita. Markets are labeled as overvalued if the current home price indexes exceed their long-term values by greater than 10% and undervalued where the long-term values exceed the index levels by greater than 10%.

Source: CoreLogic

The data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient’s publication or broadcast. This data may not be resold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient’s parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact Robin Wachner at newsmedia@corelogic.com. For sales inquiries, visit https://www.corelogic.com/support/sales-contact/. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. The data are compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.

About CoreLogic

CoreLogic is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider. The company’s combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 4.5 billion records spanning more than 50 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.

CORELOGIC, the CoreLogic logo, CoreLogic HPI and CoreLogic HPI Forecast are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

Contacts

Media Contact:
Robin Wachner
newsmedia@corelogic.com

Sales Contact:
https://www.corelogic.com/support/sales-contact/

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Continued Gains In April

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New York, NY – June 27, 2023 (PRNewswire) S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for April 2023 show all 20 major metro markets again reported month-over-month price increases with gains accelerating in 12 markets.

More than 27 years of history are available for the data series and can be accessed in full by going to www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-family/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a -0.2% annual decrease in April, down from a gain of 0.7% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite showed a decrease of -1.2%, down from the -0.7% decrease in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a -1.7% year-over-year loss, down from -1.1% in the previous month.

Miami, Chicago, and Atlanta reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in March. Miami held the top spot again  with a 5.2% year-over-year price increase, while Chicago broke into the top three in second with a 4.1% increase, and Atlanta reclaiming third over Charlotte with a 3.5% increase. There are 17 of 20 cities reporting lower prices in the year ending April 2023 versus the year ending March 2023, with Boston, San Francisco and Cleveland showing slight increases of 0.1%, 0.1% and 0.9%, respectively. 

MONTH-OVER-MONTH

Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 1.3% month-over-month increase in April, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.7%.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.5%, while the 10-City Composite gained 1.0% and 20-City Composites posted an increase of 0.9%.

ANALYSIS

“The U.S. housing market continued to strengthen in April 2023, says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “Home prices peaked in June 2022, declined until January 2023, and then began to recover.  The National Composite rose by 1.3% in April (repeating March’s performance), and now stands only 2.4% below its June 2022 peak.  Our 10- and 20-City Composites both gained 1.7% in April.

“The ongoing recovery in home prices is broadly based.  Before seasonal adjustments, prices rose in all 20 cities in April (as they had also done in March).  Seasonally adjusted data showed rising prices in 19 cities in April (versus 14 in March). 

“On a trailing 12-month basis, the National Composite is 0.2% below its April 2022 level, with the 10- and 20-City Composites also negative on a year-over-year basis, but regional differences continue to be striking.  Miami’s 5.2% gain made it the best-performing city for the ninth consecutive month, but in April Chicago toddled into second place with a 4.1% gain.  Atlanta (+3.5%) and Charlotte (+3.4%) round out the top four.  The next three positions are occupied by New York, Cleveland, and then perennial medalist Tampa, indicating a remarkable diversity among the top performers.  At the other end of the scale, however, the worst eight performers are all in the Mountain or Pacific time zones, with Seattle (-12.4%) and San Francisco (-11.1%) at the bottom.  The Southeast (+3.6%) continues as the country’s strongest region, while the West (-6.9%) remains the weakest.

“If I were trying to make a case that the decline in home prices that began in June 2022 had definitively ended in January 2023, April’s data would bolster my argument.  Whether we see further support for that view in coming months will depend on the how well the market navigates the challenges posed by current mortgage rates and the continuing possibility of economic weakness.”

Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.

2006 Peak2012 TroughCurrent
IndexLevelDateLevelDateFrom Peak
(%)		LevelFrom Trough
(%)		From Peak
(%)
National184.61Jul-06134.00Feb-12-27.4 %301.05124.7 %63.1 %
20-City206.52Jul-06134.07Mar-12-35.1 %307.43129.3 %48.9 %
10-City226.29Jun-06146.45Mar-12-35.3 %320.87119.1 %41.8 %

Table 2 below summarizes the results for April 2023. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices could be revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.

April 2023April/MarchMarch/February1-Year
Metropolitan AreaLevelChange (%)Change (%)Change (%)
Atlanta232.561.3 %1.1 %3.5 %
Boston310.772.9 %1.3 %0.9 %
Charlotte257.951.4 %1.7 %3.4 %
Chicago188.501.8 %1.9 %4.1 %
Cleveland174.062.3 %0.6 %2.9 %
Dallas288.661.4 %1.1 %-2.9 %
Denver313.841.6 %2.0 %-4.5 %
Detroit172.682.3 %2.3 %1.1 %
Las Vegas270.450.7 %0.5 %-6.6 %
Los Angeles405.471.7 %1.6 %-3.2 %
Miami403.800.9 %0.7 %5.2 %
Minneapolis231.881.7 %2.0 %0.0 %
New York277.541.5 %1.4 %3.0 %
Phoenix311.360.7 %0.5 %-6.1 %
Portland321.561.5 %1.4 %-5.2 %
San Diego401.902.0 %2.5 %-5.6 %
San Francisco346.772.2 %3.0 %-11.1 %
Seattle360.602.3 %2.0 %-12.4 %
Tampa370.870.8 %1.0 %2.4 %
Washington305.491.6 %1.4 %-0.5 %
Composite-10320.871.7 %1.7 %-1.2 %
Composite-20307.431.7 %1.6 %-1.7 %
U.S. National301.051.3 %1.3 %-0.2 %
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic
Data through April 2023

Table 3 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data. Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.

April/March Change (%)March/February Change (%)
Metropolitan AreaNSASANSASA
Atlanta1.3 %0.9 %1.1 %0.4 %
Boston2.9 %1.5 %1.3 %-0.1 %
Charlotte1.4 %0.7 %1.7 %0.9 %
Chicago1.8 %0.9 %1.9 %0.9 %
Cleveland2.3 %1.8 %0.6 %-0.3 %
Dallas1.4 %0.5 %1.1 %-0.2 %
Denver1.6 %0.4 %2.0 %0.0 %
Detroit2.3 %1.0 %2.3 %1.4 %
Las Vegas0.7 %0.2 %0.5 %-0.4 %
Los Angeles1.7 %1.1 %1.6 %0.4 %
Miami0.9 %0.3 %0.7 %0.2 %
Minneapolis1.7 %0.5 %2.0 %1.0 %
New York1.5 %1.3 %1.4 %1.2 %
Phoenix0.7 %-0.1 %0.5 %-0.3 %
Portland1.5 %0.8 %1.4 %0.2 %
San Diego2.0 %0.9 %2.5 %0.9 %
San Francisco2.2 %1.0 %3.0 %0.5 %
Seattle2.3 %0.6 %2.0 %-0.8 %
Tampa0.8 %0.4 %1.0 %0.2 %
Washington1.6 %0.5 %1.4 %0.4 %
Composite-101.7 %1.0 %1.7 %0.6 %
Composite-201.7 %0.9 %1.6 %0.4 %
U.S. National1.3 %0.5 %1.3 %0.4 %
Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic
Data through April 2023

For more information about S&P Dow Jones Indices, please visit www.spglobal.com/spdji.

ABOUT S&P DOW JONES INDICES

S&P Dow Jones Indices is the largest global resource for essential index-based concepts, data and research, and home to iconic financial market indicators, such as the S&P 500® and the Dow Jones Industrial Average®. More assets are invested in products based on our indices than products based on indices from any other provider in the world. Since Charles Dow invented the first index in 1884, S&P DJI has been innovating and developing indices across the spectrum of asset classes helping to define the way investors measure and trade the markets.

S&P Dow Jones Indices is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI), which provides essential intelligence for individuals, companies, and governments to make decisions with confidence. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/spdji.

FOR MORE INFORMATION:

April Kabahar
Global Head of Communications
New York, USA
(+1) 212 438 7530
april.kabahar@spglobal.com

S&P Dow Jones Indices’ interactive blog, IndexologyBlog.com, delivers real-time commentary and analysis from industry experts across S&P Global on a wide-range of topics impacting residential home prices, homebuilding and mortgage financing in the United States. Readers and viewers can visit the blog at www.indexologyblog.com, where feedback and commentary are welcomed and encouraged.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are published on the last Tuesday of each month at 9:00 am ET. They are constructed to accurately track the price path of typical single-family homes located in each metropolitan area provided. Each index combines matched price pairs for thousands of individual houses from the available universe of arms-length sales data. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index tracks the value of single-family housing within the United States. The index is a composite of single-family home price indices for the nine U.S. Census divisions and is calculated quarterly. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 10 original metro area indices. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 20 metro area indices. The indices have a base value of 100 in January 2000; thus, for example, a current index value of 150 translates to a 50% appreciation rate since January 2000 for a typical home located within the subject market.

These indices are generated and published under agreements between S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic, Inc.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are produced by CoreLogic, Inc. In addition to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, CoreLogic also offers home price index sets covering thousands of zip codes, counties, metro areas, and state markets. The indices, published by S&P Dow Jones Indices, represent just a small subset of the broader data available through CoreLogic.

Case-Shiller® and CoreLogic® are trademarks of CoreLogic Case-Shiller, LLC or its affiliates or subsidiaries (“CoreLogic”) and have been licensed for use by S&P Dow Jones Indices. None of the financial products based on indices produced by CoreLogic or its predecessors in interest are sponsored, sold, or promoted by CoreLogic, and neither CoreLogic nor any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, or predecessors in interest makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such products.

SOURCE S&P Dow Jones Indices