Encouraging Signs For Black Homeownership Rate as it Rebounds From Historic Lows

The homeownership rate for black households rose during the second half of 2018, perhaps the start of a recovery from lows following the Great Recession

Seattle, WA – Feb. 18, 2020 (PRNewswire) Recent trends in the black homeownership rate show an increasing number are becoming homeowners. The homeownership rate for black households jumped 3.4 percentage points over the second half of 2019, bringing it from a three-decade low to back near historic averagesi. A deeper analysis by Zillow® revealed some metro areas across the U.S. where the black homeownership rate is higher than other large metros with comparably sized black populations. 

The black homeownership rate has experienced its share of ups and downs in the past half-century — gains during the last half of the 20th century, then an outsized drop during the mid-2000s housing bust before these recent signs of a bounceback. The rate of homeownership for black households rose from 41.6% in 1970 to a peak of 46.5% in 2007. But homeowners of color were hit the hardest during the Great Recession, and by 2016 the black homeownership rate had plummeted all the way below 1970 levels. At the end of 2019, 44% of black households owned their home, an increase from lows hit during 2016 but still below the 2007 peak. 

Across the U.S., the black homeownership rate lags behind that of non-black households in each of the 45 large metros included in this analysis, but it now sits above its mid-decade averageii in more than half. This rate has grown the most since mid-decade in Sacramento (+7.8 percentage points), Phoenix (+5.4), Orlando (+5.3), San Francisco (+4.4) and Portland (+3.9). 

And in some cases, the rate of growth in the black homeownership rate has exceeded that of all other households since mid-decade, meaning the deficit is shrinking. Black households have closed the gap the most in Sacramento (6.5 percentage points closer), Orlando (4.1) and Cincinnati (3.2).

In general, areas with a higher share of black residents have a higher black homeownership rate. The large metros with the highest black homeownership rate are Birmingham (52.2%), Washington, D.C. (51.4%), Richmond (49.9%) and Atlanta (48.2%). These metros rank seventh, eighth, fifth and third, respectively, with the highest share of black residents. 

There are some areas where the black homeownership rate is higher than might be expected based on the area’s black population. San Antonio has the 37th-highest share of black residents among those included in this analysis, but the black homeownership rate there (42.9%) ranks 14th. The situation is similar in Riverside (15th-highest black homeownership rate; 35th-highest share of black residents), Orlando (6th-highest black homeownership rate; 24th-highest share of black residents) and Sacramento (23rd-highest black homeownership rate; 39th-highest share of black residents). 

“Homeownership has been a key path to wealth creation and stability for generations of Americans,” said Jeff Tucker, a Zillow economist. “It appears that now, more than 10 years after a housing bust that hit black homeowners the hardest, more black families are beginning to move into homeownership. The remaining gap from the 2007 peak shows a long road ahead in the recovery, but this is a step in the right direction.”

According to the Zillow Group Consumer Housing Trends Report, black home buyers are more likely to be at least somewhat concerned about qualifying for a mortgage (59%) than white buyers (46%). And buyers of color are more likely to be denied financing at least once before being approved for a mortgage (76%) than white buyers (15%).

MetroMid-Decade Average
Homeownership Rate –
Black Households (average
of 2014, 2015 and 2016)
2018 Homeownership
Rate – Black
Households
Change in
Homeownership
Rate
United States41.1%41.5%0.4%
New York, NY31.2%32.9%1.7%
Los Angeles, CA33.6%31.7%-1.9%
Chicago, IL39.1%40.3%1.2%
Dallas, TX36.9%35.1%-1.8%
Houston, TX41.4%40.9%-0.5%
Philadelphia, PA48.1%48.1%0.0%
Washington, DC49.5%51.4%1.9%
Miami, FL43.9%45.6%1.7%
Atlanta, GA46.1%48.2%2.1%
Phoenix, AZ29.4%34.8%5.4%
Detroit, MI41.5%42.0%0.5%
San Francisco, CA31.8%36.2%4.4%
Seattle, WA31.6%32.6%1.0%
Minneapolis, MN24.6%22.3%-2.3%
Riverside, CA39.5%42.4%2.9%
Tampa, FL37.8%39.1%1.3%
Saint Louis, MO40.3%39.5%-0.8%
Denver, CO37.6%34.8%-2.8%
San Diego, CA29.8%26.8%-3.0%
Baltimore, MD44.4%46.2%1.8%
Pittsburgh, PA32.8%32.0%-0.8%
Charlotte, NC43.3%44.0%0.7%
Portland, OR30.5%34.4%3.9%
Orlando, FL42.2%47.5%5.3%
Cleveland, OH35.5%34.3%-1.2%
Cincinnati, OH32.1%35.4%3.3%
Sacramento, CA31.1%38.9%7.8%
Kansas City, MO38.1%37.4%-0.7%
San Antonio, TX42.9%42.9%0.0%
Las Vegas, NV28.9%28.8%-0.1%
Columbus, OH33.6%32.3%-1.3%
Austin, TX43.0%38.2%-4.8%
Indianapolis, IN36.3%35.0%-1.3%
Nashville, TN42.2%41.7%-0.5%
San Jose, CA33.0%24.0%-9.0%
Virginia Beach, VA41.3%42.2%0.9%
Milwaukee, WI27.6%27.1%-0.5%
Jacksonville, FL44.5%43.2%-1.3%
Louisville, KY35.5%37.7%2.2%
Raleigh, NC43.8%43.8%0.0%
Memphis, TN44.4%44.5%0.1%
Richmond, VA47.9%49.9%2.0%
New Orleans, LA45.1%47.2%2.1%
Buffalo, NY32.3%33.1%0.8%
Birmingham, AL49.9%52.2%2.3%

About Zillow
Zillow® is transforming how people buy, sell, rent and finance homes by creating seamless real estate transactions for today’s on-demand consumer. Zillow is the leading real estate and rental marketplace and a trusted source for data, inspiration and knowledge among both consumers and real estate professionals. 

Zillow’s proprietary data, technology and industry partnerships put Zillow at nearly every major point of the home shopping experience, helping consumers search for and get into their new home faster. Zillow now offers a fully integrated home shopping experience that includes access to for sale and rental listings, Zillow Offers®, which provides a new, hassle-free way to buy and sell eligible homes directly through Zillow; and Zillow Home Loans, Zillow’s affiliated lender that provides an easy way to receive mortgage pre-approvals and financing. Zillow Premier Agent instantly connects buyers and sellers with its network of real estate professionals to help guide them through the home shopping process. For renters, Zillow’s innovations are streamlining the way people search, tour, apply and pay rent for leased properties. 

In addition to Zillow.com, Zillow operates the most popular suite of mobile real estate apps, with more than two dozen apps across all major platforms. Launched in 2006, Zillow is owned and operated by Zillow Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:Z and ZG) and headquartered in Seattle.

Zillow and Zillow Offers are registered trademarks of Zillow, Inc.

_____________________________
i According to the most recent quarterly data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Housing Vacancy and Homeownership Survey and annual data from the American Community Survey.
ii Comparing annual 2018 homeownership rates from the American Community Survey to the average of the 2014, 2015 and 2016 annual homeownership rates.

Highest Share Of Homeowners Likely To Move In Q3 2018 In Chicago, DC, Orlando, Tampa, Atlanta

Lowest Share of Pre-Movers in Cleveland, Boston, Pittsburgh, Detroit, San Francisco; North Dakota, Illinois, Nevada, Virginia and Colorado the Top Five Pre-Mover States

Irvine, CA – Aug. 16, 2018 (PRNewswire) ATTOM Data Solutions, curator of the nation’s premier property database, today released its Q2 2018 Pre-Mover Housing Index, which shows Chicago, Washington, D.C., Orlando, Tampa-St. Petersburg and Atlanta posted the highest pre-mover index in the second quarter of 2018 — predictive of a high percentage of homeowners moving in the third quarter — among 36 metropolitan statistical areas with at least 500,000 single family homes and condos.

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Using data collected from purchase loan applications on residential real estate transactions, the ATTOM Data Solutions Pre-Mover Housing Index is based on the ratio of homes with a “pre-mover” indicator to total single family homes and condos in a given geography, indexed off the national average. An index above 100 is above the national average and indicates an above-average ratio of homes that will likely be sold in the next 90 days in a given market (see full methodology below).

Among a broader set of 131 metro areas with at least 100,000 single family homes and condos, those posting the highest pre-mover index in Q2 2018 were Wilmington, North Carolina (206); Colorado Springs, Colorado (178); and Manchester-Nashua, New Hampshire (172); followed by Chicago (168) and Washington, D.C. (166).

“A higher pre-mover index bodes well for local real estate agents, home improvement stores, moving companies and others that benefit from the halo effect of a home sale,” said Daren Blomquist, senior vice president at ATTOM Data Solutions. “Meanwhile markets with a low pre-mover index likely have a scarcity of inventory available to buy or relatively weak demand from prospective buyers — or some combination of both — which is not optimal for businesses that rely on the home sale halo effect.”

Pre-Mover Heat Map by Metro Area

Cleveland, Boston, Pittsburgh post lowest pre-mover indexes among major metros

Among the 36 metros with at least 500,000 single family homes and condos, those with the lowest pre-mover index in Q2 2018 were Cleveland, Ohio (38); Boston, Massachusetts (39); Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (48); Detroit, Michigan (48); and San Francisco, California (49).

Among the broader set of 131 metro areas with at least 100,000 single family homes and condos, those with the lowest pre-mover index in Q2 2018 were Providence, Rhode Island (31); Albany, New York (35); San Jose, California (37); Buffalo, New York (38); and Cleveland, Ohio (38).

North Dakota, Illinois, Nevada post highest pre-mover indexes among states

States with the highest pre-mover index in the second quarter of 2018 — predictive of a high percentage of homeowners moving in the third quarter — were North Dakota (275), Illinois (193), Nevada (164), Virginia (163), and Colorado (147).

Other states with a pre-mover index among the 10 highest in Q2 2018 were New Jersey (133), Florida (133), Delaware (130), Maryland (127), and Utah (124).

Pre-Mover Heat Map by State

Chicago and DC counties post highest county pre-mover indexes

Among 394 counties analyzed in the report, those with the highest pre-mover index in Q2 2018 were Kendall County, Illinois, in the Chicago metro area (461); Albemarle County, Virginia, in the Charlottesville metro area (337); followed by three Virginia counties all in the Washington, D.C. metro area: Loudon County (319), Alexandria City (307); and Spotsylvania County (294).

San Francisco and New York City counties post lowest county pre-mover indexes

Among the same 394 counties, those with the lowest pre-mover index in Q2 2018 were San Francisco County, California (31); Queens County, New York (33); Westchester County, New York (36); Westmoreland County, Pennsylvania in the Pittsburgh metro area (39); and Cameron County, Texas in the Brownsville-Harlingen metro area (42).

Highest share of investment property pre-movers in Memphis, Indianapolis, Knoxville

Nationwide 4.6 percent of all single family homes and condos with a pre-mover indicator in Q2 2018 were being purchased as an investment property.

Among the 131 metropolitan statistical areas analyzed in the report, the highest share of pre-mover investment homes were in Memphis, Tennessee (21.3 percent); Indianapolis, Indiana (10.9 percent); Knoxville, Tennessee (10.1 percent); Dayton, Ohio (9.4 percent); and Fort Collins-Loveland, Colorado (9.3 percent).

Highest share of second home pre-movers in Ocean City, Naples, Myrtle Beach

Nationwide 3.2 percent of all single family homes and condos with a pre-mover indicator in Q2 2018 were being purchased as a second home.

Among the 131 metropolitan statistical areas analyzed in the report, the highest share of pre-mover second homes were in Ocean City, New Jersey (34.6 percent); Naples-Marco Island, Florida (31.3 percent); Myrtle Beach, South Carolina (25.2 percent); Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Florida (20.9 percent); and Wilmington, North Carolina (15.7 percent).

Report methodology

Using data collected from purchase loan applications on residential real estate transactions, the ATTOM Data Solutions Pre-Mover Housing Index is based on the ratio of homes with a “pre-mover” flag to total single family homes and condos in a given geography, indexed off the national average. Any index above 100 is above the national average and indicates an above-average ratio of homes that will likely be sold in the next 30 to 90 days in a given market. Historical pre-mover data going back to Q1 2014 shows that 59 percent of homes with a pre-mover flag sell within 30 days of the estimated loan settlement date that is provided in the pre-mover data, and 76 percent sell within 90 days of that settlement date. The loan application data used for the pre-mover index also includes the intended purpose of the potential purchase: primary residence, secondary (vacation) home, or investment property.

About ATTOM Data Solutions

ATTOM Data Solutions provides premium property data to power products that improve transparency, innovation, efficiency and disruption in a data-driven economy. ATTOM multi-sources property tax, deed, mortgage, foreclosure, environmental risk, natural hazard, and neighborhood data for more than 155 million U.S. residential and commercial properties covering 99 percent of the nation’s population. A rigorous data management process involving more than 20 steps validates, standardizes and enhances the data collected by ATTOM, assigning each property record with a persistent, unique ID — the ATTOM ID. The 9TB ATTOM Data Warehouse fuels innovation in many industries including mortgage, real estate, insurance, marketing, government and more through flexible data delivery solutions that include bulk file licenses, APIs, market trends, marketing lists, match & append and more.

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Christine Stricker
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christine.stricker@attomdata.com

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