Experts More Pessimistic about U.S. Housing Market Following New Tax Laws

Despite fast-rising home values now, housing experts say they expect appreciation to slow to below 3 percent by 2021

Seattle, WA – Feb. 20, 2018 (PRNewswire) New changes to U.S. tax laws led 41 percent of survey respondents to lower their long-term expectations for the U.S. housing market, according to the 2018 Q1 Zillow® Home Price Expectations Survey(i).

Zillow Logo

The quarterly survey, sponsored by Zillow and conducted by Pulsenomics LLC, asked more than 100 housing experts and economists about their expectations for home price growth, and whether tax reform affected these predictions.

When asked how the new tax law impacted their five-year forecast for home values in the U.S., 41 percent of respondents said their overall housing outlook is now more pessimistic, while 31 percent of the panelists had a more optimistic view as a result of the tax reform. The remaining 28 percent of respondents said that tax reform did not change their outlook.

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, enacted in December 2017, limited many itemized deductions such as the mortgage interest deduction while expanding the standard deduction. Most taxpayers take the standard deduction, and will see take-home incomes increase as a result of tax reform, providing a boost to spending, savings and investment this year.

One possible reason for the experts’ pessimism is the fear that cutting taxes when the American economy is already running at full capacity increases the risk of a downturn in the next five years. This could push the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates faster than had been expected, according to Zillow Senior Economist Aaron Terrazas.

“By expanding the standard deduction, tax reform will put more money into the typical American’s pocket in 2018, which will boost spending and could help renters save faster for a down payment,” said Zillow Senior Economist Aaron Terrazas. “But the longer-term outlook is less rosy. There is some concern that tax cuts at this point in the business cycle may be throwing fuel on an already ranging fire and could lead the economy to overheat. Most economists we surveyed see a stronger outlook for the housing market over the next year or two but a more pessimistic outlook on the longer horizon.”

In the near future, experts raised their predictions from previous surveys for home values as limited inventory and high demand keep prices moving higher.

Despite the rosy outlook for home prices over the next few years, homes today are less valuable than they would be if the recession had not happened. If the housing bubble and bust had not happened, and home values had instead appreciated at a steady pace(ii), the median home value would be about $214,500, 4 percent higher than its current value of $206,300.

“The persistent short supply of entry-level homes for sale has highlighted just how bifurcated the U.S. housing market has become,” said Terry Loebs, founder of Pulsenomics. “The experts project that the value of homes in the bottom third of the market will appreciate at 6 percent this year—double the rate expected for the highest-priced tertile. Limited inventory of low-priced homes, coupled with expectations for rising interest rates, likely foreshadow a frenetic, anxiety-filled spring buying season for qualified first-time homebuyers.”

Zillow:
Zillow is the leading real estate and rental marketplace dedicated to empowering consumers with data, inspiration and knowledge around the place they call home, and connecting them with the best local professionals who can help. In addition, Zillow operates an industry-leading economics and analytics bureau led by Zillow’s Chief Economist Dr. Svenja Gudell. Dr. Gudell and her team of economists and data analysts produce extensive housing data and research covering more than 450 markets at Zillow Real Estate Research. Zillow also sponsors the quarterly Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey, which asks more than 100 leading economists, real estate experts and investment and market strategists to predict the path of the Zillow Home Value Index over the next five years. Launched in 2006, Zillow is owned and operated by Zillow Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: Z and ZG), and headquartered in Seattle.

Zillow is a registered trademark of Zillow, Inc.

Pulsenomics:
Pulsenomics LLC (www.pulsenomics.com) is an independent research and consulting firm that specializes in data analytics, new product and index development for institutional clients in the financial and real estate arenas. Pulsenomics also designs and manages expert surveys and consumer polls to identify trends and expectations that are relevant to effective business management and monitoring economic health. Pulsenomics LLC is the author of The Home Price Expectations Survey™, The U.S. Housing Confidence Survey, and The U.S. Housing Confidence Index. Pulsenomics®, The Housing Confidence Index™, and The Housing Confidence Survey™ are trademarks of Pulsenomics LLC.

____________________________

(i) This edition of the Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey surveyed 105 experts between January 29, 2018 and February 12, 2018. The survey was conducted by Pulsenomics LLC on behalf of Zillow, Inc. and asked the experts about their expectations for the housing market.

(ii) Assuming a 3.6 percent annual pace, the average pace from 1987-1999.

U.S. Housing Market Has Gained Back All $9 Trillion in Value Lost During Recession, but Uneven Recovery Means Some Markets Still Lag

– Home values in both Las Vegas and San Jose have doubled since the lowest point of the housing crisis, but Las Vegas has still not regained all of its lost value

– Home values are higher than ever in more than half of the largest U.S. metros.

– The typical U.S. home has gained 36.5 percent in value since the market hit bottom in 2011, and is now 5 percent more valuable than at the height of the housing bubble.

– Las Vegas home values remain 19 percent below the peak reached during bubble; San Jose passed its previous peak in 2014.

Seattle, WA – Jan. 25, 2018 (PRNewswire) The U.S. housing market has gained back all $9 trillion in value it lost when the market collapsed, but the uneven nature of the crisis and subsequent recovery has left many housing markets trailing behind, while others surge further ahead.

Zillow Logo

More than half of the nation’s largest housing markets have regained all of the value lost during the recession, with the typical U.S. home worth $55,200 more than it was at the bottom of the housing bust, according to a new Zillow® report.

When the housing bubble burst in 2007, home values plummeted, and the typical American home lost 23 percent of its value. Since then, national home values have returned to their previous level, but the recovery has not been the same in all regions of the country. West Coast markets have seen the strongest gains in home value, driven by healthy job growth and limited inventory exacerbated by limitations on new construction. The Sand States that saw the biggest losses when the housing market crashed have yet to fully recover.

The median home in both Las Vegas and San Jose lost about $190,000 during the housing crisis. However, the Las Vegas housing market was hit especially hard during the recession – that $190,000 equaled a 62 percent loss in value – and its recovery is still lagging, with home values only recovering $131,000 so far. In San Jose, homes have gained $615,100 in value since the crisis, more than three times what was lost.

“A decade after the financial crisis, the scars of the housing bust are still with us,” said Zillow Senior Economist Aaron Terrazas. “The gap between the metros with the strongest and weakest housing market recoveries is as wide as it has ever been. The California Bay Area’s housing recovery stands out when compared to other markets that saw similar home value appreciation because it has more than regained all of its lost value. Strong, high-paying job markets and persistently limited inventory sent prices skyrocketing, leading to the Bay Area having the most valuable housing markets in the country.”

Nationally, home values hit their lowest point in December 2012. Individual markets bottomed out between July 2011 and December 2012.

Chart

Denver home values fell just over 9 percent during the housing crisis, less than half of what the typical American home lost in value, largely because the Denver housing market never experienced much of a boom during the bubble years. As Denver has emerged as a popular tech hub over the past decade, its home values have climbed rapidly. The median home in Denver is worth $379,500, about 61 percent more than the highest value reached during the mid-2000s bubble.

Chart

Zillow

Zillow is the leading real estate and rental marketplace dedicated to empowering consumers with data, inspiration and knowledge around the place they call home, and connecting them with the best local professionals who can help. In addition, Zillow operates an industry-leading economics and analytics bureau led by Zillow’s Chief Economist Dr. Svenja Gudell. Dr. Gudell and her team of economists and data analysts produce extensive housing data and research covering more than 450 markets at Zillow Real Estate Research. Zillow also sponsors the quarterly Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey, which asks more than 100 leading economists, real estate experts and investment and market strategists to predict the path of the Zillow Home Value Index over the next five years. Launched in 2006, Zillow is owned and operated by Zillow Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: Z and ZG), and headquartered in Seattle.

(i) Value gained is for the median home in each metro.

Rising home prices are putting a strain on the U.S. housing market

Despite rapid price growth in recent years, some homeowners’ mortgages are still underwater

Columbus, OH – Dec. 13, 2017 (PRNewswire) Sustained, rapid home appreciation is weakening the near-term outlook for the U.S. housing market, according to Nationwide’s latest Health of Housing Markets Report (HoHM Report).

Nationwide Logo

“The biggest concern with regard to the housing market in 2017, especially as the year ends, is that persistent price gains are reducing affordability,” said David Berson, Nationwide senior vice president and chief economist. “The housing market is still moving forward thanks to solid job gains, but it’s showing signs of strain. We’re watching to see if household formations, income, job, and mortgage trends can sustain the market’s health.”

House price gains continue to run at a pace well above the long-term average as historically few homes on the market create heightened competition among homebuyers. Job gains, rising incomes, and a healthy mortgage market still support a positive – although slightly less optimistic than last quarter – outlook for the U.S. housing market.

The outlook for the vast majority of regional housing markets across the U.S. remains upbeat as more than 80 percent of metro areas have a positive ranking. Moreover, markets with strong ties to the oil and gas industries are among the most improved in 2017 due to solid job growth and rising housing demand.

The 10 top metro areas in the index are, in order: Waterloo-Cedar Falls, Iowa; Carbondale-Marion, Ill.; Philadelphia; Valdosta, Ga.; The Villages, Fla.; Canton-Massillon, Ohio; Gadsden, Ala.; Little Rock-North Little Rock, Ark.; Trenton, N.J.; and, Morgantown, W.Va.

In order, the bottom 10 are: Rapid City, S.D.; Brunswick, Ga.; Rochester, Minn.; Sioux Falls, S.D.; New Orleans-Metairie, La.; Dallas-Plano-Irving, Texas; Victoria1, Texas; Morristown, Tenn.; Waco, Texas; and, Bangor, Maine.

Underwater despite rapid appreciation

Despite continued rapid home appreciation across the country, nearly a quarter of metro markets have not fully recovered from their price peaks before the housing market crash of a decade ago, including a few that are still off by more than 20 percent.

As a result, homeowners in those markets are more likely to be underwater in their mortgages – even today. The national share of mortgages that have negative equity is near 5 percent. That number doubles for homeowners who live in markets with prices still below their prior peaks.

Major markets that remain below their prior price peaks are (percent below in parenthesis):

  • Las Vegas-Henderson, Nev. (27.7)
  • Bakersfield, Calif. (23.1)
  • Fresno, Calif. (21.5)
  • Tucson, Ariz. (20.3)
  • Orlando-Kissimmee, Fla. (19.7)
  • Camden, N.J. (18.7)
  • Fort Lauderdale, Fla. (16.9)
  • Riverside-San Bernardino, Calif. (16.4)
  • Phoenix-Mesa, Ariz. (16.2)
  • Naples, Fla. (16.2)
  • Stockton-Lodi, Calif. (15.8)
  • West Palm Beach-Boca Raton, Fla. (14.8)
  • Newark, N.J. (14.5)
  • Jacksonville, Fla. (13.1)
  • Detroit-Dearborn, Mich. (12.8)

More information about the HoHM Report, including the methodology used, can be found at blog.nationwide.com/housing. The HoHM Report is released on a quarterly basis online and in print.

About Nationwide

Nationwide, a Fortune 100 company based in Columbus, Ohio, is one of the largest and strongest diversified insurance and financial services organizations in the U.S. and is rated A+ by both A.M. Best and Standard & Poor’s. The company provides a full range of insurance and financial services, including auto, commercial, homeowners, farm and life insurance; public and private sector retirement plans, annuities and mutual funds; banking and mortgages; excess & surplus, specialty and surety; pet, motorcycle and boat insurance. For more information, visit www.nationwide.com.

Nationwide, Nationwide is on your side and the Nationwide N and Eagle are service marks of Nationwide Mutual Insurance Company.

1. There is no measurable impact from Hurricane Harvey on the LIHHM ranking.

Contact:

Ryan Ankrom
(614) 249-5145
ryan.ankrom@nationwide.com

Jordan Fisher
(312) 240-2951
jordan.fisher@edelman.com

BH&J Buy vs. Rent Index Shows Good Deals Harder to Find as U.S. Housing Market Remains Slightly in Buy Territory

Boca Raton, FL – Dec. 5, 2017 (PRNewswire-USNewswire) The really good deals on homes are becoming increasingly harder to find as the U.S. housing market remains ever so slightly in buy territory, according to the latest national index produced by Florida Atlantic University and Florida International University faculty.

FAU Logo

The Beracha, Hardin & Johnson Buy vs. Rent (BH&J) Index shows it is a virtual toss-up as to whether buying or renting would produce greater wealth, on average.

“With exception for parts of the Midwest, most of the ‘buy low’ deals are out of the market,” said Ken Johnson, Ph.D., a real estate economist and one of the index’s creators in FAU’s College of Business. “This does not necessarily mean that it is a bad time to purchase. It simply means that potential purchasers should bargain more aggressively.”

Of the 23 separate metro areas in the BH&J Index, 11 are slightly to moderately in buy territory, while 10 metro areas are slightly to moderately in rent territory. Two cities, Dallas and Denver, remain deep in rent territory, suggesting the potential for what Johnson calls a near-term pricing event. This could indicate a decline in property prices, the likelihood of property transactions falling, property marketing times increasing, or a combination of all three.

Based on numbers from the end of the third quarter of 2017, the latest BH&J Buy vs. Rent Index follows recent S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index scores, which showed home prices rose 6.2 percent over the past year, indicating consistent demand at a time when the inventory of homes has been persistently scarce.

Both the BH&J Index and Case-Shiller Home Price Index employ housing price appreciation from markets around the U.S. Unlike Case-Shiller, the BH&J Index includes additional sources such as rent prices, mortgage rates and alternative investment data streams, among others variables, to indicate why and when housing markets might be changing direction.

“On average, both home and rental prices experienced modest gains in recent months, while financial markets continued to deliver healthy returns and mortgage rates remained low and stable,” said Eli Beracha, Ph.D., co-creator of the index and associate professor in the Hollo School of Real Estate at FIU.

The BH&J Index is published quarterly and is available online at http://business.fau.edu/buyvsrent.

National Association of Realtors®, S&P Global Put Homeownership in Spotlight with “The Future of the U.S. Housing Market” Event

Washington, D.C. – Dec. 1, 2017 (PRNewswire)

WHAT: National Association of Realtors®, S&P Global event on housing and homeownership (OPEN TO PRESS)

WHEN: Wednesday, Dec. 6, 2017 at 9:30 a.m. – 12:30 p.m. EST

WHERE: National Association of Realtors®, 500 New Jersey Avenue NW, 12th Floor, Washington, D.C. 20001

WHO: Speakers include:

  • Dr. Robert Shiller, Sterling Professor Economics, Yale University, and Nobel Prize Winner
  • Elizabeth Mendenhall, president, National Association of Realtors®
  • Dr. Lawrence Yun, chief economist, National Association of Realtors®
  • Senator Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.), member, Senate Banking Committee
  • Congressman Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas), chairman, House Financial Services Committee
  • Dr. Beth Ann Bovino, chief U.S. economist, S&P Global Ratings
  • Jessica Lautz, managing director of survey research and communication, National Association of Realtors®
  • Layla Zaidane, chief operating officer, Millennial Action Project
  • Alex Nowrasteh, immigration policy analyst, Cato Institute
  • Boyd Campbell, real estate professional, Century 21

Panel moderator:

  • Lorraine Woellert, pro financial services reporter, Politico

RSVP: Jon Boughtin, jboughtin@realtors.org, (202) 383-1193

America’s homeownership hovers today around a 50-year low, with low inventory, student debt, affordability and a range of other factors holding back prospective buyers.

NAR logo

On December 6, industry experts and members of the U.S. House and Senate will convene to address those challenges in an event titled “The Future of the U.S. Housing Market.”

Senator Heidi Heitkamp and Chairman Jeb Hensarling will kick off the event with comments on the major issues facing the industry. Both Senator Heitkamp and Congressman Hensarling will take questions immediately following their respective remarks.

Next, Dr. Robert Shiller, Sterling Professor of Economics at Yale University, will offer his insights and perspectives on the state of housing and its economic impact. Dr. Shiller will also take questions immediately following his remarks.

The event will also include a panel on student debt, followed by a panel on housing supply and demand.

This event is open to members of the media. Please e-mail jboughtin@realtors.org or call 202-383-1193 for more information and to RSVP.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

S&P Global is a leading provider of transparent and independent ratings, benchmarks, analytics and data to the capital and commodity markets worldwide. The Company’s divisions include S&P Global Ratings, S&P Global Market Intelligence, S&P Dow Jones Indices and S&P Global Platts. S&P Global has approximately 20,000 employees in 31 countries. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com.

Information about NAR is available at www.nar.realtor.